ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[teal61]

Nothing official, but all the models are safely East of Texas, just as I expected. Unofficially, trend East could continue, near NOLA to A'p'cola, Florida.

Safely east..well I hope so, but way way too early to bet that i am afraid. Hope you are right though.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting that NHC track does not have a landfall with 4pm track.

Did they with their earlier tracks?

[Sabanic]

Interesting that NHC track does not have a landfall with 4pm track.

Did they with their earlier tracks?

NO

[dwg71]

Interesting that NHC track does not have a landfall with 4pm track.

Did they with their earlier tracks?

No, but they did not extend the previous track at all. I think the uncertainy led them to back off from putting it right on NOLA 5 days out. Full chaos would have broken out. Next run, not so lucky if no dramatic shifts in models.

[rtd2]

and moving at 3miles per hour the track may not have a L/F AT 10PMCDT update either

[MGC]

The 12Z GFDL run put a shiver up my spine. Landfall in Hancock County Mississippi. Same spot Camille and Katrina made landfall. People are starting to get nervous around here......MGC

[Stormcenter]

The 12Z GFDL run put a shiver up my spine. Landfall in Hancock County Mississippi. Same spot Camille and Katrina made landfall. People are starting to get nervous around here......MGC

I believe it will shift further eastward.

[rtd2]

The 12Z GFDL run put a shiver up my spine. Landfall in Hancock County Mississippi. Same spot Camille and Katrina made landfall. People are starting to get nervous around here......MGC

Yeah they cut us loose early at work today(15:00) to gas up,ect (normal work day tommorow)and heard memorial, garden park and hancock medical are no longer admitting patients ONLY Emergency... as a lifelong verteran of the coast and canes its hard to stomach some of the hype you get off a 5 DAY FORECAST TRACK!

[SunnyThoughts]

My husband went to gas up earlier here in Pensacola, He said all the regular unleaded was gone, had to buy the mid-grade, which is ok considering its probably cheaper than what reg will be next week, if you can find any that is. Guess everyone along the Gulf coast is taking this seriously. I'm glad they are too, considering some of these model runs....

[Ivanhater]

My husband went to gas up earlier here in Pensacola, He said all the regular unleaded was gone, had to buy the mid-grade, which is ok considering its probably cheaper than what reg will be next week, if you can find any that is. Guess everyone along the Gulf coast is taking this seriously. I'm glad they are too, considering some of these model runs....

I was driving to campus this morning , gas was 3.45, left this afternoon and it went to 3.70!

[Sambucol]

The state of Texas activated the hurricane response plan this afternoon. At 800am Thursday morning the state will activate the DMS highway signs with the hurricane PSA. At that time the state fuel team will begin to monitor fuel trends in coastal regions for supply issues and if needed activate the fuel push contracts. To support the state hurricane response plan 5000 TX National Guard troops will be placed on stand-by. 750 buses to support special needs evacuation will be staged.

Texas is taking Gustav seriously, too.

[KWT]

Well the models still aim for central Gulf as possibly a very powerful hurricane indeed. this is looking like being a very dangerous situation indeed...

[vaffie]

There really seems to be a growing trend in the globals 4-5 days out. I wonder what it might mean over the next few runs. Might the High end up being stronger at the end and blocking it towards the west? The Euro slows down just after landfall and heads westnorthwest through Louisiana. The UKMET starts curving to the west gradually just before it reaches the coast of Louisiana. The Canadian stalls it just off the coast of Louisiana. The GFS stalls it too and then drifts it westward? The NOGAPS slows down at the end to a crawl. I wonder if these 12Z model runs are on to something...

[HouTXmetro]

There really seems to be a growing trend in the globals 4-5 days out. I wonder what it might mean over the next few runs. Might the High end up being stronger at the end and blocking it towards the west? The Euro slows down just after landfall and heads westnorthwest through Louisiana. The UKMET starts curving to the west gradually just before it reaches the coast of Louisiana. The Canadian stalls it just off the coast of Louisiana. The GFS stalls it too and then drifts it westward? The NOGAPS slows down at the end to a crawl. I wonder if these 12Z model runs are on to something...

A Stall could very well occur, the question is when, where, and what happens next.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 18z...132....

[KWT]

That track really isn't good for N.O, would put them very close to the eastern eyewall.

[cajungal]

There really seems to be a growing trend in the globals 4-5 days out. I wonder what it might mean over the next few runs. Might the High end up being stronger at the end and blocking it towards the west? The Euro slows down just after landfall and heads westnorthwest through Louisiana. The UKMET starts curving to the west gradually just before it reaches the coast of Louisiana. The Canadian stalls it just off the coast of Louisiana. The GFS stalls it too and then drifts it westward? The NOGAPS slows down at the end to a crawl. I wonder if these 12Z model runs are on to something...

Seems like it still has its mind set on getting to Louisiana. Official forecast is for landfall MS/LA border. I just can't believe after just 3 short years, we have to go through this all over again. The price you pay when you live on the gulf coast.

[HouTXmetro]

Is it me or is that GFS run much further West?

[Wx_Warrior]

144

[Wx_Warrior]

Metro...yep, just a pinch...but yes