ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Looks to me like a WSW to W movement:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

What lat/long are you seeing the circulation?

[SouthFLTropics]

I do believe that this is something that is going to have to be watched carefully. Especially once that ULL gets out of the picture. This could ramp up real quick given the right conditions. The convection is already there.

SFT

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like a WSW to W movement:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

What lat/long are you seeing the circulation?

I see the circulation right under that new blob of convection that is firing --

this one is on an increasing organization trend -- would not be surprised if we see code red in the next 48-72 hours.

[msbee]

Looks to me like a WSW to W movement:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Wunderground has it moving southwest

[Vortex]

This certainly has the makings of a significant cyclone. It should be interesting to see if the euro continues its recent trends of development and placing the cyclone over the bahamas in about a week.

[KWT]

Whats interesting to me is that the global models are hinting at this possibly getting caught under an expanding ridge, it needs to be watched very closely as it may somewhat slip under the radar as Gustav takes the main attention.

[fci]

Jeff Masters brings up the divergence in models in his 10:48 AM wrote up from Weather Underground:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

"Disturbance 95L east-northeast of Puerto Rico
A tropical disturbance (95L) near 20N 58W, a few hundred miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico, has a closed surface circulation, as seen on this morning's QuikSCAT pass (Figure 3). This system could develop and be a problem for Bermuda by Monday, and the U.S. East Coast late next week. Visible satellite loops show that wind shear continues to play havoc with this system--strong upper-level winds from an upper level low pressure system to the west are pushing 95L's heavy thunderstorms to the east side of the center of circulation. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 95L today, but is forecast to decrease below 5 knots on Thursday and remain below 15 knots for most of the remainder of the week. Dry air should not be a problem for 95L. NHC is giving 95L a medium (20%-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday. Most of the models develop 95L, foreseeing a northwest track and a threat to Bermuda 4-7 days from now. The latest (2 am EDT) GFDL model run develops 95L into a strong Category 1 hurricane that passes very close to Bermuda on Monday. The HWRF model is more aggressive, predicting a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday, that then weakens to a Category 1 hurricane by the time it nears Bermuda on Monday. In the longer range, it appears that 95L will stall in the Bermuda area and move slowly, as steering currents collapse early next week. By the end of next week, the storm may scoot northward towards Canada (as predicted by the GFS model), or head west-southwestward into the Bahamas and Florida (as predicted by the ECMWF model). It is too early to guess which of these solutions is more likely."

Of course, the skeptic in me does not see this headed towards Bermuda and then coming back to FL; however; it can't be ruled out if Pro Mets are mentioning it.

[gatorcane]

convection still increasing and a circulation is clearly visible:

[Blown Away]

If 95L's circulation is near 19.7N/57.5W it is moving out of the shear.

[gatorcane]

More organized as I observed and commented earlier today:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271744
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO
CUBA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

[tgenius]

So this storm does seem like it may pose a FL/EC threat down the line now

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea it looks like its got something on its mind..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

The weather underground has 95L moving W and is WSW of the last position. The NHC has 95L moving NW??
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

[cpdaman]

i'm having a tuff time believing in a NW then SW track to FL , perhaps further N? (should this even develop) these pesky ULL's can be difficult to forecast along w/ their shear but obviously potential and needs to be watched closely as some models bend this west well south of bermuda it appears (which would be more concerning for FL esp IMO should that verify)

[gatorcane]

I'm seeing it shooting out some kind of outflow boundary:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[msbee]

what if any effect do any of you think it will it have on the Northeast Caribbean?

[Driftin]

newbee here from PR!

Could anyone confirm that SW movement? if so would this be of concern to us here in the northen islands? Thanks.

[cycloneye]

newbee here from PR!

Could anyone confirm that SW movement? if so would this be of concern to us here in the northen islands? Thanks.

First welcome to storm2k.I am also in PR.About the movement,it appears that it has stopped a brief SW track that had earlier today and now is going west to westnorthwest.

[cpdaman]

newbee here from PR!

Could anyone confirm that SW movement? if so would this be of concern to us here in the northen islands? Thanks.

First welcome to storm2k.I am also in PR.About the movement,it appears that it has stopped a brief SW track that had earlier today and now is going west to westnorthwest.

as the ull slowly drops south , 95 should actually start moving more north right, then maybe west or nw depending on the trough/high steering flow set up at that time