ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[ronjon]

12Z GFS has a huge building mid-level ridge over the eastern half of the US starting in 4 days. The vorticity max at 850 mb moves up north in the GOM and stalls and the aforementioned ridge builds over Gus. A classic set-up for a stall and erratic movement somewhere in the central or east-central GOM for Gus. If the GFS upper level environment pans out, there is the possibility of a very strong hurricane meadering in the GOM for days.

[cycloneye]

Biggest shift is the ridge is stronger...and the west coast trof is slower and deeper

AFM,if that pans out,what it means trackwise?

[haml8]

"Katrina to Carla"[/quote]

You have to be joking me?[/quote]

I saw JB on TV....

[Stormcenter]

GFS now lines up with others in LA

What do you mean all pointed toward LA.?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS now lines up with others in LA

What do you mean all pointed toward LA.?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Yep and stalls it there right off sure in a disasterous fashion....

[Wx_Warrior]

I don't know about GFS...I used to support it but it's been all over the place with Gustav...Ends up with just a bunch of rain next Sat heading inland near Tx/La border.

OT: EURO now GFS recognizes a nasty east of Florida....

[Air Force Met]

Biggest shift is the ridge is stronger...and the west coast trof is slower and deeper

AFM,if that pans out,what it means trackwise?

LA coast. If the trend continues...then points west need to take note.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep....bad, nasty feeling that my state will get Gustav....

[Sabanic]

Yep....bad, nasty feeling that my state will get Gustav....

I think everyone for now has that feeling

[Stormcenter]

Biggest shift is the ridge is stronger...and the west coast trof is slower and deeper

AFM,if that pans out,what it means trackwise?

LA coast. If the trend continues...then points west need to take note.

AFM what about the shear factor mentioned by the NHC? I'm not hearing much talk of Cat.5 in GOM today or am just not reading enough posts. Personally I still believe there are just too many unknowns to make a solid call right now either way in terms of track or strength.

[Stormcenter]

I don't know about GFS...I used to support it but it's been all over the place with Gustav...Ends up with just a bunch of rain next Sat heading inland near Tx/La border.

OT: EURO now GFS recognizes a nasty east of Florida....

Please post link or map.

[haml8]

Here is Accuweathers latest thoughts...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[Wx_Warrior]

Per your request

[southerngale]

Yep....bad, nasty feeling that my state will get Gustav....

Hey fellow Texan, I thought you were shoo'ing it away from our state. Earlier this morning, you had the feeling in the pit of your gut about Louisiana.

[gboudx]

Wouldn't that be 95L?

[JWLFD]

what are some of the most best models when forecasting hurricane

[haml8]

what are some of the most best models when forecasting hurricane

That is a good question. I would probably go ask it in the pro met forum. There you can ask Mets questions... More than likley they will answer it here though

[Ed Mahmoud]

If you're in Texas, the trend is your friend. The UK Met now aims at Central Louisiana, and the Canadian is closer to New Orleans.



The model trend could keep shifting even farther East, in my humble, unofficial and amateur opinion. Everyone on the Gulf should pay attention, especially between about New Iberia and A'p'cola, Florida.

[gboudx]

Ed, you sounding the Texas All Clear?

[Stormcenter]

If you're in Texas, the trend is your friend. The UK Met now aims at Central Louisiana, and the Canadian is closer to New Orleans.



The model trend could keep shifting even farther East, in my humble, unofficial and amateur opinion. Everyone on the Gulf should pay attention, especially between about New Iberia and A'p'cola, Florida.

Ed are these the new runs for the models you mentioned? I wonder what the new GFDL will say on it's next run.