ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[gatorcane]

Whats up with the two left models, is that a shift?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

If that is accurate then the cone would probably have to shift more right I'm thinking....heck GFS and NOGAPS are in the Eastern GOM already not too far from a Fay-like projected track (which still went right of those models)

[Myersgirl]

Whats up with the two left models, is that a shift?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

If that is accurate then the cone would probably have to shift more right I'm thinking....heck GFS and NOGAPS are in the Eastern GOM already not too far from a Fay-like projected track (which still went right of those models)

Are those credible models?

[gatorcane]

The GFS and NOGAPS are good models but doesn't mean they are right in this case.

[KWT]

They are crediable models BUT they don't have a realisitic track in the next 24hrs given the rest of the guidence and would require this system not to bend back westward at all.

[vaffie]

0Z Canadian out--pointing at south Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[stormchazer]

It is also one run. We need to focus on trends over several runs.

It is obvious though, that Gustav;s forecast is not cut and dry. If the High is as strong as forecast, and persistant, I think a more western track is likely, rather then a more eastern. Plenty of time to watch.

My opinions only of course.

[DESTRUCTION5]

0Z Canadian out--pointing at south Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Why is this out at 930?

[dwg71]

Something caught my eye this morning. For the last couple days the tracks of all of the models have had the same slope as the BAMS/M/D. Because they are released two or three hours before the other models, it's interesting to look at them to see how models might shift in the next run. Well, the latest set, at 12Z, have changed their slope significantly--they've changed from about 305 degrees on average to 285 degrees. If the other models follow through, that could result in a major westward shift in the 12Z round early this afternoon. Anyway, just something to keep in mind.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_07.gif

Yes, that's because they are too far north in the early part. The BAM suite moved north ( and east) with the latest update... which is the trend. Central GOM needs to just be aware and monitor closely.

[stormchazer]

0Z Canadian out--pointing at south Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

It doesn't look like the steering features, based on that run, are strong enough to cause a vertically stacked and strong Gustav to make that far of western move. I certiainly not educated enough to make that call I guess, but just my opinion looking at the run. More questions then answers right now.

[vaffie]

0Z Canadian out--pointing at south Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Why is this out at 930?

It most likely came out earlier--around 3 am eastern time, but I just saw it updated on that website now.

[MortisFL]

:uarrow:

The GFS and NOGAPS are good models but doesn't mean they are right in this case.

Um, I believe its the NGFDL and the NOGAPS that are the models.

[DESTRUCTION5]

0Z Canadian out--pointing at south Texas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Why is this out at 930?

It most likely came out earlier--around 3 am eastern time, but I just saw it updated on that website now.

Ohh geez i was thinking 12z

[Storm Contractor]

OK I am new to this but as I understand different models focus on different layers of steering currents! So since Gustav has weakened the models that focus more on the mid and low level steering would be the guidance for now...right? Then as he strengthens again the other set of models would have a better grasp of steering...Right? So, since they study ALL of these 24 hours a day at the NHC, that would explain why the NHC has a better idea of the probable path than anyone else...yes?

[micktooth]

[deltadog03]

I don't think its soo much questioning the strength of the ridge..Yes, that will be important, but IMO the biggest thing is going to be the speed. As Mr. Stewart described last night, there will be an incoming trof. Lets face it folks this thing hit a total WALL the last day or so. Now, its starting to move...To be quite honest, I would think they might shift it a bit east at 11am.

[mutley]

I don't think its soo much questioning the strength of the ridge..Yes, that will be important, but IMO the biggest thing is going to be the speed. As Mr. Stewart described last night, there will be an incoming trof. Lets face it folks this thing hit a total WALL the last day or so. Now, its starting to move...To be quite honest, I would think they might shift it a bit east at 11am.

I think that's a good honest assessment, as I sit here watching Gustav crawling along.

[Janie2006]

I don't think its soo much questioning the strength of the ridge..Yes, that will be important, but IMO the biggest thing is going to be the speed. As Mr. Stewart described last night, there will be an incoming trof. Lets face it folks this thing hit a total WALL the last day or so. Now, its starting to move...To be quite honest, I would think they might shift it a bit east at 11am.

Yep, you nailed it. NHC forecast track currently aims Gustav for what appears to be Plaquemines parish, just below New Orleans.

[Wx_Warrior]

The first EURO several days back had NE Florida and I jumped on that bandwagon (my first scenario). No one is clear by any means but things are clearing up a bit now just 6 days out.

[gatorcane]

The key to the GFS forecast is that it is showing a trough swinging through the Great Lakes from a system forming in Western Canada. Here's what the GFS sees at this moment in time:



That trough swings through the northern CONUS over the next several days and then through the Great Lakes by days 3-4, weakening the ridging over the SE CONUS, allowing Gustav to slip into the EGOM:

[Johnny]

JB hasn't really changed his point of view from last night this morning.