ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[storms in NC]

I caught the end of the tropical update on Weather Channel. Dr Lyons last night said 95L should head up near Bermuda. So I said to myself. There's trouble. Sure enough you wake up in the morning and poof. Depression possibly heading to the east coast. Nothing against Dr. Lyons. But he should be more careful with his wording. Until he knows all the facts. Which none of us do.

I saw the same tropical weather update you did. He was correct in saying "it may develop and impact Bermuda" because as of last night several good models were sending it there.

I'm sure he was noting the Euro and BAMS and how they bent the system back west but had no reason to mention that in only 10 seconds of covering 95L.

Still early in the game for TD8. But from what I read Fl I feel for you. Some of NC got some good rain from Fay. But We only got 3/10 th of a inch here. It is so dry.

[KWT]

Yeah the models expected the troguh to pick up this system however both the GFS and the ECM strongly hinted at that not being the case and now we are looking at possibly a hurricane threatening the east coast somewhere.

[gatorcane]

It's still about 8-10 days from impacting the East Coast of Florida if it does.

So things can still change regarding track.

[lbvbl]

:uarrow:

It's still about 8-10 days from impacting the East Coast of Florida if it does.

So things can still change regarding track.

Very true... What are your thoughts on the short term? Do you think it will follow NHC's track, or do you think there are any variables that may alter this?

[KWT]

Exactly gatorcane we do have a long time to track this system but with that chunky high to the NW I'd have thought it will eventually be a threat to somewhere down the coast as you've been suggesting.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Those who think it will hit S.fl. Usually live in S. Fl. Why. I don't know. After Wilma and Katrina. I want nothing but to track it out to sea. Right now it has just a good chance of hitting New Jersey as it does S. Fl. As some said. It's a week away. I'm in the watch mode. Besides look at Gustav. Last night Louisiana. Today Texas.

[boca]

I have a nervous feeling about TD8 because of that building high won't allow for the traditional escape route especially if it gets to 27 or 28n. This might pull a Betsy.

[KWT]

Yep Boca the escape path isn;t there as the high is pretty strong to the north, once this gets to 70W the only hope for it not to hit land is for the high to undergo some big weakening phase.

[lbvbl]

Maybe it's just me, but from what I'm looking at with these models, it looks like the forecasted track could take this one south of fl

[Sanibel]

You can't have two strong systems close together in this area. Doesn't happen. Looks more like a loop to me.

[lbvbl]

You can't have two strong systems close together in this area. Doesn't happen. Looks more like a loop to me.

But by the time "Hannah" would get to that point, wouldn't Gustav be long gone

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

You can't have two strong systems close together in this area. Doesn't happen. Looks more like a loop to me.

they will be far enough apart to have no major effect.

[storms in NC]

The ULL to the west of TD8 is making it flat on the west side.
Won't this hurt TD8 from developing or let it move any more to the west?

[img][/img]

[Sanibel]

they will be far enough apart to have no major effect.

Sure. Look at the tracks.

[Derek Ortt]

You can't have two strong systems close together in this area. Doesn't happen. Looks more like a loop to me.

what you posted makes no sense. These systems are not going to be close. 1500 miles apart (unless we have two Typhoon Tip sized storms) will have no affect on the other

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a 45 knot tropical storm.

[ericinmia]

You can't have two strong systems close together in this area. Doesn't happen. Looks more like a loop to me.

What was it 1995? I think...

Their were many very large powerful storms all lined up in the atlantic...
-Eric

[KWT]

Agreed Matt that looks like a tropical storm to me as well, should get upgraded soon.

[Sanibel]

what you posted makes no sense.

If you look at the expected tracks TD8 is expected to follow west behind Gus towards Florida. I fully expect if TD 8 becomes Hanna and keeps Gus weak what I wrote here will be totally ignored as usual. I could be wrong, but from what I remember none of the big Gulf storms ever had a strong hurrricane nearby in the Atlantic.