ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

If the center is not where I had it... then I do not believe there is a center. I don't see anything CLOSED where the NHC has it

Open Wave?

they may issue a special advisory again if it's just an open wave....and if so, watch this busy thread dwindle down to nothing....

Then all eyes shift to 95L (not to mention the potential for redevelopment)...

[Derek Ortt]

If the center is not where I had it... then I do not believe there is a center. I don't see anything CLOSED where the NHC has it

Open Wave?

no... but I am thinking decoupled system with the low center north of the MLC. That would be the result of the 20+KT of northerly shear that SHIPS analyzed

[ConvergenceZone]

If the center is not where I had it... then I do not believe there is a center. I don't see anything CLOSED where the NHC has it

perhaps you are right Derek and Gustav has done all of the damage it's going to do and it's just an open wave or depression right now...and then we nothing to worry about...Crossing fingers for next report. Perhaps by this time tomorrow there won't be anything to look at then...

Yes, a hurricane is going to degenerate into an open wave because it skirted Hispaniola. This board is hilarious at times.

hey, even Derek said it MAY not have a center...doesn't that make it a wave then?

[Derek Ortt]

If the center is not where I had it... then I do not believe there is a center. I don't see anything CLOSED where the NHC has it

perhaps you are right Derek and Gustav has done all of the damage it's going to do and it's just an open wave or depression right now...and then we nothing to worry about...Crossing fingers for next report. Perhaps by this time tomorrow there won't be anything to look at then...

Yes, a hurricane is going to degenerate into an open wave because it skirted Hispaniola. This board is hilarious at times.

skirted Hispaniola? Now that was hilarious! It sat over 8,000 foot mountains for 18 hours!

[Sirius LeWindy]

Yeah...THAT's the reason. [/quote]

So you are picking on me? [/quote]

no, you post something suspect you are going to hear about it, this is a discussion board, sometimes it isnt all touchy feely[/quote]

Seriously? I was kidding dude. Lighten up. I did not post something "suspect" any more than, "it will RI once into the Gulf" some post. NHC mentioned increasing shear later in the forecast period. Only 2 models show major hurricanes. The image posted shows steering patterns even more westward than previous. Some models did/do not even show sig. development as per GFS and NAM.

I'm here to have a little fun and learn so back off.

[gatorcane]

Systems have had a notorious time forming rapidly after Hispaniola has delivered a serious beating to them. Two names come to mind:

Ernesto and Fay

It took several days for them to even recover to strong TS status.....despite good upper-level support and warm SSTs.

[Frank2]

The NHC will keep it a storm for now, but, it all depends on the recon and what it looks like on satellite - they still are holding to reintensification, so, they'll likely not back away from that at this early stage, but, we'll see what happens, since it is very disorganized at this time, that's for certain...

[Derek Ortt]

Looks like the center was found at my position, near 19.0N and 74.0W

This is decoupled and in some trouble

[fasterdisaster]

Surely I'm not the only one who sees the constant convective bursts and realizes this is EASILY steadily organizing???

[Derek Ortt]

Surely I'm not the only one who sees the constant convective bursts and realizes this is EASILY steadily organizing???

and the recon pressure is 4mb higher than this morning and FL winds in the NE quad only support a TD now

[gatorcane]

Looks like the center was found at my position, near 19.0N and 74.0W

This is decoupled and in some trouble

Good news again Derek for upstream implications.

I know some people are in disbelief.

Remember it takes exceptional circumstances to get a major and a major to make it into the GOM for that matter.....

[CrazyC83]

Surely I'm not the only one who sees the constant convective bursts and realizes this is EASILY steadily organizing???

It's trying to, it just needs to move away from Hispaniola and into the open waters.

[Frank2]

I always think of Hurricane David (1979) - it was a strong Cat 4 when it made a fairly hard right and crossed into Hispanola from the Caribbean, but, despite the forecasts that called for reintensification, it only managed a modest Cat 1 when it brushed Brevard County...

[shawn67]

From a hurricane to now people wanting to talk about it being an open wave...there really needs to be a tin foil hat smiley around here somedays...you guys really need a VDM before you guys go at each others throats!!

[Derek Ortt]

Surely I'm not the only one who sees the constant convective bursts and realizes this is EASILY steadily organizing???

It's trying to, it just needs to move away from Hispaniola and into the open waters.

its the 20KT of shear doing this in now. I dont see the shear relaxing for at least 24 more hours until it moves under the upper high

[ColdFusion]

So are we SERIOUSLY entertaining the idea that this is a storm on the decline? I thought it was a big joke.

We all expected it to emerge weaker, and the official forecast is a slow re-organization reaching hurricane strength in the next 24-48 hours.

What 'new' factors have come into play to suggest otherwise? I might have missed the post (or you might be on my 'ignore' list, lol).

[Stormcenter]

Help me out here folks. It is just me (very possible ) or does Gustav
continue to look like a very disorganized storm. Something is just not right
with it. It also looks like it's not even moving at 5mph.

Forecast is for a slow re-organization. Not in a great spot right now, but forecasted to be in a day or so. Don't expect to see any big improvement in structure today.

Yeah but I don't think they meant this slow.

[mutley]

Surely I'm not the only one who sees the constant convective bursts and realizes this is EASILY steadily organizing???

It's trying to, it just needs to move away from Hispaniola and into the open waters.

I agree. Once it gets clear of that peninsula, it's off to the races again until Cuba.

[oyster_reef]

Surely I'm not the only one who sees the constant convective bursts and realizes this is EASILY steadily organizing???

It's trying to, it just needs to move away from Hispaniola and into the open waters.

its the 20KT of shear doing this in now. I dont see the shear relaxing for at least 24 more hours until it moves under the upper high

80% game over?
50% game over?

[Frank2]

Well, you can't blame everyone for now wanting to see a repeat of 2005 - that's only being hopeful, and, as the movie said, "Hope is a good thing"...