ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[boca]

A back door front is supposed to sweep thru Florida next week which implies that a strong high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard. Thats why some of the models are trending west or SW. I think Betsy and the Yankee storm of 1935 had tracks simular to what some of the models are predicting.

Yeah Jeanne rings a bell for me.

Thanks OTown I forgot Jeanne and that was in 2004. What was I thinking.

[gatorcane]

sure looks like this will be a fish. Thats great news.

this one will need close watching over the next week. I am not convinced its going fishing.

[umguy]

sure looks like this will be a fish. Thats great news.

this one will need close watching over the next week. I am not convinced its going fishing.

I have to agree with you.

[blp]

00Z NOGAPS now on board with the ridge building in.

120hr

[cycloneye]

00z GFDL is more west and tracking erratic.

WHXX04 KWBC 280535
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.4 57.1 315./ 1.0
6 20.0 57.3 336./ 5.8
12 20.7 57.8 328./ 9.0
18 21.5 58.4 320./ 9.0
24 22.2 59.0 320./ 9.3
30 22.9 60.1 304./12.5
36 23.9 61.0 315./12.7
42 24.6 62.3 301./14.2
48 25.4 63.2 313./10.8
54 26.3 64.4 305./14.1
60 27.0 65.5 304./12.4
66 27.6 66.5 303./10.3
72 28.1 67.1 305./ 7.3
78 28.5 67.7 304./ 6.3
84 28.8 68.0 317./ 4.6
90 29.0 68.4 301./ 3.7
96 29.1 68.6 291./ 2.0
102 29.0 68.9 243./ 3.3
108 28.8 69.1 236./ 2.6
114 28.2 69.8 228./ 8.7
120 27.2 70.1 198./ 9.9
126 26.2 70.7 209./11.6

[cycloneye]

Look what the 00z GFDL does intensitywise and trackwise.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Scorpion]

Wow, I think we're gonna have to watch this closely. Definitely an interesting few days ahead.

[Cyclenall]

Look what the 00z GFDL does intensitywise and trackwise.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

That would be wicked if panned out. I haven't seen to many hurricanes just dip south that fast before . I have a feeling this is going to be a weird one (then again, what TC this season hasn't been weird?).

[Scorpion]

Euro continues to slam South FL

[Scorpion]

So far, NOGAPS, CMC, Euro, UKMET, HWRF, and GFDL are making this a threat to Florida.

[Scorpion]

[Cyclenall]

WOW, I have no idea what to say about that. I don't think I have ever seen such a massive shift in the models in such a short period of time in the years tracking TC's. Not to mention almost all of them are taking a weird track.

[Brent]

Those are some odd tracks.

Could have 2 hurricanes threatening the U.S. for Labor Day.

[bahamaswx]

Wow! That is a MASSIVE shift in the guidance, and completely unanimous.

[bahamaswx]

CMC drives her SSW starting at 96hrs

[Sihara]

Scorpion, that Euro looks wicked. Can barely see our state, buried under that intense storm - the size of it indicates that a major part of the peninsula would be affected. And not only FL - it looks like the Bahamas gets a huge slam, too. We can only hope this doesn't verify.

Wow! That is a MASSIVE shift in the guidance

That's what worries me - the complete shift of so many models, they're obviously picking up on something. As recently as yesterday morning, they mainly showed recurvature; today is a completely different picture.

[jlauderdal]

Scorpion, that Euro looks wicked. Can barely see our state, buried under that intense storm - the size of it indicates that a major part of the peninsula would be affected. And not only FL - it looks like the Bahamas gets a huge slam, too. We can only hope this doesn't verify.

Wow! That is a MASSIVE shift in the guidance

That's what worries me - the complete shift of so many models, they're obviously picking up on something. As recently as yesterday morning, they mainly showed recurvature; today is a completely different picture.

actually the euro and the bams were all over it yesterday, the others have come onboard so lets not get to crazy thinking this was a complete surprise

[Blown Away]

Following these storms and knowing climatology it's hard to accept a track like this. I was in complete denial with Jeanne almost to a point where I was not going to put up shutters. It's hard to deny model agreement. We shall see.

[KWT]

Well that upper high looks like its going to force Td8 the same way as its forced Gustav west...indeed if anything the models underdone the WSW motion by Gustav which suggests the upper high is stronger then forecasted which may well have a big role to play down the line...

to think we may get two big hurricanes in the space of a week

[Sihara]

actually the euro and the bams were all over it yesterday, the others have come onboard so lets not get to crazy thinking this was a complete surprise

True, I guess I was too focused on the others yesterday morning. By evening, the shift was already occurring, and has been consistent.