ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[x-y-no]

Actually, here's the 18Z sounding:



5880m - so the GFS initialization is dead on.

[Annie Oakley]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the State of Texas is now activated Emergency plans for a major hurricane.

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 082608.pdf

Also I saw that Texas is going into H-120 mode. That was posted by Scotta on KHOU.com. I'm not exactly sure what H-120 is. Does anybody?

Prolly 120 hours?

[HURAKAN]

[johngaltfla]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the State of Texas is now activated Emergency plans for a major hurricane.

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 082608.pdf

Also I saw that Texas is going into H-120 mode. That was posted by Scotta on KHOU.com. I'm not exactly sure what H-120 is. Does anybody?

It's Stage 1 of their emergency activation process. They know if a monster storm approaches that they only have 72 hours so they start this stage to put people into position.

They learned a lot from Rita. Got that from an emergency responder in Houston.

[O Town]

Nice clear eye coming off the coast.

[CrazyC83]

What is that blob over Puerto Rico, a separate system?

[Emmett_Brown]

I'm still trying to wrap my mind around how this storm could possibly move west as fast as forecast ...

Here's the initialization of the 18z GFS at 500mb:



Notice the 588 line passing through Jamaica and extending well south.

Here's 24 hours:



Note the ridge extending way south. Also note where it has the 500mb low and vort max over Haiti.

Now I'm not saying that Gustav will stall over Haiti. What I am saying is that I think the GFS (and hence the GFDL and HWRF) is moving it too fast to the west - straight into a mid-level ridge. A westward motion looks likely to me, but in my experience with this kind of situation it should be quite slow.

I'd love it if one of the pros would explain to me why I'm crazy here ... still trying to learn after all these years.

I would agree with you...I think its blocked it for now as well. I still see some slooooooow movement, but your right...good call!

Now if this is the case, what will the slow motion due to change the over all track?

Actually, if you look at the official NHC forecast track, they have it going pretty darn slow for the first 36 hours or so... still under the Eastern part of Cuba until 2pm on Thursday... so I think their track already accounts for the early slowness.

[ALhurricane]

Nice clear eye coming off the coast.

I don't think that is an eye, rather just a decay in the convection.

[cheezyWXguy]

What is that blob over Puerto Rico, a separate system?

No it is part of the system. In fact, it will likely absorb its energy in the next few hours. Watch for it to rapidly dissipate and an eventual increase in gustav's convection.

[Smurfwicked]

Sure looks like that GFDL model is dead on the latest trend of a more westard movement at least in the short term of things. I'm also just noticing how its shifted further west close to Galveston. However I wouldn't rely on models that far out.

[deltadog03]

This looks like its getting beat up pretty good right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Nice clear eye coming off the coast.

I don't think that is an eye, rather just a decay in the convection.

Well, that is where the center is, so technically it could be counted as an eye. However I wouldnt call it one yet since convection is now pretty shallow. Nonetheless, the center is now offshore and convection should eventually increase again, allowing the storm to begin its significant intensification.

[LSU2001]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the State of Texas is now activated Emergency plans for a major hurricane.

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/ ... 082608.pdf

Also I saw that Texas is going into H-120 mode. That was posted by Scotta on KHOU.com. I'm not exactly sure what H-120 is. Does anybody?

It's Stage 1 of their emergency activation process. They know if a monster storm approaches that they only have 72 hours so they start this stage to put people into position.

They learned a lot from Rita. Got that from an emergency responder in Houston.

Just listened to Gov. Bobby Jindal here in Louisiana and WOW he is really not messing around waiting to "see what happens" He activated our Level 3 emergency center (monitor and talk with other officials) and If the storm track continues to look like a Southeast or Southcentral La. hit Bus contracts could be activated Thursday and then he said the Evacs could start Sat. with contraflow (reverse lanes) could start Late Sat. or Sun. While it may well be a false alarm I am glad to see the officials here are not taking the same "wait and see approach they took with Katrina.

It seems that Louisiana officials learned alot from Katrina as well.
Tim

[A1A]

It seems to me they always forecast these systems too far west initially.

[ALhurricane]

Nice clear eye coming off the coast.

I don't think that is an eye, rather just a decay in the convection.

Well, that is where the center is, so technically it could be counted as an eye. However I wouldnt call it one yet since convection is now pretty shallow. Nonetheless, the center is now offshore and convection should eventually increase again, allowing the storm to begin its significant intensification.

Radar suggests that the center is southwest of that hole. It looks like Gustav is taking a due west heading and will go over the entire Haitian peninsula.

[Air Force Met]

Nice clear eye coming off the coast.

I don't think that is an eye, rather just a decay in the convection.

Yep...that's a dead spot in the convection. Its near where the center is...but it isn't an "eye."

[cpdaman]

exactly this is not doing rapid intensification any time soon IMO , it could be morning light before this center is over water

[O Town]

Nice clear eye coming off the coast.

I don't think that is an eye, rather just a decay in the convection.

Yep...that's a dead spot in the convection. Its near where the center is...but it isn't an "eye."

Well it gosh darn fooled me. LOL
Thanks for cluing me in.

[LSU2001]

Sure looks like that GFDL model is dead on the latest trend of a more westard movement at least in the short term of things. I'm also just noticing how its shifted further west close to Galveston. However I wouldn't rely on models that far out.

Boy the nogaps and NGFDL are both showing the true worst case scenario for NOLA. Katrina was not actually the worst case. A strong Cat 3 or 4 storm moving in just west of NOLA around grand isle/timbalier bay would be a nightmare with NOLA getting the strongest surge and NE quadrant of the storm.

[Frank P]

Nice clear eye coming off the coast.

I don't think that is an eye, rather just a decay in the convection.

Yep...that's a dead spot in the convection. Its near where the center is...but it isn't an "eye."

Looking at this loop appears to me the center in still on land.. looks to be right on the NHC forcast point but I think a little early.. says 26/21 utc.. is that 4:00 pm central time the projected time for this mark?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html