ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

I think the NHC forecast is a bit bullish, we've seen some hurricanes that never really get their inner core back after a Hispaniola trip. I think this could be a Cat 1-2 in the GOM (assuming it makes it there), but probably not any stronger. I agree that 95L will likely be a much more interesting entity to track in the coming days. Of course both are still major threats to be taken seriously.

Haha u kidding? Thats what Id expect in about 60 hours. As long as this begins restrengthening in the next 12-18 hours, which it should, significant intensification is a pretty good bet. Notice that the usually pessimistic Derek Ortt is forecasting a 120kt hurricane in the gulf in 5 days.

Derek Ortt is not pessimistic. He calls as he sees.

I'm not kidding. I don't recall a single mature, well-formed storm that has gone over Hispaniola, especially for such a long time, and recovered fully back to its original strength. Not one. If this hadn't stalled yesterday night, I'd forecast a major, but right now, I cannot see how its inner core can possibly fully recover from a 48hr stay over 8000 ft mountains. JMO. Do I think this shouldn't be watched? No, this still poses a major threat of course. Do I think the threat for a major hurricane is significantly less than 24 hr ago? Yes.

Jeanne?

[Mattie]

Moving westsouthwest.

19 minutes west, 9 minutes south since the last recon flyover.

1907N 07435W to 1858N 07454W

I want to say that I saw the project and brief west/southwest jog. I looked through the model thread, but didn't see it - but I'd almost guarantee it was somewhat forecasted earlier. BUT, who knows, right?

[KWT]

Your assuming this was fully matured wxmann_91, I don't think it was as it was only at 90mph, granted it was undergoing RI it seems the inner core wasn't amazingly powerful.

All I'll say is that if its going to get to major hurricane strength anywhere, it will be over the waters its going to track, they are explosive...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think the NHC forecast is a bit bullish, we've seen some hurricanes that never really get their inner core back after a Hispaniola trip. I think this could be a Cat 1-2 in the GOM (assuming it makes it there), but probably not any stronger. I agree that 95L will likely be a much more interesting entity to track in the coming days. Of course both are still major threats to be taken seriously.

Haha u kidding? Thats what Id expect in about 60 hours. As long as this begins restrengthening in the next 12-18 hours, which it should, significant intensification is a pretty good bet. Notice that the usually pessimistic Derek Ortt is forecasting a 120kt hurricane in the gulf in 5 days.

Derek Ortt is not pessimistic. He calls as he sees.

I'm not kidding. I don't recall a single mature, well-formed storm that has gone over Hispaniola, especially for such a long time, and recovered fully back to its original strength. Not one. If this hadn't stalled yesterday night, I'd forecast a major, but right now, I cannot see how its inner core can possibly fully recover from a 48hr stay over 8000 ft mountains. JMO. Do I think this shouldn't be watched? No, this still poses a major threat of course. Do I think the threat for a major hurricane is significantly less than 24 hr ago? Yes.

I say hurricane Jeanne.

I'm 100 percent agreement with a lot of what you say. I still believe it could really get going once it gets south of southwestern Cuba. It is all a watch and see.

[Nederlander]

It's going to be really interesting to see the 8pm advisory considering everything that happened today...

[Squarethecircle]

I'm not kidding. I don't recall a single mature, well-formed storm that has gone over Hispaniola, especially for such a long time, and recovered fully back to its original strength. Not one. If this hadn't stalled yesterday night, I'd forecast a major, but right now, I cannot see how its inner core can possibly fully recover from a 48hr stay over 8000 ft mountains. JMO. Do I think this shouldn't be watched? No, this still poses a major threat of course. Do I think the threat for a major hurricane is significantly less than 24 hr ago? Yes.

Well, it comes down to the fact that this will be a weak tropical storm with fairly favorable conditions over the next 4 or 5 days. A weak tropical storm will always be a weak tropical storm - the fact that it's exiting Hispaniola shouldn't really have much to do with it.

[CrazyC83]

Whats up with the blowup of convection south of Jamaica?

Center relocation?

[wxman57]

Gustav does look fairly bad tonight. The winds recon is finding aren't supportive of a TS. With any luck, Gustav might not survive the next 24 hours. We can only hope so.

New GFDL just in - mid MS coast.

[ColdFusion]

It's going to be really interesting to see the 8pm advisory considering everything that happened today...

What happened today? I must have missed it?

[wxmann_91]

I say hurricane Jeanne.

I'm 100 percent agreement with a lot of what you say. I still believe it could really get going once it gets south of southwestern Cuba. It is all a watch and see.

Jeanne didn't have a well-formed inner core at Hispaniola landfall. And the core remained to the north of the tallest mountains. And yes, I agree, it will have to wait until the Cuba area to start strengthening at a faster rate. Until then, it will need every degree Celsius of SST to reform some semblance of an inner core. Keep in mind that the TPC mentioned the shear increases in the GOM.

[CrazyC83]

It's going to be really interesting to see the 8pm advisory considering everything that happened today...

What happened today? I must have missed it?

Land interaction with 7,000 foot tall mountains to the south undercutting the outflow, plus some wind shear.

[Nederlander]

Whats up with the blowup of convection south of Jamaica?

Center relocation?

Can't be, its too far away from the current center, isnt it?

[wxmann_91]

Gustav does look fairly bad tonight. The winds recon is finding aren't supportive of a TS. With any luck, Gustav might not survive the next 24 hours. We can only hope so.

New GFDL just in - mid MS coast.

Yeah, there's a decent chance that Gustav won't even survive. Would be great for the Gulf Coast if it turned out to be another Hispaniola dud.

[KWT]

Its hard to say wxman57, the LLC is dispalced from the convection quite well now and as you say winds really don't suport TS strength BUT its way too early to know if this trend continues.

[Dean4Storms]

I Gus we better start looking elsewhere like 95L.

[mvtrucking]

Gustav does look fairly bad tonight. The winds recon is finding aren't supportive of a TS. With any luck, Gustav might not survive the next 24 hours. We can only hope so.

New GFDL just in - mid MS coast.

Yeah, there's a decent chance that Gustav won't even survive. Would be great for the Gulf Coast if it turned out to be another Hispaniola dud.

True but it is still a storm(Regardless of its interaction with Haiti) that is tracking west into a environment that is conducive to strengthening

[KatDaddy]

That would be awesome is Gustav just faded away. I dont want a CAT 3 and I dont want anyone else to deal with a CAT 3 along the Gulf Coast.

[Cape Verde]

I don't know where this 8000 foot legend of Haiti mountains comes from. Where the storm crossed the island, they're at like 2000 feet or less.

[Squarethecircle]

The wind prob chart doesn't show dissipation (though they are a whopping 3 hours old):

[CrazyC83]

I don't know where this 8000 foot legend of Haiti mountains comes from. Where the storm crossed the island, they're at like 2000 feet or less.

They are that high about 20-30 miles south of the center now. The storm crossed in a less mountainous area but the point area is higher. The highest in that region are about 7,000 feet.