stormy1970al wrote:I think we are all focusing a little too much on the models. Models can be wrong and the best thing to do is look at the cone and if you are in the cone start preparing. Don't panic but take the precautions and keep tuned to your local mets and the NHC. I think people depend on the models too much and don't realize that they will change off and on until the very end. If your area is in the cone then be prepared.
Glad you said this. I am on here reading around this morning and its like HOLY CRAP THE GFDL SHIFTED OR IMO THIS IS A _____ THREAT, OR THE NHC WILL MOVE THEIR CONE, etc...
The simple fact is that models shift with every update, this is a GOM threat (includes everyone on the gulf coast), and the NHC will do what they see fit with the forecast. The NHC isn't perfect, but they do a pretty good job of nailing down storms, at least in the near future. We have no idea what that ridge's intentions are.. it could move east, turning the storm. It could build west, sending Gustav toward mexico, or it could shift to the center, giving Gustav a choice to make... We dont know yet...