ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ROCK]

Not a forecast, but central Lousiana to the Florida Big Bend should be getting ready.


Maybe all the Northern Gulf Coasters will luck out, and Gustav will never recover from Haiti. It does look pretty chewed up right now...

Ed, go ahead and sound the all clear for Texas ......I know you want to....its eating you up.....

[mvtrucking]

the center is very poorly defined.

its not an open wave, but another bout of mountains will place Gustav in danger

Is it possible that Gustav could end here Derek?

[Derek Ortt]

very outside chance

it also could move over E Cuba

[shah8]

So you're essentially saying that the original NHC track has an increasing likelyhood of being correct, Dr. Ortt?

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks to me to be organizing, center is under that convection blob, and moving west/nw.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[KWT]

Will be very interesting to see if it does that Derek, most models don't do that apart from the Nogaps and the frankly strange GFS run at 0z but if it holds the WNW rather then due west movement then it could well do that who knows.

[bayoubebe]

I think Destructions was correct in his thinking when he said, "short term."

[ExBailbonds]

very outside chance

it also could move over E Cuba

What kinda odds would you give it to move over eastern cuba.

[KWT]

Saying that though that little SE tip may well end up causing some land disturbance even if the system were to stay offshore, we shall see.

Still liking the Lili comprasion right now.

[haml8]

Not a forecast, but central Lousiana to the Florida Big Bend should be getting ready.


Maybe all the Northern Gulf Coasters will luck out, and Gustav will never recover from Haiti. It does look pretty chewed up right now...

Ed, go ahead and sound the all clear for Texas ......I know you want to....its eating you up.....

Just a little levity here... I am just dying to use this to sound the all clear for Texas... not at anyone else's expense though.. Hoping this crashes and burns west of where it is now.. DIE DIE DIE!!

[dwg71]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Gus is struggling, i stop short of saying its dying off, but it has some real work to do. Last few frames show the cloud tops near the center warming. I would suspect a weaker storm 40-50Kts at 10PM CST.

[Senobia]

Fill me in on the 'all clear for Texas', would ya?

I was just coming to ask everyone's opinions on whether this storm would have any adverse effects (landfall or otherwise) on the TX/LA border.

[karenfromheaven]

I think we are all focusing a little too much on the models. Models can be wrong and the best thing to do is look at the cone and if you are in the cone start preparing. Don't panic but take the precautions and keep tuned to your local mets and the NHC. I think people depend on the models too much and don't realize that they will change off and on until the very end. If your area is in the cone then be prepared.

Uh...you do realize the cone is BASED on the models? There would be no cone if we did not have the constant twitches left and right of the models. The models are just as important as the NHC cone.

I second this thought. Note to visitors and guests: This is a Gustav model thread, not a general discussion thread. We are here primarily to discuss model runs and their implications, and I for one can't get enough of them! Please enjoy our discussions, and check out the general discussion thread if we seem too overly involved in all the projections.
Karen

[gatorcane]

very outside chance

it also could move over E Cuba

indeed, indeed, even more great news for those upstream of Gustav.....and more credence to the fact Major Gustav is NOT certain.

I hope some of the "its going to sink NOLA" talk calms down

[hsvwx]

Just because Gustav has a really tight core now doesn't mean he will in the central Gulf ( i.e. remember Wilma with her pinhole of an eye, and then her very large eye during landfall over Florida). Also, a weaker Gustav now could mean a longer period of time until he reaches his peak intensity, possibly leading to a stronger hurricane at landfall. Remember hurricanes typically do not maintain category 5 status for long periods of time. So we should hope he peaks much earlier before landfall. And this is not a forecast for a category 5 hurricane, just stating that IF it does become one, that it happens much earlier in Gustav's lifetime.

[Derek Ortt]

what I mean by E Cuba is the extreme SE tip, where Fay and Dennis made landfall. Not a track across the entire island

[haml8]

Fill me in on the 'all clear for Texas', would ya?

I was just coming to ask everyone's opinions on whether this storm would have any adverse effects (landfall or otherwise) on the TX/LA border.

NO all clear by ANY means...

[cycloneye]

I hope some of the "its going to sink NOLA" talk calms down

But that leads to people getting complacient and that is not good.

[shah8]

It's still on track to verify the 12z point on the 06z GFDL model. Slightly south of it, but perhaps a bit stronger than what the GFDL forcasted. I see little chance of a surprise north to significant interaction with Cuba's mountains. Unless we do get that interaction, strongish shear is going to be our primary hope of weakening.

Secondly, I do not think the delay means a turn north early. I suspect that it may cause Gustav to turn northwest later around Cuba because it feels the trough later.

[ColdFusion]

I think we are all focusing a little too much on the models. Models can be wrong and the best thing to do is look at the cone and if you are in the cone start preparing. Don't panic but take the precautions and keep tuned to your local mets and the NHC. I think people depend on the models too much and don't realize that they will change off and on until the very end. If your area is in the cone then be prepared.

Uh...you do realize the cone is BASED on the models? There would be no cone if we did not have the constant twitches left and right of the models. The models are just as important as the NHC cone.

I second this thought. Note to visitors and guests: This is a Gustav model thread, not a general discussion thread. We are here primarily to discuss model runs and their implications, and I for one can't get enough of them! Please enjoy our discussions, and check out the general discussion thread if we seem too overly involved in all the projections.
Karen

Oops. Someone is lost. hehe.