ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[soonertwister]

It disappointingly doesn't seem to be that accurate. I had high hopes for VIPIR when it first came out, but it seems hit and miss, and IIRC, for the times I do pay attention to it.....mostly miss.

With all due respect to Bob Breck, I haven't been able to trust in what he predicts ever since he blew his forecast with some of the canes. He was a mess with Katrina.
JMO of course.

Wasn't every model and forecast pretty much wrong with Fay? Once she hit the FL mainland it seems like all predictions went out the window for a while.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I haven't posted for a while even though TS Fay did a minor mayhem job on FL including a cousin whose house was flooded.

Gustav is starting to worry me a lot from the track forecasts. Much east or west means NOLA or Houston could be threatened, and neither is a scenario that is at all attractive.

I think Gustav would need to go well east or west of track not to significantly impact gulf oil rigs, so we may see an energy spike big time soon. I'm curious why the NHC thinks that Gustav won't strengthen above 110 Kt from 72 to 120 hours at this time of year. Shear?

The latest track has Gustav not significantly being impacted my land mass anywhere before the Gulf. If they turn it a little right, NOLA better not be stupid, and just go ahead and order a mandatory evac at 72 hours out. Better safe than sorry.

Also, the latest track has Gustav going right over Little Cayman. I feel for those folks right now.

There is shear in the GOM and it likely will still be there when Gustav is present, which provides for a storm that isn't able to reach its full potential.

[Steve]

>>shear in the Gulf...

Current shear is completely insignificant:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Run the loop - completely insignifcant:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... gpshrcolor

NGP Forecast - insiginificant:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... pstriso500

[bayoubebe]

It disappointingly doesn't seem to be that accurate. I had high hopes for VIPIR when it first came out, but it seems hit and miss, and IIRC, for the times I do pay attention to it.....mostly miss.

With all due respect to Bob Breck, I haven't been able to trust in what he predicts ever since he blew his forecast with some of the canes. He was a mess with Katrina.
JMO of course.

Wasn't every model and forecast pretty much wrong with Fay? Once she hit the FL mainland it seems like all predictions went out the window for a while.

Fay was a system that was all over the place. It was an unusual storm IMO. I'm not surprised there were forecasts that were off, seemed difficult to predict. JMO

If Gustav does what they are predicting it to do at this time, it reminds me of Katrina a little bit. Big, bad, and headed possibly to NOLA, a city that is below sea level.

[Stormcenter]

>>shear in the Gulf...

Current shear is completely insignificant:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Run the loop - completely insignifcant:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... gpshrcolor

NGP Forecast - insiginificant:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... pstriso500

The NHC believes it will be there when Gustav heads NW.

[amanda]

Posted from Bob Brecks blog, NOLA weather forecaster

""However, tonight's run of our VIPIR model (yes we pay Baron's Services to use it) indicates Gustav will make a northward turn on Friday across Cuba and head up the west coast of Florida. To me. our key day will be Friday. By then Gustav will either be heading where NHC puts it (still not in Gulf) and by then we'll need to start making decisions. IF VIPIR is correct, then the danger will be more to our east. The 3rd scenario could take Gustav farther to the south into the Yucatan.""

http://bobbreck.blogspot.com/

personnally not a big fan of viper but like some models every now and then it gets one right...

i don't know enough to be a fan of viper or not, but i think it predicted charley's path pretty well in 2004. also, i remember seeing a meteorologist showing the viper model of fay, which predicted a southern fl landfall quite similar to the one that materialized. it also predicted that fay would stall off the east fl coast and then turn back west.

It disappointingly doesn't seem to be that accurate. I had high hopes for VIPIR when it first came out, but it seems hit and miss, and IIRC, for the times I do pay attention to it.....mostly miss.

With all due respect to Bob Breck, I haven't been able to trust in what he predicts ever since he blew his forecast with some of the canes. He was a mess with Katrina.
JMO of course.

all of the models miss at times. they all have individual strengths and weaknesses. but i agree with your thinking that viper is likely wrong in this case. at least the tampa bay area better hope it is wrong anyway...

[amanda]

awww... that last post of mine elevated me to a "tropical low"

[RL3AO]

[bayoubebe]

[quote="amanda]

i don't know enough to be a fan of viper or not, but i think it predicted charley's path pretty well in 2004. also, i remember seeing a meteorologist showing the viper model of fay, which predicted a southern fl landfall quite similar to the one that materialized. it also predicted that fay would stall off the east fl coast and then turn back west.[/quote]

It disappointingly doesn't seem to be that accurate. I had high hopes for VIPIR when it first came out, but it seems hit and miss, and IIRC, for the times I do pay attention to it.....mostly miss.

With all due respect to Bob Breck, I haven't been able to trust in what he predicts ever since he blew his forecast with some of the canes. He was a mess with Katrina.
JMO of course.[/quote]


all of the models miss at times. they all have individual strengths and weaknesses. ..[/quote]

Yes, very true.
I feel for the mets. They are trying to predict nature, we all know how difficult that must be.

[CrazyC83]

It looks on radar like Gustav is going almost due west now hugging the coast?

[Steve]

Yeah, but they aren't exactly bullish on it.

AFTER THAT...POSSIBLE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY CREATE
INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.

[CrazyC83]

It seems the inner core is intact but the intensity dropped greatly over Haiti. The intact inner core being so small, I think Gustav could quickly re-intensify.

[RL3AO]

Still waiting for VDM, but center appears to be about 15 miles east of the 11pm NHC position and about 2 miles off the coast.

[Wx_Warrior]

Comments on the 0z GFDL? Apparently a NO landfall...NE hook

[Sean in New Orleans]

It seems the inner core is intact but the intensity dropped greatly over Haiti. The intact inner core being so small, I think Gustav could quickly re-intensify.

The mountains in Haiti have pretty high elevations. I've seen them completely kill storms before. I don't think that will happen with Gus, but, if Gus moves slowly, it will become weaker and weaker until it is away from those mountains. Tropical systems are low level and mountains are not their friends, at all.

[RL3AO]

Comments on the 0z GFDL? Apparently a NO landfall...NE hook

It will be at Panama City at 6z, Gavelston at 12z, and Lake Charles at 18z. Doesn't mean much unless it does it multiple runs.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Comments on the 0z GFDL? Apparently a NO landfall...NE hook

If it says that on Friday or Saturday, I'll make a comment.

[SoupBone]

HWRF 126 hours out....Cat 5 SE of GRand Isle, La.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif

[bostonseminole]

[Wx_Warrior]

This literally makes my stomach hurt knowing that anyone (including I) 'could' endure a strong system.