ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

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ExBailbonds
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#1121 Postby ExBailbonds » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:48 am

GFS starting to roll. Here is a link to the loop just refresh every couple of minutes the frames will add as they become available.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#1122 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:52 am

GFS has it South of central Cuba in 48 hours -- no surprise.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1123 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:54 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:The first EURO several days back had NE Florida and I jumped on that bandwagon (my first scenario). No one is clear by any means but things are clearing up a bit now just 6 days out.




Huh? go talk to your bro..... nothing is clear...Clear as Mud......EURO has TX/LA GFDL is back to central LA....JB is calling Carla to Katrina.........give me a break Coop... :lol:
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1124 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:57 am

OT: You noticed I changed my avatar!!!!

100% nothing is set in stone...Just going by some of the major models are now recognizing a trough.
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#1125 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:58 am

GFS shows the break in the ridge at 66 hours -- does it fill back in? That is the question.

Image
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1126 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:59 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:OT: You noticed I changed my avatar!!!!

100% nothing is set in stone...Just going by some of the major models are now recognizing a trough.


and they never recognized it before?..... :lol:
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1127 Postby southerngale » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:59 am

Johnny wrote:JB hasn't really changed his point of view from last night this morning.


What is his point of view?
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1128 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:01 am

southerngale wrote:
Johnny wrote:JB hasn't really changed his point of view from last night this morning.


What is his point of view?


"Katrina to Carla"
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1129 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:02 am

southerngale wrote:
Johnny wrote:JB hasn't really changed his point of view from last night this morning.


What is his point of view?


I'm curious as well. Do we still have to play nice when it comes to JB?
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1130 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:02 am

ROCK wrote:
southerngale wrote:
Johnny wrote:JB hasn't really changed his point of view from last night this morning.


What is his point of view?


"Katrina to Carla"


You have to be joking me?
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1131 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:03 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:
southerngale wrote:
Johnny wrote:JB hasn't really changed his point of view from last night this morning.


What is his point of view?


I'm curious as well. Do we still have to play nice when it comes to JB?




no joke....and yes you have to play nice... :lol:
Last edited by ROCK on Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1132 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:03 am

12Z GFS enters the EGOM on day 3.5...
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#1133 Postby shah8 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:05 am

GFS shoots the yucatan straits and bends N to NE at 78hrs.

95l gets caught in a ridge.
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Re:

#1134 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:06 am

shah8 wrote:GFS shoots the yucatan straits and bends N to NE at 78hrs.

95l gets caught in a ridge.


Not sure NNE movement yet -- I still see NW to NNW.
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Re: Re:

#1135 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:08 am

gatorcane wrote:
shah8 wrote:GFS shoots the yucatan straits and bends N to NE at 78hrs.

95l gets caught in a ridge.


Not sure NNE movement yet -- I still see NW to NNW.


GFS has Gustav heading West at 90 hours to the northern tip of the Yucatan as a weak 1009 MB low.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1136 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:08 am

gatorcane wrote:
shah8 wrote:GFS shoots the yucatan straits and bends N to NE at 78hrs.

95l gets caught in a ridge.


Not sure NNE movement yet -- I still see NW to NNW.


NW or even WNW.....GFS really sucking on intensity...attm...
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1137 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:18 am

No shocker there :uarrow:
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#1138 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:21 am

GFS now lines up with others in LA
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Re: Tropical Storm Gustav-Model Runs

#1139 Postby USTropics » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:23 am

Looks to me like the GFS has jumped on board with the other models now. Similar path to the GFDL (discounting intensity of course) with maybe a bit more of a western position in the central GOM before turning north.
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Re:

#1140 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:26 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:GFS now lines up with others in LA


Yep...big shift from lasts night crappy run. Biggest shift is the ridge is stronger...and the west coast trof is slower and deeper. We will have to wait to see if it is a trend of if this is followed by another crappy run.
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