ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

Ouch Sunshine State...

[RL3AO]

And what does the 324-hr image of the GFS have to do with Gustav?

[Wx_Warrior]

If GFS is even close to being right....big ridge builds in and Gustavo won't touch a certain area.

[haml8]

Just another perspective, not preaching the gospel here:

[Stormcenter]

If GFS is even close to being right....big ridge builds in and Gustavo won't touch a certain area.

What area is that?

[AJC3]

The 0Z GFS has the upper system centered up at 40/62 (the big one at 500MB ) getting south enough...erroding the backside of the 588 high over Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000m.gif

This pops down the mid/upper high enough to release Gustav into the eastern Bahamas....then the ridge builds back to the east...trapping Gustav on a WNW track through the keys and into the SE Gulf.

I think...think this is a result of the GFS finally getting a handle on the initial intensity of Gustav (way too shallow before). I would initially write it off as a "bad run"...but if the other models start calling for an erosion of the EASTERN part of the high almost right away...then we could see some of the largest forecast errors in the last decade.

MW

The last few runs of the GFS have had some sort of odd-looking "Malachi crunch" near FL between Gustav and a system coming in from the general area of 95L (I think the models have been keying on spinning up something SE of the original 95L circulation). The 00Z doesn't bring the trailing system as far westward as it did at 18Z...but has Gustav uncomfortably close to the west coast of FL from Saturday night through the following Friday...which would be problematic from a rainfall perspective. Then by H240 it shows a hurricane poised to plow into...you guessed it...Hispanola.

[Wx_Warrior]

Central Tejas

[HouTXmetro]

Central Tejas

What about Central Texas?

[Stratosphere747]

If GFS is even close to being right....big ridge builds in and Gustavo won't touch a certain area.

Some of your cryptic type of messaging can come across as misleading. Just say what you mean..

[Wx_Warrior]

Days are long.....If GFS upper is correct, a strong High builds on Tuesday sending Gusy away from Cen/SE Tx.

[vaffie]

0Z UKMET just came out. Shifted north. Now it's pointing at Galveston. It does an interesting southwest move over Jamaica first.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_07.gif

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like all those southern models are shifting east ever so slight. Louisiana looks to be increasingly under the gun.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like all those southern models are shifting east ever so slight. Louisiana looks to be increasingly under the gun.

Which models are you referring too?

I'm looking at the GFS and GFDL with a lot of interest.

[Sean in New Orleans]

And what does the 324-hr image of the GFS have to do with Gustav?

I know...I was looking at that and thinking, what storm is this? Has it even left Africa yet?

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like all those southern models are shifting east ever so slight. Louisiana looks to be increasingly under the gun.

Which models are you referring too?

I'm looking at the GFS and GFDL with a lot of interest.

Isn't the latest GFS well east?

[PTrackerLA]

UKMET has shifted east, more in line with the 18z GFDL, will be interesting to see what the 00z shows:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[vaffie]

The model runs are interesting in that they all have the exact same slope starting in 30 hours. The difference in their final landfall position seems to only depend upon how far north they are when they cross the 80 degree line. 21 North results in New Orleans. 20 North (which is what the NHC is going with right now) results in central-western Louisiana. 18.5-19 North results in Galveston. I will be paying attention to where it crosses 80 degrees now.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_07.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

ooZ GFDL Shifts East and wipes out NO

[Wx_Warrior]

link? animation preferred

[HouTXmetro]

ooZ GFDL Shifts East and wipes out NO

I've been calling for a NOLA hit, I'm afraid I may be correct.