ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Annie Oakley]

As far as Katrina evacuees, Texas helped provide shelter, food, clothing and many other things until Rita came along.

Oh gee-this is not what this forum is about...this is for model runs but I have to say that Texas never stopped helping Katrina evacuees. Sadly enough, when Rita came, many Texans were resenting Katrina folks, and some insurance adjustors in East Texas were met with a gun pointed! Jealousy and resentments abounded. Sorry for off-topic!

[ROCK]

GFDL run is concerning but thanks goodness its many days away and will change......

[attallaman]

Can the Texas boys stop throwing around old hurricanes as if that has anything to do with Gustav?


It's frankly nothing but scare tactics. All I wanna see are facts and justified opinions because if you comb through history im certain you can find a comparison storm making landfall in every area of the Gulf.

No boys in Texas.....check out the Texas Governor's Office of Emergency Management Situation Reports-oh, and also please remember we absorbed a quarter of a million Katrina evacuees with pleasure! Stay calm.....

I certainly did appreciate your state's hospitality while having had to evacuate to your state from Mississippi after Katrina. Katy was very nice to us during our stay and so was the staff at the Marriott in Katy.

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Storm? What storm?

[gboudx]

GFDL run is concerning but thanks goodness its many days away and will change......

A Cat 4 off the Galveston coast is certainly concerning. This is the 3rd westward shift in as many runs of the GFDL. 1st it was heading to the mouth of the Miss, then towards South/Central Louisiana, and now towards the upper-Tx coast. I'm looking forward to the next run to see if there is a further westward shift.

[cycloneye]

Consensus now almost certain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like the central and western Gulf coast will need to watch this one closely. It will definitely be interesting to see how this all plays out over the next 5-7 days..

[sunny]

Almost certain in what way Luis?

[cycloneye]

Almost certain in what way Luis?

What I meant was Gustav enters the Gulf of Mexico.After that its more uncertainty.

[sunny]

Almost certain in what way Luis?

What I mean was Gustav enters the Gulf of Mexico.After that its more uncertainty.

Okay, thanks Luis

[sphelps8681]

Can the Texas boys stop throwing around old hurricanes as if that has anything to do with Gustav?


It's frankly nothing but scare tactics. All I wanna see are facts and justified opinions because if you comb through history im certain you can find a comparison storm making landfall in every area of the Gulf.

No boys in Texas.....check out the Texas Governor's Office of Emergency Management Situation Reports-oh, and also please remember we absorbed a quarter of a million Katrina evacuees with pleasure! Stay calm.....

I'm not making this into an argument if anyone from Texas was offended, I can only state they shouldn't be.

The only point I was trying to make is Climatologically, a storm can go ANYWHERE from this area in the GOM, at this time. This simply isn't an October-like situation where Climatology dominates forecasting. The only reason I called out the specific group was simple...they were the only one doing it.

As far as Katrina evacuees...huh? I'm not even sure how to answer that.

Probably because the East Coast boys no that it is not likely it will go there, but you never no. Everyone should be prepared on the Gulf Coast. Especially with the model runs.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Code: Select all

FLIGHT TWO
       A. 27/0000Z -- NOAA 49
       B. NOAA9 0407A CYCLONE
       C. 26/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT


I assume this data has made the 0Z models? It looks like the was scheduled to depart at 1730 today. I'm not exactly sure how the G-IV works, but if this data was incorporated into the global models, the 0Z models running now should be informative.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Code: Select all

FLIGHT TWO
       A. 27/0000Z -- NOAA 49
       B. NOAA9 0407A CYCLONE
       C. 26/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT


I assume this data has made the 0Z models? It looks like the was scheduled to depart at 1730 today. I'm not exactly sure how the G-IV works, but if this data was incorporated into the global models, the 0Z models running now should be informative.

Edit to add: Nevermind

Code: Select all

3. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION WITH A SCHEDULED 26/1730Z TAKEOFF
       CANCELED AT 26/1110Z. P-3 MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 26/2000Z
       AND 27/0800Z CANCELED AT 26/1300Z.



[Sirius LeWindy]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Ships has a Cat 2 after 120 hours. Only GFDL shows a real major monster. Are we sure about the rapid development of this storm?

[karenfromheaven]

Jason Kelly (good tv weather guy out of Panama City Beach) says that right now it looks like a Louisiana storm to him. (subject to change and all)

He just put up a model plot during the 6 PM weather segment and explained how he is currently discarding the NOGAPS and GFDN solutions because of their poor performance during Fay.

interesting, are you sure that is what he said, he discounts the models from the previous storm that performed poorly...i find that odd

Yes, he said specifically that the Navy models did not do well with Fay, and he was therefore discarding them in his overall evaluation of the model track consensus. I very much appreciate Jason's reporting, especially during hurricane season. He does more than repeat the NHC party line during his weather segments. He shows us model plots and discusses his take on the synoptics. I like his independent streak, and I appreciate his insight and willingness to buck the trend if he feels it is in error.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know this has been asked a million times, but I just can't remember. At what times do the model runs come out throughout the day. Thanks.

[caneman]

[/quote]
He just put up a model plot during the 6 PM weather segment and explained how he is currently discarding the NOGAPS and GFDN solutions because of their poor performance during Fay.[/quote]

interesting, are you sure that is what he said, he discounts the models from the previous storm that performed poorly...i find that odd[/quote]
Yes, he said specifically that the Navy models did not do well with Fay, and he was therefore discarding them in his overall evaluation of the model track consensus. I very much appreciate Jason's reporting, especially during hurricane season. He does more than repeat the NHC party line during his weather segments. He shows us model plots and discusses his take on the synoptics. I like his independent streak, and I appreciate his insight and willingness to buck the trend if he feels it is in error.[/quote]

Yeah, I think that is the same Jason Kelly that use to (maybe still does) post at Central Florida hurricane Center. CFHC. Seemed very knowledgable and a very nice guy.

[johngaltfla]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

Ships has a Cat 2 after 120 hours. Only GFDL shows a real major monster. Are we sure about the rapid development of this storm?

Based on the 86 to 90 degree temps in the GOM, it would not shock anyone. Our local mets commented on how fast this storm could, I emphasize "could", intensify.

[Stephanie]

18z GFDL



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Oh geez Luis! That loop is making me ill just thinking of it if it's true!

[lonelymike]

He just put up a model plot during the 6 PM weather segment and explained how he is currently discarding the NOGAPS and GFDN solutions because of their poor performance during Fay.[/quote]

interesting, are you sure that is what he said, he discounts the models from the previous storm that performed poorly...i find that odd[/quote]
Yes, he said specifically that the Navy models did not do well with Fay, and he was therefore discarding them in his overall evaluation of the model track consensus. I very much appreciate Jason's reporting, especially during hurricane season. He does more than repeat the NHC party line during his weather segments. He shows us model plots and discusses his take on the synoptics. I like his independent streak, and I appreciate his insight and willingness to buck the trend if he feels it is in error.[/quote]

Yeah, I think that is the same Jason Kelly that use to (maybe still does) post at Central Florida hurricane Center. CFHC. Seemed very knowledgable and a very nice guy.[/quote]


I agree Jason is a hell of a forecaster. One of the best tv mets around.