ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Surely I'm not the only one who sees the constant convective bursts and realizes this is EASILY steadily organizing???

It's trying to, it just needs to move away from Hispaniola and into the open waters.

its the 20KT of shear doing this in now. I dont see the shear relaxing for at least 24 more hours until it moves under the upper high

Derek was this expected?

[gatorcane]

it looks to me that 95L may be getting bigger than Gustav....looking at the wide atlantic view. If it can get going more quickly and deepen it would also likely induce some more shear over Gustav...BUT I don't forecast that happening just yet...

[caneman]

I'm shocked that people are shocked by this. No wonder GFS was not picking up on much with this system. Some of the others weren't in the beginning either but GFDL throws a a bomb out there and everyone jumps on board. Remember folks try to look at all of the models and find a happy medium on track and intensity. You will be closer to right and more sane when you do that.

[Decomdoug]

Surely I'm not the only one who sees the constant convective bursts and realizes this is EASILY steadily organizing???

It's trying to, it just needs to move away from Hispaniola and into the open waters.

its the 20KT of shear doing this in now. I dont see the shear relaxing for at least 24 more hours until it moves under the upper high

Question Derek, Will the decoupling and later reorginization affect the projected path?

[Derek Ortt]

80% game over?
50% game over?

I'm thinking it maintains weak TS/TD status for 24, then intensifies steadily afterward

[oyster_reef]

I'm shocked that people are shocked by this. No wonder GFS was picking up on much with this system. Some of the others weren't in the beginning either but GFDL throws a a bomb out there and everyone jumps on board. Remember folks try to look at all of the models and find happy medium on track and intensity. You will be closer to right and more sane when you do that.

NHC forcasted cat 3 before Cuba and Cat 3 in GOM...

[ColdFusion]

80% game over?
50% game over?

I'm thinking it maintains weak TS/TD status for 24, then intensifies steadily afterward

Ok, so pretty much what the NHC is forecasting.

[Derek Ortt]

a weaker system likely will go more north in the short term. This likely now will bring it over SE Cuba

it is also making me root for 95L to develop, I am quite sick and tired of running high resolution models over high mountains! It is blowing up the tracking algorithm. I'll bail out immediately and switch to 95L if it develops soon

[caneman]

I'm shocked that people are shocked by this. No wonder GFS was picking up on much with this system. Some of the others weren't in the beginning either but GFDL throws a a bomb out there and everyone jumps on board. Remember folks try to look at all of the models and find happy medium on track and intensity. You will be closer to right and more sane when you do that.

NHC forcasted cat 3 before Cuba and Cat 3 in GOM...

NHC bases that on model input. I've doubted this system from the beginning. I mean come on we saw a nearly identical track with Fay and she nver live up to the intesity hype. Gustav still can but I believe it has another 24 hours and that is assuming he doesn't go over Cuba.

[Sanibel]

Not sure if this Cuban radar is up to date:


http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/261800_270700.gif

[Frank2]

That would make it more toasty, for sure, since it continue in a very disorganized state...

Perhaps it's not just the ill-defined center but the system as a whole that will move over Cuba, so, that's something to consider...

[tolakram]

Still moving west.



http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[oyster_reef]

I'm shocked that people are shocked by this. No wonder GFS was picking up on much with this system. Some of the others weren't in the beginning either but GFDL throws a a bomb out there and everyone jumps on board. Remember folks try to look at all of the models and find happy medium on track and intensity. You will be closer to right and more sane when you do that.

NHC forcasted cat 3 before Cuba and Cat 3 in GOM...

NHC bases that on model input. I've doubted this system from the beginning. I mean come on we saw a nearly identical track with Fay and she nver live up to the intesity hype. Gustav still can but I believe it has another 24 hours and that is assuming he doesn't go over Cuba.

you're the expert... NHC should consult with you before posting forcasts...

[alienstorm]

Remember Wilma went to sleep as a tropical storm woke up to a CAT 5..

[Andy_L]

I'm shocked that people are shocked by this. No wonder GFS was picking up on much with this system. Some of the others weren't in the beginning either but GFDL throws a a bomb out there and everyone jumps on board. Remember folks try to look at all of the models and find happy medium on track and intensity. You will be closer to right and more sane when you do that.

NHC forcasted cat 3 before Cuba and Cat 3 in GOM...

NHC bases that on model input. I've doubted this system from the beginning. I mean come on we saw a nearly identical track with Fay and she nver live up to the intesity hype. Gustav still can but I believe it has another 24 hours and that is assuming he doesn't go over Cuba.[/quote]

you're the expert... NHC should consult with you before posting forcasts...[/quote]


LOL Reef...you beat me to that comment

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I see a vigorous low level circulation and storms firing on top but being impacted by the mountains. Once it clear Haiti I think we'll see it gain strength quickly.

[deltadog03]

Seriously people....Are we really starting the its dead jim chants??? Like Really??? Come on, what do yall expect, it SAT over mountains..

[Just Joshing You]

Remember Wilma went to sleep as a tropical storm woke up to a CAT 5..

Not quite like that, but Wilma is proof a storm can intensify faster than you can bet in the right conditions. Felix is another good one.

[Stormcenter]

Remember Wilma went to sleep as a tropical storm woke up to a CAT 5..

Are you saying thsi will be another Wilma?

[mutley]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I see a vigorous low level circulation and storms firing on top but being impacted by the mountains. Once it clear Haiti I think we'll see it gain strength quickly.

That is a sensible prediction.