ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Scorpion]

Very cold tops over the center.

[lamsalfl]

This is all unfreakingbelievable. Now we're talking about passing south of Jamaica. None of the models saw this. This has got to be a dream.

[RL3AO]

This is all unfreakingbelievable. Now we're talking about passing south of Jamaica. None of the models saw this. This has got to be a dream.

I bet the NHC is saying the exact same thing.

[srainhoutx]

This will make for a whole new ballgame concerning future tracks. Wow. After all these years the Tropics never cease to amaze me.

[lamsalfl]

someone quick. Which general direction is it moving this second and about how fast?? Also, what are the latest coordinates??

[Innotech]

This is all unfreakingbelievable. Now we're talking about passing south of Jamaica. None of the models saw this. This has got to be a dream.

actually, one of them did but was considered an outlier.

[Texashawk]

The cone of uncertainty just blew up.

Should be an interesting discussion at 5.

[lamsalfl]

i'm going to bed. no point in staying up any longer. the storm will still be cooky when i wake up.

[lamsalfl]

whoooa

new models look west thanks to the southerly jog

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Innotech]

that is very Lili-like and thats not a good thing.

[Texashawk]

whoooa

new models look west thanks to the southerly jog

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

wow... that's a hell of a shift - not good for SETX

[RattleMan]

Watch the evolution of Gustav in the NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook thus far:

http://drop.io/lhsgdwn (click the video strip)

Includes Edouard and most of Fay too.

[lamsalfl]

The NHC will only shift the track west to Morgan City probably. No way they shift it to SW LA. They/I want to see consistency in this westward shift.

[Scorpion]

Convection continues to expand.

[lamsalfl]

where's that cuban radar?

[Brent]

where's that cuban radar?

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[rockyman]

[lamsalfl]

thanks. yeah, the storm is getting out of range.

[GeneratorPower]

Ok, fellas. First of all, your untrained eyes are probably not seeing the true center of circulation. It's probably just east of Jamaica. Second, this is not going to have a huge impact on the model spread. Many of the mets on this board have been suggesting a slight SW motion due to the expanding high pressure.

From the 11pm disco:
THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
OF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR
SO. AFTER THAT...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

Don't worry. A center relocation of a few miles probably won't throw the guidance out the window. The basic overall setup is still the same. Plus, even on your chart it's the NOGAPS and UKMET that are shifting west/left, not the GFDL and HWRF, at least not much. Give it some time and the track of the models will shift again.

Even though this is the middle of the night you guys really need to keep your shirts on and don't blow stuff out of proportion. People are watching you. In fact, 51 guests are online right now.

[RL3AO]

The pressure gradient is really weak with Gustav. Thats probably why the winds are so low despite it being a 995 mb system.