ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Blown Away]

The Euro brings 95L as a powerful hurricane WNW then NW SE of Bermuda....stalls it some then pushes it SSW several hundred miles down into the SE Bahamas then WNW into South Florida.

I don't buy that run one bit.

I give that Euro run <1% chance of happening.

[SouthFLTropics]

The Euro brings 95L as a powerful hurricane WNW then NW SE of Bermuda....stalls it some then pushes it SSW several hundred miles down into the SE Bahamas then WNW into South Florida.

I don't buy that run one bit.

I give that Euro run <1% chance of happening.

I hope you are right but I think I'll save that for the feast later just in case!

SFT

[txwatcher91]

Its not important right now where the models have the final destination. Whats important here is the consistency of the euro in trending w/wsw for multiple runs. In addition, some of the bams are taking notice with a similar bend west..We should watch for changes in the trends that have either been consistently west(euro) and Gfdl which has been consistently poleward. The facts are we have a developing system as we speak and most guidance indicates this to eventually become a hurricane. The trend is your friend...

Well said and agree 100%. Euro has been consistent and the bamm models are trending west, also most models don't handle a system well until it actually develops and we have seen how most models have had a more northerly bias for undeveloped systems this year. With a ridge forecast to build and steer Gustav W-WNW the next few days I see no reason 95L won't go west either. The Euro solution is actually very believable.

[terrapintransit]

[Blown Away]

The Euro brings 95L as a powerful hurricane WNW then NW SE of Bermuda....stalls it some then pushes it SSW several hundred miles down into the SE Bahamas then WNW into South Florida.

I don't buy that run one bit.

I give that Euro run <1% chance of happening.

I hope you are right but I think I'll save that for the feast later just in case!

SFT

I'll get my knife and fork if 95L goes up to Bermuda then back to SFL.

[gatorcane]

the westward trend of the Euro and BAMMS is something I'm definitely keeping an eye on I can assure you.

[Steve H.]

Disco from MLB FL. Yesterday they threw out the EC - today they're toying with it, but not getting excited. Though I believe that there is a circulation taking shape out there:

SUN-WED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) ON THE ONE HAND...THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF T.S GUSTAV MAKES THE XTD RANGE UNCERTAIN TO BEGIN WITH - JUST HOW
FAR WWD OR EWD OVER THE GOMEX THE CYCLONE EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
HAVE SIGNIF IMPLICATION FOR RAIN CHCS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PSBLY MAKING
THE FCST HARDER STILL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECM NOW SHOW SOME SORT OF
LOW E/NE OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
EMANATING FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WX N-NE OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
ECM HAS SHOWN THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
TWD ITS SOLN...WHILE STILL KEEPING ANY LOW PRES AREA WEAKER/FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WHILE IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS TO GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FCST OVER
ANY MODEL GUIDANCE.

GUSTAV NOTWITHSTANDING...OVER DAYS 5-8 THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN
OVER THE WRN ATLC IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS A CUTOFF LOW IS FCST TO
FORM UP NEAR 40-45N/60-65W...DIP SOUTHWARD FOR A TIME...AND THEN
LIFT OUT. IN ADDITION...THERE ISN`T A LOW PRES CENTER TO REALLY
SPEAK OF YET. SO WHAT WE`RE LEFT WITH TO OUR WEST IS A POTENTIAL
MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GOMEX...WHILE TO THE EAST...A LOW THAT MAY
OR MAY NOT FORM...AND EVEN IF IT FORMS...MAY OR MAY NOT GET ANYWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. SO IT REMAINS BEST TO GO WITH PREV FCST WHICH SHOWS
FRESHENING EASTERLIES GRADUALLY DEVELOPING...EVENTUALLY INTO MORE OF
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHRA REGIME ALONG THE EAST COAST..WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION DURG THE LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME. IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING LATE AUG/SERLY SEP.

[SouthFLTropics]

IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING LATE AUG/SERLY SEP.

I think that may end up being a very large understatement!!!

SFT

[jlauderdal]

Disco from MLB FL. Yesterday they threw out the EC - today they're toying with it, but not getting excited. Though I believe that there is a circulation taking shape out there:

SUN-WED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) ON THE ONE HAND...THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF T.S GUSTAV MAKES THE XTD RANGE UNCERTAIN TO BEGIN WITH - JUST HOW
FAR WWD OR EWD OVER THE GOMEX THE CYCLONE EVENTUALLY TRACKS WILL
HAVE SIGNIF IMPLICATION FOR RAIN CHCS EARLY NEXT WEEK. PSBLY MAKING
THE FCST HARDER STILL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECM NOW SHOW SOME SORT OF
LOW E/NE OF THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
EMANATING FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WX N-NE OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
ECM HAS SHOWN THIS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...WHILE THE GFS HAS TRENDED
TWD ITS SOLN...WHILE STILL KEEPING ANY LOW PRES AREA WEAKER/FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WHILE IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS TO GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FCST OVER
ANY MODEL GUIDANCE.

GUSTAV NOTWITHSTANDING...OVER DAYS 5-8 THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN
OVER THE WRN ATLC IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS A CUTOFF LOW IS FCST TO
FORM UP NEAR 40-45N/60-65W...DIP SOUTHWARD FOR A TIME...AND THEN
LIFT OUT. IN ADDITION...THERE ISN`T A LOW PRES CENTER TO REALLY
SPEAK OF YET. SO WHAT WE`RE LEFT WITH TO OUR WEST IS A POTENTIAL
MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GOMEX...WHILE TO THE EAST...A LOW THAT MAY
OR MAY NOT FORM...AND EVEN IF IT FORMS...MAY OR MAY NOT GET ANYWHERE
NEAR THE AREA. SO IT REMAINS BEST TO GO WITH PREV FCST WHICH SHOWS
FRESHENING EASTERLIES GRADUALLY DEVELOPING...EVENTUALLY INTO MORE OF
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHRA REGIME ALONG THE EAST COAST..WITH
DIURNAL CONVECTION DURG THE LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON TIME
FRAME. IT`S SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING LATE AUG/SERLY SEP.

bams and gyro want to bring it west, the others want to peel it to the NNE, 2 camps, one final solution, time will tell

[fci]

The Euro brings 95L as a powerful hurricane WNW then NW SE of Bermuda....stalls it some then pushes it SSW several hundred miles down into the SE Bahamas then WNW into South Florida.

I don't buy that run one bit.

I give that Euro run <1% chance of happening.

I'll get my knife and fork if 95L goes up to Bermuda then back to SFL.

"Mr. Skeptic" here does not buy a run up to Bermuda and back to SE FL one bit.
However, a NW track and bend to the W is not out of the question and does concern me a bit.
As usual, not a LOT but a bit.

The most likely scenario still remains the climatological norm, NW, N and then to the NE.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well the BAMMS and some more models made a huge west shift-
95L looks to be pointing almost at the Bahamas...things can change I know-
but a strong ridge keeping Gustav away from the FL peninsula might steer
95L on a west path...possibly to the SE Coast....

[SouthFLTropics]

Well the BAMMS and some more models made a huge west shift-
95L looks to be pointing almost at the Bahamas...things can change I know-
but a strong ridge keeping Gustav away from the FL peninsula might steer
95L on a west path...possibly to the SE Coast....

I'll be interested to see if the GFDL and some more of the globals jump on board with the west shift. If they do then I think it will be game time here on the SE CONUS. Where the models are initialized from is going to be key to their accuracy. If the center of the disturbance has indeed relocated to the SE like I have read then I would expect a change coming in some of the future model runs.

SFT

[gatorcane]

Well the models remain split. If there was a cone I'd venture to say NHC splits them much like they did with Gustav for the first cone --- showing a general NW path.

[tallywx]

Looks almost like the Hurricane Andrew bifurcation, where it could go either way.

[Recurve]

Shhhhhh! It'll hear.

I'm definitely back watching this now. Gus is going so slow and we're finally out of the cone.

Anything north of the Antilles I don't like, especially when it's early for a strong front coming far south.

[bahamaswx]

Almost all the globals call for a recurve. That said, they're all pretty well agreed on developing the next 2 systems behind it!

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: Shhhhhh! It'll hear.

I'm definitely back watching this now. Gus is going so slow and we're finally out of the cone.

Anything north of the Antilles I don't like, especially when it's early for a strong front coming far south.

welcome, this where the florida residents will be hanging the next few days, gus is way to slow and boring for now

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL tracks west of Bermuda.

WHXX04 KWBC 272335
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.2 57.5 270./ 1.9
6 20.0 57.5 359./ 7.3
12 20.6 57.3 18./ 6.2
18 21.4 58.1 315./11.3
24 22.2 58.7 323./ 9.8
30 23.0 59.5 314./10.9
36 23.6 60.2 315./ 8.3
42 24.5 61.0 318./11.8
48 25.8 62.2 317./17.0
54 26.7 63.2 310./12.7
60 27.5 64.3 308./13.1
66 28.2 65.5 299./12.1
72 28.9 66.2 316./ 9.3
78 29.7 66.7 327./ 9.1
84 30.4 67.2 325./ 7.9
90 31.1 67.4 341./ 7.9
96 31.8 67.6 350./ 7.2
102 32.5 67.5 8./ 7.2
108 33.2 67.4 8./ 6.3
114 33.5 67.3 8./ 3.0
120 33.2 67.4 203./ 3.0
126 32.9 67.4 180./ 3.4

[storm4u]

I even got something to watch up here now oh man

[Steve H.]

Huh, well now, that is 203 and 180 degrees I see at 120 and 126 hours, respectively. Yee doggeee. (watching Jed on TV).