ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[6SpeedTA95]

Only Category Two? After traveling the entire GOM?

Not buying it.

Things like shear, TCHP, interaction with other high and low pressure systems have a large impact on storm development, not simply if it travels over the GOM.

[mattpetre]

I have never (since I've been watching storms on-line in 2004) seen a set of NHC tropical forecast points that were so far from the actual storm. This seems unprecedented to me, am I wrong?

Just appears to me right now where this is a particular case where on-line media such as this is actually able to react to changes quicker than outlets like TWC. They still are much further N. than obvious reality at this point.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?

That's my point..... your common citizen thinks a category 3 is way worse than a 2 so why not forecast a 3? We here on this forum understand that a weak 3 and a strong 2 are nearly the same, but your average citizen doesn't...... they just want to know what category the storm is.

Though even if it was still forecast to be a cat3, id say that theyre still a category too low, IMO. Assuming this continues to organize over night I think a peak around 125 or 130kt is possible. However, a strong 2 or low 3 is good at this point considering all the uncertainties.

[ColdFusion]

Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?

That's my point..... your common citizen thinks a category 3 is way worse than a 2 so why not forecast a 3? We here on this forum understand that a weak 3 and a strong 2 are nearly the same, but your average citizen doesn't...... they just want to know what category the storm is.

Well it was always kinda my rule too, stay for a 2, leave for a 3. Experience, or at least my perception of it, seemed the storm always made landfall on the low side of what was expected. So if a Cat 2 was expected, always felt by landfall it'd be a Cat 1.

THAT SAID, I'm sure countless thousands of acres of coastline were lost due to Katrina, so not so sure what LA is used to seeing from a Cat 2 will hold true for the next one.

[Sanibel]

The trop points are way off for this WSW turn.

[6SpeedTA95]

[quote="Derek Ortt
The highest mountains are about 7,400 feet for Jamaica http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Mountains_(Jamaica)

Derek... what do you think about the new track? Seems that Gustav is really throwing us all a curveball at this point. Are you bullish on development now that Cuba doesn't look like a problem or do you think Jamaica could take it down?[/quote]
Guys look at some of the prior model runs. UKMET, NAM and HWRF all predicted a SW movement of the storm. The GFDL predicted due west for quite sometime. At this point this doesn't change the forcast track much unless we have a sustained trend of west southwest movement.

[Texas Snowman]

Given the warm waters and favorable environment for several days, it would be surprising to me if this doesn't come very near to Cat 5 status at some point in its life cycle - these things can ramp up quickly when they finally get things going their way (see Dolly earlier this summer).

That's totally unofficial of course and I'm certainly not saying that Gus will make landfall at that intensity, but in the middle of the GOM, it wouldn't surprise me to see a bombing out comparable to Opal, the 2005 storms, etc.

[Stormcenter]

Only Category Two? After traveling the entire GOM?

Not buying it.

S H E A R is everyones friend. Please read the NHC discussion.
The warms waters are only one of the ingredients needed for
strengthening a storm.

[Ivanhater]

[AL Chili Pepper]

Shear in the GOM will hopefully keep him at a Cat.2 or less.

Category 2 TCs can be quite destructive. Additionally, if it slows around the time of landfall, that will exacerbate coastal flooding and wind damage...

Frederic was barely a Cat 3 (115 Sust) and destroyed Mobile

Frederic was a strong Cat 3 with 115 knt winds....130 mph

[x-y-no]

Just checked the 0z sounding at Kingston:



The ridge is backing off, so I believe the blocking that happened over the last day is definitively over. I do note the Gustav's movement is WSW as I suggested it would be due to the ridging that's there.

The other things to note are significant dry air advection above 500mb and some peculiar wind direction at 200mb and up - not sure about what's going on there. In any case, both could act to inhibit development somewhat, but probably not seriously.

[Stormcenter]

[quote="Derek Ortt
The highest mountains are about 7,400 feet for Jamaica http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Mountains_(Jamaica)

Derek... what do you think about the new track? Seems that Gustav is really throwing us all a curveball at this point. Are you bullish on development now that Cuba doesn't look like a problem or do you think Jamaica could take it down?

Guys look at some of the prior model runs. UKMET, NAM and HWRF all predicted a SW movement of the storm. The GFDL predicted due west for quite sometime. At this point this doesn't change the forcast track much unless we have a sustained trend of west southwest movement.[/quote]

The NHC believe it will move WSW for the next 24 hours. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think any of the models predicted that long of WSW motion.

[Texas Snowman]

BTW, noticed that JB forecast a WSW motion earlier today...he still thinks a Rita like track with landfall somewhere between Galveston and NOLA.

[latemodel25]

is it possible for a cat status to stall for a long length of time and dump massive amounts of rain like a trop storm does? (faye) supposed almost 30 inches. or do they move too fast for that?

[gatorcane]

Only Category Two? After traveling the entire GOM?

Not buying it.

S H E A R is everyones friend. Please read the NHC discussion.
The warms waters are only one of the ingredients needed for
strengthening a storm.

Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC just mentioned the models may be too hot on intensifying this system and "based on his calculations" they already have Gustav as an 80mph hurricane....

which clearly it is nowhere near.

[LowndesCoFire]

""Some of us have jobs, but consider this almost as important and are willing to lose a little sleep.""

Its Wednesday night. The storm is south of Cuba. Get some sleep.

[HurryKane]

TEAM SHEAR!


(just got back into Gulfport tonight, and gas prices haven't gone up. Yet.)

[tolakram]

I have never (since I've been watching storms on-line in 2004) seen a set of NHC tropical forecast points that were so far from the actual storm. This seems unprecedented to me, am I wrong?

The center is just a little south of the points. It is believed that the LLC is northwest of that new convection.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The trop points are way off for this WSW turn.

Correct...maybe we'll see some adjustments at 4:00AM?? We'll see.

[mattpetre]

[quote="Derek Ortt
The highest mountains are about 7,400 feet for Jamaica http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Mountains_(Jamaica)

Derek... what do you think about the new track? Seems that Gustav is really throwing us all a curveball at this point. Are you bullish on development now that Cuba doesn't look like a problem or do you think Jamaica could take it down?

Guys look at some of the prior model runs. UKMET, NAM and HWRF all predicted a SW movement of the storm. The GFDL predicted due west for quite sometime. At this point this doesn't change the forcast track much unless we have a sustained trend of west southwest movement.[/quote]

Only UKMET came even close to such a drastic SW movement though. This think has surprised me even and I thought for quite some time that it would react strongly to the ridge.

This shouldn't come as to much surprise to some though that thought this would be a blocking high. Obviously it's strong enough to be a blocking high, but it simply turned the storm on a 90° angle.