ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it was not for Jamaica, I would say there is a chance for this to become a cat4 or even a slim chance of becoming a little more. The high mountains of that island will keep this in check for the next 24 hours.

[Sjones]

WTNT42 KNHC 281113
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF
GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1130Z 17.8N 75.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 76.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.8N 78.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 80.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 82.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 91.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Ed, I anticipate that you are getting really hungry for some crow...How would you like it served?

[KWT]

Not sure the island will actually do much to Gustav even if it d0oes go over the top, its not been known to weaken hurricanes much if at all in the past...

Its really tought to know where the center is on the IR, there may be a slight warm spot where the center is but I feel its a little early to know.

either way its still strengthening, the NHC are going to have to raise the strength faster then in the previous forecasts given its ahead of where they expected it to be.

[Hurricane Cheese]

If it was not for Jamaica, I would say there is a chance for this to become a cat4 or even a slim chance of becoming a little more. The high mountains of that island will keep this in check for the next 24 hours.

I think that really depends how long Gustav hangs around Jamaica. If it sits near the island for a long period of time, as it did over Haiti, then the storm should be affected and some weakening expected. But if it begins to gain forward motion I don't expect much affect at all. Jamaica's mountains aren't as high as those on Hispaniola.

Two recent hurricanes that come to mind with Jamaica are Dennis in 2005 and of course Ivan in 2004, the latter doing what Gustav is poised to do now, dancing south of the island.

Remember, it was near Jamaica where Ivan began to deepen rapidly, becoming a category 5 as it headed towards the Caymans.

[WmE]

Not sure the island will actually do much to Gustav even if it d0oes go over the top, its not been known to weaken hurricanes much if at all in the past...

Its really tought to know where the center is on the IR, there may be a slight warm spot where the center is but I feel its a little early to know.

either way its still strengthening, the NHC are going to have to raise the strength faster then in the previous forecasts given its ahead of where they expected it to be.

Yeah I don't think Jamaica will have much of an impact on Gustav as well. We will see. There are a few high mountains on this island though.

[Sabanic]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

definately appears to have begin to move more west the last few frames... actually appears north of west to my untrained eye

Wasn't the SW movement overnight as much a relocation of the eye as it was a move to the SW?

[KWT]

The key question is just how well developed is the inner core right now, if its nice and compact then it will probably strengthen rapidly further west as it passes close to the Caymans.

I also see a hurricane warning has been issued for Jamaica.

[Sabanic]

I was wondering yesterday why so many were writing old Gus off. Sure he was getting the you know what beaten out of him, but it was only a matter of time once he got clear and over water. The scary thing is that if I am not mistaken he has yet to get into the prime waters and area where he could explode.

[Portastorm]

I was wondering yesterday why so many were writing old Gus off. Sure he was getting the you know what beaten out of him, but it was only a matter of time once he got clear and over water. The scary thing is that if I am not mistaken he has yet to get into the prime waters and area where he could explode.

Yeah, the consistency here sometimes resembles a windsock.

Very clearly Gustav is off to the races.

[Sjones]

I was wondering yesterday why so many were writing old Gus off. Sure he was getting the you know what beaten out of him, but it was only a matter of time once he got clear and over water. The scary thing is that if I am not mistaken he has yet to get into the prime waters and area where he could explode.

That's very true. I think we have yet to see what Gustav can REALLY do. It's very warm in the waters ahead which in turn should and probably will make Gustav become a monster. Those who were quick to write this off may not have taken the sst's into consideration.

[KWT]

Well the thing is Sabanic yesterday it looked like Gustav was getting exposed, then its center reformed and things seem to have gone bang in terms of convection as the center got stacked up very quickly.

[Hurricane Cheese]

I was wondering yesterday why so many were writing old Gus off. Sure he was getting the you know what beaten out of him, but it was only a matter of time once he got clear and over water. The scary thing is that if I am not mistaken he has yet to get into the prime waters and area where he could explode.

This is true. The warmest waters are still to come, located near the Caymans towards the Yucatan straits. Then of course the loop current in the gulf which has made Katrina and Rita household names. Really think this is going to be a Cat 4 at some point this weekend...if not stronger.

[WmE]

I was wondering yesterday why so many were writing old Gus off. Sure he was getting the you know what beaten out of him, but it was only a matter of time once he got clear and over water. The scary thing is that if I am not mistaken he has yet to get into the prime waters and area where he could explode.

That's very true. I think we have yet to see what Gustav can REALLY do. It's very warm in the waters ahead which in turn should and probably will make Gustav become a monster. Those who were quick to write this off may not have taken the sst's into consideration.

And more importantly the extreme heat content.

[cycloneye]

This graphic tells the story of why Gustav will be a major hurricane.

[Hurricane Cheese]

This graphic tells the story of why Gustav will be a major hurricane.

I always like to look at climatology as at least a ballpark guide for what we can expect. Take two similar storms that were in the area that Gustav will be crossing. Those storms were Ivan and Wilma. Look what happened. If the anticyclone is in place, we should see a high end major by Labor Day poised to enter the Gulf of Mexico.

[HURAKAN]

[Ed Mahmoud]

WTNT42 KNHC 281113
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO
REFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF
GUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1130Z 17.8N 75.6W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 76.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.8N 78.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 80.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 82.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 85.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 89.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 28.5N 91.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Ed, I anticipate that you are getting really hungry for some crow...How would you like it served?

Vermillion Parish is in Texas?

[dwg71]

if that is the center in graphic above its north of NHC path and maybe beginning to head more west of stlightly north of west.

[Hurricane Cheese]

I've also seemed to notice (on IR mind you so not perfect) that Gustav appears to have turned more due west, or at the very least WSW now. Has anyone noticed anything similar?

[mutley]

I was wondering yesterday why so many were writing old Gus off. Sure he was getting the you know what beaten out of him, but it was only a matter of time once he got clear and over water. The scary thing is that if I am not mistaken he has yet to get into the prime waters and area where he could explode.

That's very true. I think we have yet to see what Gustav can REALLY do.

I think he's doing it right now. Growing in size and strength very quickly. The Jamacians be needing to lookout, mon.