ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namussfcwbg.gif

Is that high off Fl still supposed to move E?

[deltadog03]

Thats possible Jeff, but HWRF and GFDL both show it and still have the same landfall points.....I don't know what the heck Gus is doing!

[Rainband]

This thing is barely moving. One thing Fay showed us that weaker systems don't follow the rules. this is going somewhere in the GOM thats the only thing that is pretty likely at this point. No one should let their guard down at this point in the game. Bottom line. If you live anywhere in the GOM you should have been ready June 1rst. The rest is a crap shoot. Everyone stay safe.

[jeff]

18Z Hwrf is well west of 12Z. GFDL has been pretty stable in the last 12 hours or so. GFS is well west of its previous positions, but its wack on its intensity...as it has been much this year.

[deltadog03]

LOL your right....Well, Fay didn't know what to do....Gustav is lost at sea, and even if Hanna develops out of 95l then she might not make her mind up right away either... Bring on the cold and winter.

[jeff]

As mentioned in another thread with no real backing...I do not like SE LA...unless it is a recurve from the SSW. I see more west...maybe not as far as TX...but C/SW LA. Just a gut feeling no atmo backing...and the models...well there are decent to day 2-3 and that is about it. One problem with a 4/5 day track is a long range landfall commit point that can widely change....is that really good or really bad and I could argue both sides...but it is not going anywhere. In fact a 7 day forecast is right around the corner...imagine that with Gustav...maybe over Missouri?

[AL Chili Pepper]

As mentioned in another thread with no real backing...I do not like SE LA...unless it is a recurve from the SSW. I see more west...maybe not as far as TX...but C/SW LA. Just a gut feeling to atmo backing...and the models...well there are decent to day 2-3 and that is about it. One problem with a 4/5 day track is a long range landfall commit point that can widely change....is that really good or really bad and could argue both sides...but it is not going anywhere. In fact a 7 day forecast is right around the corner...imagine that with Gustav...maybe over Missouri?

It's funny that you should mention that because I was wondering the same thing. I read in the discussion last night where the 5 day forecast has a margin of error of something like 300 miles. Sometimes you can see a trend developing after the 3 day point, but I for one won't be planning anything around the 5 day point.

[dhweather]

If Gus doesn't hurry up and get away from Haiti, then he won't make it to the gulf. Satellite images look less impressive each update.

[LAwxrgal]

That poster x-y-no was onto something when he pointed out that there's high pressure still over Jamaica, so Gustav really has nowhere to go. He's sandwiched.

[Ivanhater]

18z NOGAPS..similar to gfdl (accept link when promted)

[Frank P]

18z NOGAPS..similar to gfdl (accept link when promted)

nothing personal IH but I need about 40 or so more miles to the east for me from this run.. maybe next run I'll get it...

[Ivanhater]

Lol Frank..how bout nowhere near us next run!

[Frank P]

Lol Frank..how bout nowhere near us next run!

even better, my bad as you guys in Pcola have taken your share fare of pounding over the past years... enjoy all your model posts.. keeps me from having to do anywork.. thanks

now you get busy finding us a model that's going to keep Gus out of the GOM because you and I both know if the gets in he's gonna want to get out.. hopefully not thru the NGOM...

[Ivanhater]

Lol Frank..how bout nowhere near us next run!

even better, my bad as you guys in Pcola have taken your share fare of pounding over the past years... enjoy all your model posts.. keeps me from having to do anywork.. thanks

now you get busy finding us a model that's going to keep Gus out of the GOM because you and I both know if the gets in he's gonna want to get out.. hopefully not thru the NGOM...

Lol..yeah,,I dont think were gonna have any bridges left up our way ..yeah hopefully the 00Z models will swing away!

[Portastorm]

It appears the tracks have shifted a bit west:

[Wx_Warrior]

Which ones? There's only a few that are worth a flip. Still believe its way too early especially with what is going on this evening...GFS may smile and laugh at us after this one...Fay now Gusy...

Here was the 18z of that same image...

[LSU2001]

As I have said before, it seems that they will flip and flop east and west until they settle down about 2-3 days out and form some good consensus. What I don't like at all is the the flips and flops are not that large. I would much rather see large swings in model runs this far out rather than the 50 to 100 mile shifts we are currently seeing. It seems that most of the models are picking up on the weakness in the ridge and seeing a north/northwest turn. With that being the case the N gulf coast from La/Tx border to P'Cola are under the gun.
Tim

[LaBreeze]

Jagno, I am praying that the HWRF is off also. Not liking that one very much.

[MJA]

OK, someone please explain to me why, if these are the same models, but run at different times, how they can come up with such different paths. Thanks.

[Javlin]

As I have said before, it seems that they will flip and flop east and west until they settle down about 2-3 days out and form some good consensus. What I don't like at all is the the flips and flops are not that large. I would much rather see large swings in model runs this far out rather than the 50 to 100 mile shifts we are currently seeing. It seems that most of the models are picking up on the weakness in the ridge and seeing a north/northwest turn. With that being the case the N gulf coast from La/Tx border to P'Cola are under the gun.
Tim

The thing I have noticed is that Model A is Pasagoula and Model B is NOLA then Model B is Mobile and A is Bay St .Louis.Lets see what happens with the 00Z models they seem a little more reliable.I will take a W shift myself when Gustav is at 83W and ?N then there will be some proof in the models.