ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[caneman]

WOuldn't be at all surpried to see it slip on into Mexico. Many of these storms when they get to going West like this is forecast to will just plow into Cancun or Cozumel and over into Mexico. Just hard for me to get excited about this storm yet, lots of land interaction and possibly more to come. Tell me when it's in the Gulf.

[jlauderdal]

WOuldn't be at all surpried to see it slip on into Mexico. Many of these storms when they get to going West like this is forecast to will just plow into Cancun or Cozumel and over into Mexico. Just hard for me to get excited about this storm yet, lots of land interaction and possibly more to come. Tell me when it's in the Gulf.

ok, mods will block you from posting until its in the gulf, see you this weekend

[ROCK]

The NOGAPS has been in RIGHT field for days now....very jacked up...unless its seeing something none of the other see...who knows...

[caneman]

WOuldn't be at all surpried to see it slip on into Mexico. Many of these storms when they get to going West like this is forecast to will just plow into Cancun or Cozumel and over into Mexico. Just hard for me to get excited about this storm yet, lots of land interaction and possibly more to come. Tell me when it's in the Gulf.

ok, mods will block you from posting until its in the gulf, see you this weekend

Almost wasn't worth replying to this post but I will. Don't like my opinion don't read it.

[vaffie]

18Z Model Run conclusion: GFDL, NOGAPS moving west. Nogaps has moved significantly westward from having landfall in Florida at 85W to having landfall in Louisiana at 89W--a change of 250 miles. The 18Z GFDL has also shifted westward--by 170 miles, so that it would now landfall in Texas. Now we wait to see what the HWRF says.

[Wx_Warrior]

Talked to a great Texas pro met today (not disclosing and not my brother) and he believes a shift west into the Corpus/South Texas area before it's all said and done.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18 HWRF shoots the Channel and has here in the Central GOM in an imposing postion...

[jlauderdal]

WOuldn't be at all surpried to see it slip on into Mexico. Many of these storms when they get to going West like this is forecast to will just plow into Cancun or Cozumel and over into Mexico. Just hard for me to get excited about this storm yet, lots of land interaction and possibly more to come. Tell me when it's in the Gulf.

ok, mods will block you from posting until its in the gulf, see you this weekend

Almost wasn't worth replying to this post but I will. Don't like my opinion don't read it.

check your inbox

[ROCK]

Talked to a great Texas pro met today (not disclosing and not my brother) and he believes a shift west into the Corpus/South Texas area before it's all said and done.

Not your brother?? Come on, you got the inside scoop....wheres it really going?

Seriously, I would not bet against that area at all...but niether would I NO or SW LA...

[caneman]

A track to Mexico wouldn't surpise me at this point. This thing will need to stay away from land to amount to much. Reminds me a lot about Fay. Fay burnt me out and I'm sure alot of Floridians. Tracking her was a pain in butt and she never amounted to much wind wise. Every time you thought she was going to ramp up she just didn't. Although she caused lots of flooding problems here in Florida. It was good to see the sunshine again.. Wonder if Gustav will be the same way. Not wishing for a major but would like to track one that doesn't keep interacting with land.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF animation.A cat 2 entering the GOM ending south of Louisiana.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[ronjon]

Ok, I'm seeing something in the 18Z GFS run that might be big..I emphasize might because I haven't seen it in other model runs yet. At the mid-levels, there is a developing weakness now in the ridge between FL and the western GOM that begins in 48 hrs and lasts through about 96 hrs. This draws up a weak low in the GFS (and would certainly move a strong storm poleward) northward very close to the west coast of FL. After about the 96 hrs, the ridging builds over the northern gulf coast and then envelops the storm and traps it under a ridge while Gus is in the eastern GOM offshore Tampa. The ridge then builds in from the east and pushes the storm west along the northern gulf toward La/Tx. This setup is somewhat similar to Elena (1985). Not sure if it'll happen, but if that weakness develops per GFS, Gus may track closer to the west coast of FL (turn north may occur earlier than western Cuba).

[haml8]

Can the Texas boys stop throwing around old hurricanes as if that has anything to do with Gustav?


It's frankly nothing but scare tactics. All I wanna see are facts and justified opinions because if you comb through history im certain you can find a comparison storm making landfall in every area of the Gulf.

In all fairness, everyone depending on their region brings up old storms. LA (Katrina), FL (Andrew), I agree that we need to stay on topic. It aint just the Texas boys in this forum throwing around pastimes.

[Annie Oakley]

Can the Texas boys stop throwing around old hurricanes as if that has anything to do with Gustav?


It's frankly nothing but scare tactics. All I wanna see are facts and justified opinions because if you comb through history im certain you can find a comparison storm making landfall in every area of the Gulf.

No boys in Texas.....check out the Texas Governor's Office of Emergency Management Situation Reports-oh, and also please remember we absorbed a quarter of a million Katrina evacuees with pleasure! Stay calm.....

[Weatherfreak000]

Can the Texas boys stop throwing around old hurricanes as if that has anything to do with Gustav?


It's frankly nothing but scare tactics. All I wanna see are facts and justified opinions because if you comb through history im certain you can find a comparison storm making landfall in every area of the Gulf.

No boys in Texas.....check out the Texas Governor's Office of Emergency Management Situation Reports-oh, and also please remember we absorbed a quarter of a million Katrina evacuees with pleasure! Stay calm.....

I'm not making this into an argument if anyone from Texas was offended, I can only state they shouldn't be.

The only point I was trying to make is Climatologically, a storm can go ANYWHERE from this area in the GOM, at this time. This simply isn't an October-like situation where Climatology dominates forecasting. The only reason I called out the specific group was simple...they were the only one doing it.

As far as Katrina evacuees...huh? I'm not even sure how to answer that.

[Annie Oakley]

Can the Texas boys stop throwing around old hurricanes as if that has anything to do with Gustav?


It's frankly nothing but scare tactics. All I wanna see are facts and justified opinions because if you comb through history im certain you can find a comparison storm making landfall in every area of the Gulf.

No boys in Texas.....check out the Texas Governor's Office of Emergency Management Situation Reports-oh, and also please remember we absorbed a quarter of a million Katrina evacuees with pleasure! Stay calm.....

I'm not making this into an argument if anyone from Texas was offended, I can only state they shouldn't be.

The only point I was trying to make is Climatologically, a storm can go ANYWHERE from this area in the GOM, at this time. This simply isn't an October-like situation where Climatology dominates forecasting. The only reason I called out the specific group was simple...they were the only one doing it.

As far as Katrina evacuees...huh? I'm not even sure how to answer that.

Sorry-I guess I did not really address your point-that there are past storms being brought up. I agree with you. Today is today and now is now....I see you capitalized 'climatologically' -is this a trend in weather discussions these days? I guess this subject could be a new forum! I did take umbrage with the term 'boys'-I think at this point we are all a little too sensitive lol....thank you for clarifying.

[Sjones]

As far as Katrina evacuees, Texas helped provide shelter, food, clothing and many other things until Rita came along.

[dwg71]

GFDL seem pretty strange, it takes the most southern course and then sprints due northwest for two days. Anybody put a calculator to it and see what type of speed it would take to cover that distance in two days.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Stormavoider]

Speaking of climo, Don't forget Ernesto