ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe I'm paying attention to the strong convection, but this appears to be DIVING SSW.

Are you saying Gus is actually moving SSW?

If that's the case wouldn't that throw a major wrench at the projected NHC path?

I'm not saying it is because I'm using IR imagery (which isn't the best tool), but if it is I still don't think it will have a huge implication on track long term. But it sure looks like it's diving SW or even SSW

[mattpetre]

Still think Gustavo could go S. of Jamaica in my humbe, unproffesional opinion.

I also do believe it is pretty far S. of the current NHC points and very far South of the previous ones. Even looking at the newest color enhancements, still looks like the llc is under the convection and quite a bit southerly from forecast. How can someone not see this? It's not a wobble it's a pretty big shift. If not, why did the forecast points change so drastically?

[bostonseminole]

have not seen any comments from the mets since it's made a comeback, it would be interesting to know their opinion if any are up still.

[mattpetre]

Maybe I'm paying attention to the strong convection, but this appears to be DIVING SSW.

Are you saying Gus is actually moving SSW?

If that's the case wouldn't that throw a major wrench at the projected NHC path?

I'm not saying it is because I'm using IR imagery (which isn't the best tool), but if it is I still don't think it will have a huge implication on track long term. But it sure looks like it's diving SW or even SSW

Really don't think it effects long term track? What about the fact that the slope of the models were very close, just the initializations were different? Looks to me that it could drastically change the final outcome to me.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, it looks like it's either going to go straight into Jamaica or perhaps under Jamaica....Doesn't look like it's going to go North of Jamaica at this point, unless it starts to turn more west within an hour or two.

[mattpetre]

have not seen any comments from the mets since it's made a comeback, it would be interesting to know their opinion if any are up still.

I honestly don't think a lot of them expected this sort of rejuvenation and if they did I'm surprised they did not stay up a little longer to watch it.

[cycloneye]

[Stormcenter]

Maybe I'm paying attention to the strong convection, but this appears to be DIVING SSW.

Are you saying Gus is actually moving SSW?

If that's the case wouldn't that throw a major wrench at the projected NHC path?

I'm not saying it is because I'm using IR imagery (which isn't the best tool), but if it is I still don't think it will have a huge implication on track long term. But it sure looks like it's diving SW or even SSW

I don't see how it cannot.

[mattpetre]

What are your opinions at this point cycloneye? I know you don't state opinions that often, usually just factual posts, but it's late and rather slow in here. This storm is vigorous right now and deserves to be discussed.

[Wx_Warrior]

My brother (KFDM_PRO_MET) is up (don't post much anymore)...said the dissipate and regeneration as expected in his eyes....long road ahead.

[Over my head]

Its going to die over eastern cuba!..what a difference a few hours make on this forum

Why am I not surprised?

In fact, I actually would have been surprised had something other than this convective blowup not happened...

There is still some shear present, and it may struggle to re-intensify for a day or so, but it's not going away anytime soon.

Wthrman13 checked in.

[mattpetre]

My brother (KFDM_PRO_MET) is up (don't post much anymore)...said the dissipate and regeneration as expected in his eyes....long road ahead.

So why did some promets earlier talk about how weak it was and even hint that it may soon die? Is he really not surprised? I am and I have thought all along that Gustav was nowhere near death, but this regeneration is pretty quick and could spell huge differences even before tomorrow.

[Praxus]

Looks like its intensifying and getting ready to hit Jamaica. They just have a tropical storm warning up; but at this rate I wonder if they may get a cat 1.

[Innotech]

I stopped to get powerball tickets at 8:30pm and the cashier was writing on a piece of paper... no regular gas. She said all they had left was the V-Power which is like 30 cents higher than the regular gas. I fueled up yesterday!

People are getting prepared. That is great!

you have NO idea how difficult it is right now to keep supplying gasoline to stations. Even in Lafayette hundreds of miles from a potential landfall it is just ridiculous. But it is even worse down by Chalmette where they are filling up drums with gasoline and burning through in an hour what usually takes a full day to sell.

[HouTXmetro]

I don't see how it cannot.

I guess you could argue that the South movement is delaying the Westward progression. This could be mean Gustav could be further south with less influence from the trough which would allow the blocking High to build in turning it more westward in the long run?

Just a guess.

[mattpetre]

Let's talk about short term track and see who gets it right. N. of Jamaica (including skirting the N. Coast), direct hit on Jamaica, or S. of Jamaica? I think you know where I stand... South

[Javlin]

Matt the forcast pts. earlier changed about .5'-.7' earlier thats about 30-42 miles really not that much.The LLC(low level circulation) is right on track.Look at the surface when you no longer can see the surface of the storm the storm has stacked properly and the clouds tops can be the predictor.We all said just a few hrs ago how sad this storm looked it has not stacked that fast and that well yet.

[Storm Contractor]

WOW! Page 210 @9:24 and then 10 pages and 1 hour and 35 minutes later and it is a different storm!

[Ivanhater]

I dont know AFM..this run has a weaker ridge backing a bit off to the east..vortmax much further east on this run..now MOBILE

[HouTXmetro]

Let's talk about short term track and see who gets it right. N. of Jamaica (including skirting the N. Coast), direct hit on Jamaica, or S. of Jamaica? I think you know where I stand... South

I'll say though the heart of Jamaica. It's hard for me to see any Hurricane sustaining a SW motion.