ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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deltadog03
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#3101 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:17 pm

Stewart makes me think that he is giving the possible North turn more thought.... Might he be hinting that hook right?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav over SW Haiti

#3102 Postby latemodel25 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:19 pm

hasnt the gfdl performed poorly or I probably should say "not up to par" this season? just something i observed on another site.. anyone care to elaborate on the gfdl performance? thanks.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav over SW Haiti

#3103 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:20 pm

MJA wrote:I thought this was interesting......

THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE
.



Heck it may not even make it that far north and west if this trough comes down quickly.
I think they may be missing something. This storm is either going west into Mexico or hooking NE. I said
that yesterday and I'll stick with it. It still may not even make it into the GOM. There are just
too many things that can change between now and Sunday.
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Re:

#3104 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:20 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Stewart makes me think that he is giving the possible North turn more thought.... Might he be hinting that hook right?


Realize it is still early in the game, but between Stewart and Franklin ... you're talking about a lot of years of hurricane forecasting expertise. We've all read it a million times here but anyone from Mobile to Merida ought to be on the lookout and consider themselves in a 5-7 day cone.
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#3105 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:21 pm

I agree 10 billion percent...VERY VERY VERY early....This is the first time I have heard of all the players on the field...GREAT disco you guys!
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Re:

#3106 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:22 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I like the idea of them mentioning the shear in the GOM. It is obvious. It would be absolutely wonderful if this were to continue in the days ahead as it would shear the system and prevent it from becoming catastrophic, IMO.



This IMO is a very good possibility.
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Re:

#3107 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:23 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Well well the NHC for once is going against what the models are saying. I'm very surprised. I bet they change their mind if the GFDL and other models continue to shift westward. The trough coming down will be the key. They also mention SW shear Gustav may have to deal with in the Gulf for the first time.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad



It's going to be flying way too fast through the Gulf to get very strong anyway. I think they are just erroring on the side of caution just in case...Better to prepare for a strong one and have it be weak, than a weak one and have it be strong.... This won't be a Katrina that's for sure...Too many things going against it, speed of system, shear, etc.....
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#3108 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:23 pm

Portastorm wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Stewart makes me think that he is giving the possible North turn more thought.... Might he be hinting that hook right?


Realize it is still early in the game, but between Stewart and Franklin ... you're talking about a lot of years of hurricane forecasting expertise. We've all read it a million times here but anyone from Mobile to Merida ought to be on the lookout and consider themselves in a 5-7 day cone.


You shouldn't leave off Florida especially with this trough coming down. Especially if Gustav slows or stalls at anytime.
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Re: Re:

#3109 Postby Agua » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:24 pm

Sabanic wrote: Sean my only reason for saying that was that here in Mobile we have had several . . . Opal, Erin, Dennis, Ivan to name a few that were headed basically right in our general area only to slide a tad more to the east close to landfall. Had we gone eastward on any of those it would have been a bad call. JMHO though so take it for what it's worth.


Ahhh yes. The "eastern fade" just short of landfall. Not uncommon for central gulf storms.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav over SW Haiti

#3110 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:25 pm

Stewart makes me think that he is giving the possible North turn more thought.... Might he be hinting that hook right?



Playing it smart and seeing how far the Texas trough plunges. But I think you are answering your own question.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav over SW Haiti

#3111 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:25 pm

To whoever asked, I'm plotting these using Google Earth from coordinates given by the NHC.

Image

If you have the google earth plugin installed you can also view this track here:

http://markalot.org/gearth.html
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#3112 Postby latemodel25 » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:26 pm

this is scary wherever it goes. we all need to keep our fingers crossed for a lower intensification if it does get into the gulf or not. if it doesnt that would mean possibly what? miami? back into the atlantic? what?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav over SW Haiti

#3113 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:26 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
MJA wrote:I thought this was interesting......

THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE
.



Heck it may not even make it that far north and west if this trough comes down quickly.
I think they may be missing something. This storm is either going west into Mexico or hooking NE. I said
that yesterday and I'll stick with it. It still may not even make it into the GOM. There are just
too many things that can change between now and Sunday.


They study this stuff constantly all day long, so I'm sure they know are aware of the trough and probably through experience of past systems and plotting maps, know what they are talking about......I mean don't get me wrong StormCenter, I understand where you are coming from, but sooo many times I often wonder, "how does the NHC think this is going to happen?" and the end they end up being right....
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav over SW Haiti

#3114 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:27 pm

Yep....I'm thinking someone is gonna be surprised this weekend when models shift, or better yet, see Goosy hook a hard right or left.

And sometimes they end up being wrong. No one or model is perfect. Remember that.
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#3115 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:27 pm

There are alot of things coming into play that could provide for big changes in the next couple of days with Gustav. Certainly nothing is set in stone right now. There are scenarios out there that could provide for all kinds of different things happening. And yes, there is a trough coming down from up North. That could be the biggest player of them all. We'll see soon enough.
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Re: Re:

#3116 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:28 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote: It's going to be flying way too fast through the Gulf to get very strong anyway. I think they are just erroring on the side of caution just in case...Better to prepare for a strong one and have it be weak, than a weak one and have it be strong....



Not sure what is giving you that idea. The NHC track has it moving at 12 kts from day 4 to day 5...and they hint (as I was mentioning earlier today) that it should start to slow down on day 5.

So...not sure what you are looking at.
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Re:

#3117 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:28 pm

deltadog03 wrote:I agree 10 billion percent...VERY VERY VERY early....This is the first time I have heard of all the players on the field...GREAT disco you guys!


It was a discussion that covered every aspect of the features expected in the forecast period.A complete discussion indeed.
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Re: Re:

#3118 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:I agree 10 billion percent...VERY VERY VERY early....This is the first time I have heard of all the players on the field...GREAT disco you guys!


It was a discussion that covered every aspect of the features expected in the forecast period.A complete discussion indeed.


That's why it is good to have Stacey Stewart on the clock. He's the best there...IMO.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#3119 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:33 pm

NHC eye is WNW of that dry spot in the arm of Haiti:


Image
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Re: Re:

#3120 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 26, 2008 10:34 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Well well the NHC for once is going against what the models are saying. I'm very surprised. I bet they change their mind if the GFDL and other models continue to shift westward. The trough coming down will be the key. They also mention SW shear Gustav may have to deal with in the Gulf for the first time.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad



It's going to be flying way too fast through the Gulf to get very strong anyway. I think they are just erroring on the side of caution just in case...Better to prepare for a strong one and have it be weak, than a weak one and have it be strong.... This won't be a Katrina that's for sure...Too many things going against it, speed of system, shear, etc.....


Where in the world do you get this idea from?
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