LaBreeze wrote:It's looking better for us here in Vermilion Parish (SouthWest/SouthCentral) LA. At least we'll probably be on the "good" side - the western side, that is if no further changes occur. How likely would the models shift? Does anyone think that they will shift back to west a great deal? Comments.
I'm running late today - I just read Jeff Lindner's email from this morning but he is not buying the easterward swing in the models:
Track:
Per mid and upper level steering…showing a strong high pressure ridge over FL which Gustav should get caught within the southern part of this high within the next several hours and begin a westward motion. CMISS data shows this high centered over S FL ridging SW into the NW Caribbean. While the available model guidance does not suggest a WSW or SW motion…based on the position of this high such a motion is possible. The GFS continues to be trash…a far eastern outlier with a track along the N Cuban coast…which is highly unlikely. The GFS along with the NOGAPS make up the eastern side of the guidance envelop with the GFDL and HWRF nearly on top of each other down the middle and the EURO and CMC off to the western side of the clustering. It should be noted that the GFDL continues wide swings between model runs while both the CMC and GFS have been more stable…but are far outliers to either side.
For the short term a track toward the W or even WSW seems most likely as Gustav rounds the south side of the ridge over S FL. By late Friday into Saturday Gustav will begin to reach the SW side of this ridge and begin to turn toward the WNW and NW. At this time a new high pressure ridge will be building across the SE US and this high will be the controlling factor in determining Gustav’s final landfall location. Do not think the GFS weakness it is showing over the SE US will be a factor and this is why the GFS continues its strong right runs…and of a much weaker system.
Through 72 hours the forecast is fairly straight forward with a track toward the NW Caribbean Sea….thereafter the uncertainty increases to the point that the entire error cone would be at risk. At this point, extrapolation of the centerline NHC track is highly discouraged given the spread in the respected global guidance and the noted errors of TC forecasting at days 4 and 5. Equal and similar preparations should be made within the entire error cone from TX to the FL panhandle.
A cane isn't a point and more than NOLA would be affected if the current path verified.
Looks really complicated.