ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL shifts a little more eastward.Landfall near Biloxi.

WHXX04 KWBC 271733
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.9 73.6 300./ 2.9
6 18.8 74.3 257./ 6.6
12 18.7 74.8 266./ 4.4
18 18.8 75.4 273./ 5.7
24 18.7 76.0 262./ 5.8
30 19.0 76.7 293./ 8.0
36 19.0 77.5 265./ 7.0
42 19.2 78.3 284./ 8.0
48 19.6 79.1 297./ 8.9
54 20.2 80.0 304./10.0
60 20.8 80.8 308./10.2
66 21.6 81.8 307./11.9
72 22.5 82.9 310./13.6
78 23.4 83.8 318./12.4
84 24.4 84.7 313./12.8
90 25.4 85.8 315./13.9
96 26.5 86.7 320./13.8
102 27.7 87.6 324./14.0
108 28.8 88.3 327./13.2
114 30.1 89.2 324./14.9
120 31.3 89.9 331./13.8
126 32.5 90.3 344./12.6

[gboudx]

12z GFDL shifts a little more eastward.Landfall near Biloxi.

Someone on another forum mentioned that Cantore is in Biloxi. Biloxi will be fine.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS concerns me with new ridge and Masters' explanation hurts my gut.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If you're in Texas, the trend is your friend. The UK Met now aims at Central Louisiana, and the Canadian is closer to New Orleans.



The model trend could keep shifting even farther East, in my humble, unofficial and amateur opinion. Everyone on the Gulf should pay attention, especially between about New Iberia and A'p'cola, Florida.

Ed are these the new runs for the models you mentioned? I wonder what the new GFDL will say on it's next run.

Code: Select all

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.08.2008



        TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV     ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N  73.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 27.08.2008  18.6N  73.5W   MODERATE

 00UTC 28.08.2008  18.9N  74.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 28.08.2008  18.3N  75.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 29.08.2008  17.8N  76.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 29.08.2008  19.0N  78.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 30.08.2008  19.3N  80.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 30.08.2008  20.7N  81.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 31.08.2008  21.9N  83.6W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 31.08.2008  23.8N  85.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 01.09.2008  25.3N  87.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 01.09.2008  26.7N  88.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 02.09.2008  27.9N  90.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 02.09.2008  28.6N  91.4W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE




Canadian 12Z


New GFDL was just posted, a smidge East of NOLA.

Since I am not a pro-met, I can't officially sound the all clear for Texas.

[Jason_B]

12z GFDL shifts a little more eastward.Landfall near Biloxi.

Someone on another forum mentioned that Cantore is in Biloxi. Biloxi will be fine.

Wasn't he in Biloxi during Katrina? Biloxi wasn't so fine then.

[Stormcenter]

12z GFDL shifts a little more eastward.Landfall near Biloxi.

WHXX04 KWBC 271733
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.9 73.6 300./ 2.9
6 18.8 74.3 257./ 6.6
12 18.7 74.8 266./ 4.4
18 18.8 75.4 273./ 5.7
24 18.7 76.0 262./ 5.8
30 19.0 76.7 293./ 8.0
36 19.0 77.5 265./ 7.0
42 19.2 78.3 284./ 8.0
48 19.6 79.1 297./ 8.9
54 20.2 80.0 304./10.0
60 20.8 80.8 308./10.2
66 21.6 81.8 307./11.9
72 22.5 82.9 310./13.6
78 23.4 83.8 318./12.4
84 24.4 84.7 313./12.8
90 25.4 85.8 315./13.9
96 26.5 86.7 320./13.8
102 27.7 87.6 324./14.0
108 28.8 88.3 327./13.2
114 30.1 89.2 324./14.9
120 31.3 89.9 331./13.8
126 32.5 90.3 344./12.6

I think we may finally may be seeing a slight trend with the models ever so slowly shifting
eastward. Even so I still think it's anyone's storm in the GOM.

[Stormcenter]

12z GFDL shifts a little more eastward.Landfall near Biloxi.

Someone on another forum mentioned that Cantore is in Biloxi. Biloxi will be fine.

Wasn't he in Biloxi during Katrina? Biloxi wasn't so fine then.

Yes is there. He's there waiting to see if he has to head west or east to cover the storm.

[gboudx]

12z GFDL shifts a little more eastward.Landfall near Biloxi.

Someone on another forum mentioned that Cantore is in Biloxi. Biloxi will be fine.

Wasn't he in Biloxi during Katrina? Biloxi wasn't so fine then.

I can't confirm nor deny the location of Cantore during Katrina since I had other things to worry about then. But it was a joke anyway.

[Brent]

12z GFDL shifts a little more eastward.Landfall near Biloxi.

Someone on another forum mentioned that Cantore is in Biloxi. Biloxi will be fine.

Wasn't he in Biloxi during Katrina? Biloxi wasn't so fine then.

Yep, and nearly drowned from the surge even though he was at 30 feet above sea level. I remember his live call-ins on TWC(one of the last storms TWC was actually decent for).

[Stormcenter]

Thanks to Ed and the other members for posting the model information!

[Scorpion]

[93superstorm]

GFDL, 926mb before cube:


936mb near NO

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF animation.This will open many eyes in the northern GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z HWRF animation.This will open many eyes in the northern GOM.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Every time you think it can't get worse the next run comes out...

[gboudx]

That looks like a run for the Tx/La border. 6z HWRF run was into Biloxi. A shift west.

[93superstorm]

Hwrf BOMBS it at 912MB:

[Sjones]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

[Scorpion]

Approaching NOLA

[ROCK]

That looks like a run for the Tx/La border. 6z HWRF run was into Biloxi. A shift west.

yep...go figure...keeps it weaker longer and westward longer than the GFDL....it aint over....

[Noles2006]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

It takes more than one run to "trend"... 3-4 and we'll talk trends.