ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#281 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:22 pm

I wonder if this could be similar to betsy track into florida?
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#282 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:28 pm

I think the NHC will wait for visible but 95L looks very upgradable at the moment.

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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#283 Postby terrapintransit » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:33 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I think the NHC will wait for visible but 95L looks very upgradable at the moment.

Image




I Agree :eek:
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#284 Postby boca » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:39 pm

Judging by the convection in the center and the tail to its east its my opinion that 95L is already a depression and will most likely be upgraded tomorrow morning.It looks better than Gustav right now.
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#285 Postby Lifesgud2 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 9:53 pm

Looks like Bermuda is in the path for this one..Fishy Fishy
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#286 Postby jaxfladude » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:12 pm

Well, it looks like I may have to watch this system closely too.....crazy tracks :double: .........
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#287 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:19 pm

extremely impressive tonight:

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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#288 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:26 pm

Looks impressive.

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#289 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:31 pm

here we go again...invest to ts status..
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#290 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:33 pm

I think this looks way better then Gustav, even so Gustav is trying to look better. I believe this is a depression, JMO. I think it will be Hanna by 5pm tomarrow.
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#291 Postby umguy » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:35 pm

I love and hate this time of year
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#292 Postby Chigger_Lopez » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:55 pm

I think what the WEST models are seeing is this totally missing the trough and just rotating around the ULL, which would explain the NW and then SW motion that they all display. If that trough does not pick it up, then I would assume that they would all jump on this solution immediately. JMHO
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#293 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:57 pm

Chigger_Lopez wrote:I think what the WEST models are seeing is this totally missing the trough and just rotating around the ULL, which would explain the NW and then SW motion that they all display. If that trough does not pick it up, then I would assume that they would all jump on this solution immediately. JMHO


I think that is a very possible explanation...Maybe some pro mets could comment on this...

SFT
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#294 Postby bob rulz » Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:58 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think this looks way better then Gustav, even so Gustav is trying to look better. I believe this is a depression, JMO. I think it will be Hanna by 5pm tomarrow.


I thought quickscat showed no LLC?
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#295 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:00 pm

Looking at night time visible, I see that ULL is having some serious impact on this system. With the LLC about a degree to the northwest of the convection and sliding away. It maybe elongated northwest to southeast, but it may not be as well formed as I was thinking. The ULLs this season are killing almost everything.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#296 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:03 pm

bob rulz wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think this looks way better then Gustav, even so Gustav is trying to look better. I believe this is a depression, JMO. I think it will be Hanna by 5pm tomarrow.


I thought quickscat showed no LLC?



WRONG, the quickscat has been showing a closed LLC. I strongly believe it is closed.
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#297 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:05 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Chigger_Lopez wrote:I think what the WEST models are seeing is this totally missing the trough and just rotating around the ULL, which would explain the NW and then SW motion that they all display. If that trough does not pick it up, then I would assume that they would all jump on this solution immediately. JMHO


I think that is a very possible explanation...Maybe some pro mets could comment on this...

SFT


Read this from the 11pm NHC discussion on Gustav

"COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE
EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED
WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO"

If that high develops it would trap 95l and force her westward and possibly southwestard.. kind of what the Euro is showing.
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#298 Postby Chigger_Lopez » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:10 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Chigger_Lopez wrote:I think what the WEST models are seeing is this totally missing the trough and just rotating around the ULL, which would explain the NW and then SW motion that they all display. If that trough does not pick it up, then I would assume that they would all jump on this solution immediately. JMHO


I think that is a very possible explanation...Maybe some pro mets could comment on this...

SFT


Look at this WV Loop. I cant understand in my limited understanding, how 95 can go thru that ridge just like Gus cant go thru it. If it were not for the ULL, I would have to think that 95 would continue to head SW and just follow Gus right into the Carrib. Instead, it will flow NW around the ULL and if there is not rough, the high will drive it SW right into Florida. That is what I see. I am a total punk amateur though. Anyone else agree with what I see in this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#299 Postby jdjaguar » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:27 pm

95L is forming an eye.
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Re: ATL: Invest 95L in Central Atlantic

#300 Postby fci » Wed Aug 27, 2008 11:29 pm

Lifesgud2 wrote:Looks like Bermuda is in the path for this one..Fishy Fishy


Climatologically, I agree with you.

However the models are slight down the middle on it so I would not be so quick to write 95L off as a fish.
Not just yet.....
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