ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS has nailed a few...I doubt the CMC....We all have our doubts with Gustav.

[karenfromheaven]

Jason Kelly (good tv weather guy out of Panama City Beach) says that right now it looks like a Louisiana storm to him. (subject to change and all)

He just put up a model plot during the 6 PM weather segment and explained how he is currently discarding the NOGAPS and GFDN solutions because of their poor performance during Fay.

[Weatherfreak000]

Can the Texas boys stop throwing around old hurricanes as if that has anything to do with Gustav?


It's frankly nothing but scare tactics. All I wanna see are facts and justified opinions because if you comb through history im certain you can find a comparison storm making landfall in every area of the Gulf.

[BigB0882]

Jason Kelly (good tv weather guy out of Panama City Beach) says that right now it looks like a Louisiana storm to him. (subject to change and all)

He just put up a model plot during the 6 PM weather segment and explained how he is currently discarding the NOGAPS and GFDN solutions because of their poor performance during Fay.

I will be the first to admit that I don't know as much as most here but is this a smart thing to do? Fay was a different system and even though it was only a week or so ago, it was still a different time. We aren't in a vaccuum here. They may have missed the ball on Fay but they could very well get it right the next time around. Just because you miss once doesn't mean you will miss forever.

[Wx_Warrior]

Believe you me...I 'aint' throwing around anything...Been through 1 too many. Most models trend our way...Why would someone do that?

[Ivanhater]

18Z Nogaps

[jlauderdal]

Jason Kelly (good tv weather guy out of Panama City Beach) says that right now it looks like a Louisiana storm to him. (subject to change and all)

He just put up a model plot during the 6 PM weather segment and explained how he is currently discarding the NOGAPS and GFDN solutions because of their poor performance during Fay.

interesting, are you sure that is what he said, he discounts the models from the previous storm that performed poorly...i find that odd

[cycloneye]

wxman57,ivanhater etc,18z GFDL more west:

WHXX04 KWBC 262331
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.3 72.7 310./ 8.9
6 18.6 73.4 295./ 6.9
12 19.0 74.1 301./ 7.8
18 18.8 75.4 262./12.3
24 18.6 75.8 248./ 4.7
30 18.8 76.5 287./ 6.3
36 18.5 77.3 250./ 8.4
42 18.6 78.1 275./ 7.4
48 18.5 78.9 266./ 7.7
54 18.8 79.6 292./ 7.3
60 18.9 80.5 280./ 8.4
66 19.4 81.6 290./11.5
72 19.7 82.5 292./ 9.1
78 20.4 83.4 305./10.9
84 21.3 84.7 307./14.8
90 22.2 85.9 305./14.7
96 23.2 87.3 307./15.8
102 24.1 88.5 308./14.5
108 25.3 89.9 309./17.1
114 26.3 91.2 306./16.1
120 27.4 92.5 309./15.6
126 28.4 93.7 310./14.6

[Ivanhater]

[perk]

Can the Texas boys stop throwing around old hurricanes as if that has anything to do with Gustav?


It's frankly nothing but scare tactics. All I wanna see are facts and justified opinions because if you comb through history im certain you can find a comparison storm making landfall in every area of the Gulf.

When did you get promoted to moderator, if you don't like post from us Texas boy's cover your eyes when you see one.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Looks like the NOGAPS is a tad west too.

[KWT]

Very interesting run indeed, now suggesting a Texas strike which seems to be the best option on the table given the models, not far off from Galveston if you Extrap. that motion, looks like we are coming into much better agreement now about the track.

[Wx_Warrior]

OT: Those Images from Ivanhater don't show up on my i-book...

[AL Chili Pepper]

OT: Those Images from Ivanhater don't show up on my i-book...

you have to unblock them. See if you have a bar pop up asking you if you want to unblock them.

[caneman]

5 days out - that track will change, I don't care how much in agreeance they are in another couple days they'll all be in agreeance on a Mexico or Louisiana strike.

[KWT]

Wx_Warrior, nogaps 18z shows the system over NOLA, all models seem to be coming into agreement between LA and S.Texas, that seems to be the main risk zone right now.

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting shift in the GFDL. NHC now on the eastern end of model consensus so expect a westward shift tonight.

[O Town]

OT: Those Images from Ivanhater don't show up on my i-book...

you have to unblock them. See if you have a bar pop up asking you if you want to unblock them.

They don't work for me either, and I keep hitting the bar telling it to unblock. Oh well....

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps is around NO...the trend is west of all the models..well except GFS, so I think west GOM is becoming more likely

[jlauderdal]

OT: Those Images from Ivanhater don't show up on my i-book...

unfortunately i get the image of his avatar but not the posted ones...