ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

Most of those models have 95L moving up towards Bermuda. The other models which have 95L turning west are the models which are used for the deep tropics,I hope I'm correct when saying that.Those models are also for a weaker system.Since this system will be north of 20n should those outlier models be disscounted which bend back west?

[gatorcane]

this may become an interesting situation I have to admit.

Bear watch still on 95L. Recall I activated it last weekend

[gatorcane]

I think this is 95L that GFS has hitting Southern Florida? I'm not sure where it gets this system from

Note: model run is far out and not likely to verify.

[mitchell]

Thats 324 hours out...i think its a different system completely. Look at 120 hour and you can see the system that approaches fla by 324.

[capepoint]

NWS (MHX Office) marine forcast says models hinting at development off east coast near Bahamas next week, although they do not say which model(s). Maybe this Fla system is what they are seeing.

ooops should have read new one before I posted....

updated marine forcast says GFS and ECMWF. Monday timeframe.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL tracks west of Bermuda.

WHXX04 KWBC 271730
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.4 57.6 215./ 2.9
6 20.1 57.9 335./ 8.1
12 20.2 58.2 289./ 2.6
18 20.8 58.4 333./ 5.8
24 21.4 59.0 322./ 8.0
30 22.4 59.4 334./10.7
36 23.5 59.8 339./11.8
42 24.4 60.8 312./12.7
48 25.3 61.9 311./13.2
54 26.4 62.7 326./13.3
60 27.4 63.7 314./13.2
66 28.2 64.4 316./ 9.9
72 29.0 65.0 325./10.1
78 29.8 65.6 324./ 9.5
84 30.5 65.7 347./ 7.2
90 31.4 66.2 330./ 9.3
96 32.1 66.2 358./ 7.6
102 32.7 66.4 345./ 6.1
108 33.3 66.2 19./ 6.3
114 34.2 65.9 17./ 8.7
120 34.4 65.6 59./ 3.1
126 34.6 65.0 72./ 5.6

[Steve H.]

Some interest in the development of 95L east of the bahamas:

TS GUSTAV FORECAST TO BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE N CENTRAL
GLFMEX. TRACK EXTRAPOLATION A REASONABLE FIT TO THE 00Z ECMWF WITH
POSSIBLE LANDFALL FROM THE NE TX TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE COASTAL
REGION. SEE TPC ADVISORIES/WARNINGS/DISCUSSIONS.

SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF/CMC/NAM/NOGAPS CONT TO FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT OF 95L. A CONSENSUS USED WITH ITS DEPICTION EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. SEE TPC OUTLOOKS. EWD VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A
CAPE VERDE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE ERN ATLC AND TRACKING WWD
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE OF 12Z GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR HANDLING THE NOAM
WESTERLIES TO ECMWF ENS MEANS USED EARLIER.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 271833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC WED AUG 27 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080827 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080827 1800 080828 0600 080828 1800 080829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 57.4W 20.2N 58.6W 21.5N 60.0W 22.7N 61.4W
BAMD 19.4N 57.4W 19.8N 58.2W 20.5N 59.1W 21.5N 60.5W
BAMM 19.4N 57.4W 19.8N 58.5W 20.5N 59.6W 21.3N 61.1W
LBAR 19.4N 57.4W 19.5N 57.9W 20.1N 58.8W 21.2N 60.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080829 1800 080830 1800 080831 1800 080901 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.0N 63.0W 25.9N 66.0W 27.3N 69.0W 27.2N 71.0W
BAMD 22.7N 62.0W 24.8N 65.4W 26.0N 67.9W 25.7N 68.7W
BAMM 22.3N 62.8W 23.7N 65.8W 24.3N 68.9W 24.2N 71.1W
LBAR 22.4N 62.1W 24.8N 66.4W 26.6N 70.8W 26.7N 73.2W
SHIP 50KTS 60KTS 68KTS 74KTS
DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 68KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.4N LONCUR = 57.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 57.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 19.5N LONM24 = 56.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

4 models bend it towards the Bahamas now....4 recurve it towards Bermuda..

Bit split at this point.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[otowntiger]

4 models bend it towards the Bahamas now....4 recurve it towards Bermuda..

Bit split at this point.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

It looks to me that 4 models are bending it sharply out to sea or over Bermuda while only 2 take it toward the Bahamas. Am I missing something? I know that the TPC disscussion said that a possibility of the system bending back after heading NE toward the sw toward the Bahamas/EC of FL after losing its steering currents. Is that what you are referring to?

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

EUro Makes 95L Kill SFL this run...And its not to far out..

[Trader Ron]

The GFDL and HWRF have it going Poleward. The LBAR is worthless.

[bahamaswx]

4 models bend it towards the Bahamas now....4 recurve it towards Bermuda..

Bit split at this point.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Only the garbage models are sending it west. I'd put my stoke in the models calling for a recurve any day.

[Blown Away]

EUro Makes 95L Kill SFL this run...And its not to far out..

If that is 95L impacting SFL, it's going to be here in 9 days?? No way I buy that run even a
little it won't take 9 days for 95L to go from 19N/57W to SFL.

[DESTRUCTION5]

EUro Makes 95L Kill SFL this run...And its not to far out..

If that is 95L impacting SFL, it's going to be here in 9 days?? No way I buy that run even a
little it won't take 9 days for 95L to go from 19N/57W to SFL.

Why not? Its not exactly moving along at 20...Took 3 days for Gus to come off of Hati..LOL

[gatorcane]

The Euro brings 95L as a powerful hurricane WNW then NW SE of Bermuda....stalls it some then pushes it SSW several hundred miles down into the SE Bahamas then WNW into South Florida.

I don't buy that run one bit.

[txwatcher91]

4 models bend it towards the Bahamas now....4 recurve it towards Bermuda..

Bit split at this point.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Only the garbage models are sending it west. I'd put my stoke in the models calling for a recurve any day.

I wouldn't call the Euro a garbage model. It has handled most storms pretty well with track so far this year. Why is it not believable? The ridge steering Gustav WNW will also be steering 95L.

[Bocadude85]

The Euro has been showing this system landfalling in S Florida for awhile now... kind of consistent

[Vortex]

Its not important right now where the models have the final destination. Whats important here is the consistency of the euro in trending w/wsw for multiple runs. In addition, some of the bams are taking notice with a similar bend west..We should watch for changes in the trends that have either been consistently west(euro) and Gfdl which has been consistently poleward. The facts are we have a developing system as we speak and most guidance indicates this to eventually become a hurricane. The trend is your friend...