ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

That's the million $ answer...why models do this, why they do that.

[Sabanic]

That's the million $ answer...why models do this, why they do that.

You got that right Wx. This back and forth mess is enough to drive a person insane !!

[Max_Power]

OK, someone please explain to me why, if these are the same models, but run at different times, how they can come up with such different paths. Thanks.

Even a small change in trajectory at the current storm location can translate to a big shift 1000+ miles down the road.

[Sabanic]

OK, someone please explain to me why, if these are the same models, but run at different times, how they can come up with such different paths. Thanks.

Even a small change in trajectory at the current storm location can translate to a big shift 1000+ miles down the road.

Exactly . . current location being the key words. We are so far from knowing where Gus will go at this time, but there does seem to be a trend of a couple of models staying in the same general area. That's what concerns me.

[mattpetre]

Yes, but Gustav just threw a curveball to all models except the UKMET in the way it has repositioned SW so much tonight.

[Sabanic]

Yes, but Gustav just threw a curveball to all models except the UKMET in the way it has repositioned SW so much tonight.

True Matt. Lots of watching and waiting for all during the next few days for sure.

[Wx_Warrior]

didn't gfs note some of this....

[ROCK]

didn't gfs note some of this....

to some extent...put it this way Gus slips under Jamaica the models will be jacked up again.....

[boca]

I was just thinking that with the WSW motion will the models stay where their at tomorrow am with a wider curve once it gets into the GOM. That's only if it goes below Jamaica which Rock stated above.

[ROCK]

I was just thinking that with the WSW motion will the models stay where their at tomorrow am with a wider curve once it gets into the GOM. That's only if it goes below Jamaica which Rock stated above.

Boca, the cone stays the same width, Just repositions. From what I recall its based on forecast errors. Franklin in his DISCO goes over this very well as the error is around 300 miles....

[boca]

I was just thinking that with the WSW motion will the models stay where their at tomorrow am with a wider curve once it gets into the GOM. That's only if it goes below Jamaica which Rock stated above.

Boca, the cone stays the same width, Just repositions. From what I recall its based on forecast errors. Franklin in his DISCO goes over this very well as the error is around 300 miles....

I gotcha thanks.

[terrapintransit]

[ROCK]

that is already wrong. wrong being as of now...lol......the media at its best....

[Wx_Warrior]

I've seen some local stuff that will make you go

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 0z 24H

[ROCK]

GFS 0z 24H

this run looks good so far....Intensity ok not great with a wsw or sw motion as we are currently seeing...


looking at the loop again.....I hate it when it zig zags the track.....

[HouTXmetro]

I've seen some local stuff that will make you go

Some new local stuff? PLEASE SHARE and feel free to PM me.

[Wx_Warrior]

54h...about to clip the tip of cuba and enter gom

[Nederlander]

I've seen some local stuff that will make you go

Some new local stuff? PLEASE SHARE and feel free to PM me.

I saw it too!!

[ROCK]

day 3 and shooting the channel...hmmm....seems alittle slow.....


also note the trof sitting there red river area....not digging as much? got to wait for the update.....the suspense is killing me....