ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ALhurricane]

See the High finally grabbed Gus.

What is being missed here is 95L which is currently undergoing formation. If this develops and tracks close enough to Gus and its gravity it could keep Gus' intensity down. Right now Gus could wreck up on Jamaica.

Sorry... that makes no sense whatsoever.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Mismatched?

Includes much more northern/central gulf coast than accu's earlier cone

Interesting forecast when all the reliable models are now safely East of Texas. The two graphics, BTW, don't seem to exactly match each other, either.

I hope Gustav's trip through the mountains has set his development back about 48 hours, so that it isn't a major, and lets hope the models keep trending Eastward. Nothing personal against Florida, but Floridians seem better prepared and handle hurricanes better than people in the Crescent City. For the same sized storm, death toll would probably be an order of magnitude lower in Florida vs South Louisiana.

Nothing against Florida again, I lived there almost a year, and I liked it.

[Ivanhater]

That little convective burst near the center (off tip of Haitii) sure is growing at quite a rapid clip. Some whites starting to show and its growing to the south of center as well. I think we may well be seeing the start of an organization/strengthening cycle

I agree..I think it's starting to reform a cdo tonight

[rockyman]

45 minutes ago:


Now:

[cycloneye]

Sanibel,95L is very far away from Gustav that it wont have influence.

[JonathanBelles]

I think with this storm, the answers will be somewhat answered just like with Fay, as soon as it passes Cuba.

[CrazyC83]

Wow it sure improved a lot in the last hour! I'd say it is definitely still a tropical storm at least.

[Portastorm]

Um Ed, better check out the 0z model runs ... they've shifted a bit west.

[ConvergenceZone]

great radar view to the poster

"as of this minute" i see it strengthening and heading toward jamaica (land of mountains)

the radar does show pretty well how tiny and easy it is for this thing to wrap back up again

this is something i think people always underestimate with tiny storms


SEAN it is headed WSW toward jamaica

Now if it DID hit the mountains of Jamaica, that WOULD be the nail in the coffin...If what it just went through ripped it apart as much as it did, there's just no way it could survive the mountains of Jamaica, but again, we don't know if it will hit Jamaica or not, the radar can be tricky sometimes.

[crazycajuncane]

I think with this storm, the answers will be somewhat answered just like with Fay, as soon as it passes Cuba.

I feel ya. I kept telling everyone at work today. Be prepared, but also try to remain calm. We really won't know anything until it passes cuba. We will have plenty of time to know what to do. Friday will be a day of many answers. I don't think we'll know much difference for another 36 hours.

[cpdaman]

the storm is so tiny it appears via radar and satelite imagery to have re-strengthened already

what was the diamater of winds on this thing , it looks like the size of hawaii but could be a very powerful little guy........he's baaaackkk..........now will it hit the 7000ft mountains of jamaica, will it matter, or will he just pop back up an hour after land

convergence zone i am not convinced jamaica would kill him, upper level conditions appear favorable so............i will check back in the morning ............time to enjoy relationship with the G/F

[Annie Oakley]

it's everyone who has ever lost the centrality of their lives in a hurricane,

What a brilliant statement-losing the centrality.......'what do I do next?'sort of being.......

[carversteve]

Seems Gus is headed towards Jamica..at his weak stage right now..Jamica would probably finish him..would it not??

[Ed Mahmoud]

Um Ed, better check out the 0z model runs ... they've shifted a bit west.

At 9:30 pm CDT, I'm pretty sure you're talking the BAMMs, and, as everyone always says, they are a model for storms in the tropics, and once North of about 25º, it isn't really the tropics.

[Sanibel]

Sorry... that makes no sense whatsoever.

I won't argue about it. But you might consider that 95L is forming while Gus is weak. If the two systems are close enough together they could limit the drawing field for energy. How many systems were near Katrina? How many near Camille? We'll see.

Sanibel,95L is very far away from Gustav that it wont have influence.

Perhaps.

[ALhurricane]

great radar view to the poster

"as of this minute" i see it strengthening and heading toward jamaica (land of mountains)

the radar does show pretty well how tiny and easy it is for this thing to wrap back up again

this is something i think people always underestimate with tiny storms


SEAN it is headed WSW toward jamaica

Now if it DID hit the mountains of Jamaica, that WOULD be the nail in the coffin...If what it just went through ripped it apart as much as it did, there's just no way it could survive the mountains of Jamaica, but again, we don't know if it will hit Jamaica or not, the radar can be tricky sometimes.

Jamaica very rarely, if ever, kills a TC like Hispaniola can. The highest mountain tops are around 2kft compared to the 6-10kft mountains on Hispaniola. Plus, Gustav is now beginning to move at a faster motion, so the island would have even less of an effect.

[Brent]

WOW, from nothing to a nice blowup in an hour.

*prepares the crow*

[cpdaman]

jamaica has a peak over 7000 feet

[Portastorm]

Um Ed, better check out the 0z model runs ... they've shifted a bit west.

At 9:30 pm CDT, I'm pretty sure you're talking the BAMMs, and, as everyone always says, they are a model for storms in the tropics, and once North of about 25º, it isn't really the tropics.

Nope, it was more than just the BAMMs. Check out the models thread. And I wrote they shifted "a bit", not 100 miles.

[LSU2001]

great radar view to the poster

"as of this minute" i see it strengthening and heading toward jamaica (land of mountains)

the radar does show pretty well how tiny and easy it is for this thing to wrap back up again

this is something i think people always underestimate with tiny storms


SEAN it is headed WSW toward jamaica

Now if it DID hit the mountains of Jamaica, that WOULD be the nail in the coffin...If what it just went through ripped it apart as much as it did, there's just no way it could survive the mountains of Jamaica, but again, we don't know if it will hit Jamaica or not, the radar can be tricky sometimes.

Jamaica very rarely, if ever, kills a TC like Hispaniola can. The highest mountain tops are around 2kft compared to the 6-10kft mountains on Hispaniola. Plus, Gustav is now beginning to move at a faster motion, so the island would have even less of an effect.

Heck, it seems most hurricanes simply jump around jamacia and move along their merry path
Tim