ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Agua]

Stick with the NHC projected track.They are very good.I doubt any deviation from it over the next 2 or 3 days

Yeah, they're generally pretty good within 2 days.

[Wx_Warrior]

IMHG(gut)O, Gustav is going to take a hard right or left before landfall..which side? dunno.

[Johnny]

Galveston Storm of September 8, 1900.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Johnny"]Galveston Storm of September 8, 1900.


[img]http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/graphics/photos/1900map.gif[/img][/quote]



Wow... that is an attention getter...

[HouTXmetro]

Galveston Storm of September 8, 1900.

Blasphemy! Just like Andrew/Katrina/Mitch/ and Camille, no one should every compare any storm to the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

[Sirius LeWindy]

Galveston Storm of September 8, 1900.

Blasphemy! Just like Andrew/Katrina/Mitch/ and Camille, no one should every compare any storm to the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Add Hazel to that list. I love the posters that want cat 5's with each storm. Just a touch dramatic.

[Ivanhater]

Ok following the upper air soundings on GFS..by the time the NHC enters the gulf..GFS sees a break in the ridge..My own personal thought is the ridge will build back and push her more west, but who knows..out to 4 days now

[KWT]

There is a weakness there which should help to induce a WNW motion but equally there is a upper high edging into the gulf as well. Just like with so many other systems timing is so key.

[Johnny]

Galveston Storm of September 8, 1900.

Blasphemy! Just like Andrew/Katrina/Mitch/ and Camille, no one should every compare any storm to the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

Add Hazel to that list. I love the posters that want cat 5's with each storm. Just a touch dramatic.

I was comparing track, not strength so get over it people. Oh, and the 1900 storm wasn't a cat. 5 btw.

[Wx_Warrior]

That's why EURO was sending Gusy into NE Florida but not recognizes it and pushes west in Corpus. I have this eery feeling that trend will start picking up and models will shift to south/cen texas.

[Ivanhater]

138..we'll see

[yzerfan]

Jason Kelly (good tv weather guy out of Panama City Beach) says that right now it looks like a Louisiana storm to him. (subject to change and all)

[LSU2001]

We don't want it so ya'll can have it. If not then we will hope and pray that Gus would prefer Mexican food and find a non populated coastal area and then dissipate harmlessly. (I said hope and pray )

But I have to agree with the met. Based on years of watching canes from this area esp. the Yuc. channel a La. Miss. or a La./Tx storm would not suprise me at all.
Tim

[jlauderdal]

138..we'll see

i see a whole sack full of lows in that picture

[Shoshana]

Personally i don't think looking at previous hurricane tracks really would help figure out Gustav's future path since we don't know what weather conditions existed so long ago. Better off watching models.

That said, I don't think the path is as close to the Galveston 1900 path as it is to the Galveston 1915 path, the one that hit after the island was built up and the saewall installed.



I don't think Gus will be a Texas hurricane though. But that's just my opinion.

[KWT]

If you want a historical path in recent years that you can compare to the synoptic pattern my advice is look up Lili 2002.

[Wx_Warrior]

New GFS??? Florida???

[sunnyday]

If the trough that is going to push the hurricane to the west had not formed, would this storm have gone more toward SE FL?
I feel so bad for those who are going to be affected by this one. I sincerely hope it doesn't hit N.O. again.

[AL Chili Pepper]

If you want a historical path in recent years that you can compare to the synoptic pattern my advice is look up Lili 2002.

That does look like a good analogy right now. I've been thinking south central or SW LA would be in my personal center cone. Another storm in the back of my mind is Rita, when a lot of the mets were thinking northern MX or southern TX at the onset. It all depends on how strong that ridge builds in.

[Rainband]

New GFS??? Florida???

?? I doubt that model.