ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

95L is forming an eye.

Seriously? I'll need to check things out...

[boca]

The 00GFS run has a strong high building in so 95L going to be a fish I don't know about that.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144m.gif

[Praxus]

There's no eye lol

[SouthFLTropics]

95L is forming an eye.

I don't see an "eye like feature"...Trying to be meteorologically correct here...LOL

SFT

[boca]

Look what is just east of the Bahamas at 162 hrs.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162m.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

Look what is just east of the Bahamas at 162 hrs.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162m.gif

Right place but questionable intensity...If there is a high camped out over it's head I would think that it will be much stronger than what is shown there...

SFT

[fci]

And what is ESE of Puerto Rico and The VI's

[SouthFLTropics]

And what is ESE of Puerto Rico and The VI's

It's called the Cape Verde Express in full effect! Hop on board the train!

SFT

[boca]

Look at 174 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif

[boca]

I don't like a high over Virginia and a potential storm ESE of S FL. It makes me nervous.

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't like a high over Virginia and a potential storm ESE of S FL. It makes me nervous.

Yeah, you know what that means Boca...There is only one place for it to go...To us!!!

SFT

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone know if any Recon is scheduled for 95L...

Where's Walken when you need him..."NEED MORE RECON BABY!"

SFT

[RL3AO]

Anyone know if any Recon is scheduled for 95L...

Where's Walken when you need him..."NEED MORE RECON BABY!"

SFT

Friday at the earliest probably.

[Cyclenall]

Looks like Bermuda is in the path for this one..Fishy Fishy

If this hits or affects Bermuda, it's not a fish storm.

If this invest becomes Hanna and then it's remnants somehow make it up to Montana, are we going to call this Hanna Montana?

It does look remarkably better then it ever has. I'm a tad surprised it's got its act together so quickly after looking like scraps. It's definitely late August.

[umguy]

Looks like Bermuda is in the path for this one..Fishy Fishy

If this hits or affects Bermuda, it's not a fish storm.

If this invest becomes Hanna and then it's remnants somehow make it up to Montana, are we going to call this Hanna Montana?

It does look remarkably better then it ever has. I'm a tad surprised it's got its act together so quickly after looking like scraps. It's definitely late August.

HAHA Hanna Montana!!! I love it!!! I will be calling her that from this point on.

[jconsor]

I wonder if this could be similar to betsy track into florida?

I looked at the upper level pattern that accompanied Hurricane Betsy in 1965, and it is surprisingly similar to the GFS (00z) and ECMWF (12z) forecast upper level pattern by early-mid next week.

First, here is Betsy's track:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Note that it moved NW on Sep 3-4, then slowed down considerably and looped by Sep 5, culminating in a SW track by Sep 6 and then W after that.

Here is a 500 mb map on Sep 6, right as Betsy began to turn SW. Note the upper low off the northeast U.S. coast and the strong upper ridge from the Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas.


You can look at additional maps of NCEP reanalysis at:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/reanal-u.html

GFS/ECMWF initially have a more N-S oriented upper ridge, but eventually shift the ridge to a more E-W orientation, which would favor a westward movement. Also note that in addition to the GFS, the GGEM and NOGAPS have also trended toward a stronger eastern U.S. ridge by early-mid next week.

I would like to emphasize that it takes a very unusual upper air pattern for a storm that is moving N or NW at around 25-30N latitude to curve back to the SW or W and impact Florida. A more likely scenario would probably be a stall SW of Bermuda, then a slow drift for several days.

[bahamaswx]

I would like to emphasize that it takes a very unusual upper air pattern for a storm that is moving N or NW at around 25-30N latitude to curve back to the SW or W and impact Florida. A more likely scenario would probably be a stall SW of Bermuda, then a slow drift for several days.

Looks to be the season for stalled out storms. It may very well drift around Bermuda, but this thing is already not moving at all!

edit: spelling.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MILES PER HOUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

That usually means TD8 or Hanna at 5am.

[RL3AO]

Cycloneye, it said cyclone, not depression...

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, it said cyclone, not depression...

Edited.