ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

this is scary wherever it goes. we all need to keep our fingers crossed for a lower intensification if it does get into the gulf or not. if it doesnt that would mean possibly what? miami? back into the atlantic? what?

Not as "scary" if the SW shear mentioned in the GOM is more pronounced.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's going to be flying way too fast through the Gulf to get very strong anyway. I think they are just erroring on the side of caution just in case...Better to prepare for a strong one and have it be weak, than a weak one and have it be strong....

Not sure what is giving you that idea. The NHC track has it moving at 12 kts from day 4 to day 5...and they hint (as I was mentioning earlier today) that it should start to slow down on day 5.

So...not sure what you are looking at.

Thanx for your comments Air Force Met. It's just that when I remember some of the strongest storms in the past, they always seemed to be moving slower...I mean, haven't there been cases where they were creating their own shear due to their speed???
As far as day 5 is concerned and it slowing down, I'm sorry I missed that. I'm still trying to pull up the latest discussion to read about that, just having some computer issues at the moment....

[cheezyWXguy]

To whoever asked, I'm plotting these using Google Earth from coordinates given by the NHC.



If you have the google earth plugin installed you can also view this track here:

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

I notice its now offshore. That would explain the new blow-up on the north side now.

[Weatherfreak000]

The NHC gave me a perfectly well orchestrated reasoning as to why they still see this a LA-Eastward storm.


Awaiting the 00Z Models with great interest however...even the NHC will have to jump ship if these models keep shifting westward.

[latemodel25]

this is scary wherever it goes. we all need to keep our fingers crossed for a lower intensification if it does get into the gulf or not. if it doesnt that would mean possibly what? miami? back into the atlantic? what?

Not as "scary" if the SW shear mentioned in the GOM is more pronounced.

the shear will rip it apart hopefully correct or no? this kinda stinks trying to plan a weekend! NOrleans= out, Keys=out, orlando=maybe. probably might be a good idea to just do nothing but sit on this forum

[Stormcenter]

I thought this was interesting......

THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE.

Heck it may not even make it that far north and west if this trough comes down quickly.
I think they may be missing something. This storm is either going west into Mexico or hooking NE. I said
that yesterday and I'll stick with it. It still may not even make it into the GOM. There are just
too many things that can change between now and Sunday.

They study this stuff constantly all day long, so I'm sure they know are aware of the trough and probably through experience of past systems and plotting maps, know what they are talking about......I mean don't get me wrong StormCenter, I understand where you are coming from, but sooo many times I often wonder, "how does the NHC think this is going to happen?" and the end they end up being right....

No offense to the NHC because I know they have a very tough job but they have been wrong before this far out.
We won't mention the K storm that was suppose to go into Florida 3-4 days out. My point is we are all prone to make mistakes at some time it's just part of being a human being. Yeah maybe the computers are wrong trending west and they're right. My question is how can these $100 million plus computers be all wrong if they continue to trend westward? Hey just throwing it out there.

[Duddy]

The NHC gave me a perfectly well orchestrated reasoning as to why they still see this a LA-Eastward storm.


Awaiting the 00Z Models with great interest however...even the NHC will have to jump ship if these models keep shifting westward.

Well, they did say that the official track is right of the guidance. You could get lucky.

I wish I had the will power to turn off this PC and just wait until Thursday or Friday to look again.

[fasterdisaster]

Any reports of death on Haiti? If not I expect them soon.

[HouTXmetro]

The NHC gave me a perfectly well orchestrated reasoning as to why they still see this a LA-Eastward storm.


Awaiting the 00Z Models with great interest however...even the NHC will have to jump ship if these models keep shifting westward.

Well, they did say that the official track is right of the guidance. You could get lucky.

I wish I had the will power to turn off this PC and just wait until Thursday or Friday to look again.

LOL, me too. I need to see the spagetti plot of models.

[Weatherfreak000]

The NHC gave me a perfectly well orchestrated reasoning as to why they still see this a LA-Eastward storm.


Awaiting the 00Z Models with great interest however...even the NHC will have to jump ship if these models keep shifting westward.

Well, they did say that the official track is right of the guidance. You could get lucky.

I wish I had the will power to turn off this PC and just wait until Thursday or Friday to look again.

Could get lucky? Lol. To have THAT?


For your sake, i'm going to take that as a joke.

[zaqxsw75050]

I thought this was interesting......

THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE.

NHC was talking about the speed of the system, not the landfall location.

[Air Force Met]

Thanx for your comments Air Force Met. It's just that when I remember some of the strongest storms in the past, they always seemed to be moving slower...I mean, haven't there been cases where they were creating their own shear due to their speed???
As far as day 5 is concerned and it slowing down, I'm sorry I missed that. I'm still trying to pull up the latest discussion to read about that, just having some computer issues at the moment....

You don't want them moving at 20 kts or more for rapid intensification (but you can still get steady intensification...and maybe even a rare case of RI at that speed). However, 12 kts is normal. Felix ramped up last year moving at 16 kts. Rita was moving at 11-12 kts when she bombed...and Dean was moving at 17 kts when he became a Cat 4....and 17 kts when he became a 5.

[njweather]

Any reports of death on Haiti? If not I expect them soon.

Unfortunately, yes...

"Hurricane Gustav slammed into Haiti, killing at least five as it lashed the desperately poor Caribbean nation with powerful winds and heavy rain"
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gbZ ... MvY-d6nbxg

[Weatherfreak000]

I thought this was interesting......

THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE
MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
UNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE.

NHC was talking about the speed of the system, not the landfall location.

True, but that doesn't imply much considering it doesn't reflect the Official Track. It's in the same spot that far out without a westward shift. That somewhat implies they are disregarding those solutions.

[Frank P]

Posted from Bob Brecks blog, NOLA weather forecaster

""However, tonight's run of our VIPIR model (yes we pay Baron's Services to use it) indicates Gustav will make a northward turn on Friday across Cuba and head up the west coast of Florida. To me. our key day will be Friday. By then Gustav will either be heading where NHC puts it (still not in Gulf) and by then we'll need to start making decisions. IF VIPIR is correct, then the danger will be more to our east. The 3rd scenario could take Gustav farther to the south into the Yucatan.""

http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/

personnally not a big fan of viper but like some models every now and then it gets one right...

[fasterdisaster]

Thanx for your comments Air Force Met. It's just that when I remember some of the strongest storms in the past, they always seemed to be moving slower...I mean, haven't there been cases where they were creating their own shear due to their speed???
As far as day 5 is concerned and it slowing down, I'm sorry I missed that. I'm still trying to pull up the latest discussion to read about that, just having some computer issues at the moment....

You don't want them moving at 20 kts or more for rapid intensification (but you can still get steady intensification...and maybe even a rare case of RI at that speed). However, 12 kts is normal. Felix ramped up last year moving at 16 kts. Rita was moving at 11-12 kts when she bombed...and Dean was moving at 17 kts when he became a Cat 4....and 17 kts when he became a 5.

And just to add another I think Dennis was going 14-15 kts.

[stormy1970al]

http://www.nbc15online.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=5b8e6ac6-4744-45d1-b27d-eb5c5411154c

Jim Loznicka, NBC 15 Chief Meteorologist states it well in this line

Long range forecasts still plot this hurricane to be possibly centered in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico come Sunday afternoon. As of Tuesday night, we are in the 5 day forecast cone for Gustav! Bottom Line: it is too early to project Gustav's path! By Friday, you can turn your attention to this storm.

In the meantime, you may want to go ahead and stock up on water and canned goods, while the stores still have them in stock, if you feel uneasy about the hurricane. It may not be a bad idea to fill up your car and idle gas cans around the house too! Have you seen the latest oil futures charts today? Because of Gustav, gas prices will start a sharp peak again this weekend...so filling up now will save you money and the hassle!

[Nederlander]

Posted from Bob Brecks blog, NOLA weather forecaster

""However, tonight's run of our VIPIR model (yes we pay Baron's Services to use it) indicates Gustav will make a northward turn on Friday across Cuba and head up the west coast of Florida. To me. our key day will be Friday. By then Gustav will either be heading where NHC puts it (still not in Gulf) and by then we'll need to start making decisions. IF VIPIR is correct, then the danger will be more to our east. The 3rd scenario could take Gustav farther to the south into the Yucatan.""

http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/

personnally not a big fan of viper but like some models every now and then it gets one right...

dont see this happening IMO.. nothing suggests that ridge breaking down.. anything can happen this far out, but the models have trended more to the west with each update..

[lost cause]

While I certainly agree with a previous comment that forecasting a storm's path should never be based on Climo, I do think that Climo can give historical trends of where storms tend to go at certain times of the year.

With that said, the tracks that pop out to me are the 1900 and 1915 hurricanes that went into Galveston. They are both fairly similar to the path that Gustav has taken thus far, with the 1900 track being perhaps the most similar.

Galveston had a propensity to get hit with major hurricanes in the early 1900s, a trend that waned in much of the rest of the century with a few notable exceptions like Alicia.

I guess all of this is a fancy way of saying that Galveston would appear to be long overdue for a major 'cane to hit the island in the month of September.

I hate to say this (and I live on the Island): Yes, I believe we're overdue for something. The time of year this system is coming into play (late Aug - early Sept) along with the track it's taking gives me the willies.

I'm glad to see that TX is taking it seriously this early. The major problem that plagued the Hou/Galv area during the Rita Evac was that there was a lack of coordination between the counties along I45N. We got stuck in some of the disaster that it was, but luckily we back-roaded outta there and got to Beaumont then north to my folks' place -- in the Sabine River valley. Anyway, both N.O. and Hou/Galv have learned greatly from their respective experiences (though some people in N. Hou/Woodlands evac'd to NW La and Ark. during Rita -- "Katrina Fever," if you will). I hope (should we HAVE to have) any future evac will be much smoother and not so atrocious as the last one. (A friend of my wife took 50 hrs to make it from Houston to Dallas.)

[CrazyC83]

Thanx for your comments Air Force Met. It's just that when I remember some of the strongest storms in the past, they always seemed to be moving slower...I mean, haven't there been cases where they were creating their own shear due to their speed???
As far as day 5 is concerned and it slowing down, I'm sorry I missed that. I'm still trying to pull up the latest discussion to read about that, just having some computer issues at the moment....

You don't want them moving at 20 kts or more for rapid intensification (but you can still get steady intensification...and maybe even a rare case of RI at that speed). However, 12 kts is normal. Felix ramped up last year moving at 16 kts. Rita was moving at 11-12 kts when she bombed...and Dean was moving at 17 kts when he became a Cat 4....and 17 kts when he became a 5.

And just to add another I think Dennis was going 14-15 kts.

Charley bombed out when he was moving about 20 kt and Opal was going close to 25 kt I believe. Although the ultra-extreme intensification is usually in slower storms - Wilma was only going about 5 kt at the time, Gilbert less than 10 kt and the Labor Day Hurricane was only going about 5 kt as well (I think).