ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Bocadude85]

Is it just me or does it look like Hanna stalls for a couple of days before moving on toward the southeast coast of Florida? The reason I'm REALLY, REALLY keeping an eye on this storm is because of this:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101830&p=1793413#p1793413

The picture he posted looks like Hanna is off the South Florida coast to me with a big high to the north of her causing her to move west. He is not causing fear in anyone he is showing what the Euro has been showing for a few days now and if you play that animation of the Euro then you will see that the Euro has Hanna slam South Florida.

I would not worry to much about her right now.. if on sunday the cone is still pointing this way then I would be a little more concerned about your trip being interrupted by Hanna..

[storms in NC]

Euro 500MB plot showing future Hanna off the SE Coast of Florida approaching the the Eastern Bahamas moving west. Note this is 6 days from now.



The GFS also appears to be picking up on something around day 8 impacting Southern FL. Note strong ridging (big Bermuda High feature in the Western Atlantic):

In that one would looks like it went SW.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks to me like the GFS has her moning too fast in the 12z

[gatorcane]

Hanna at 48 hours. It does seem to fast to me:

[gatorcane]

Hanna appears to be getting trapped at 72 hours but still well east of Florida's east coast.

[x-y-no]

Hanna appears to be getting trapped at 72 hours

Yes. Out to 84 hours now and the trough axis has passed her by.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[vacanechaser]

Euro 500MB plot showing future Hanna off the SE Coast of Florida approaching the the Eastern Bahamas moving west. Note this is 6 days from now.

come on gater...in that pic the storm is certainly not "off the SE coast of FL". For that matter Gustav is the same distance from the west coast of FL as Hanna is to the east...but you're not asying Gustav is off the SW coast of FL are you? Quit the fear mongering

I am not attempting to fear monger.

To me that is certainly off the SE Coast of FL and since the Euro has it moving west, I'm just interpreting what the model is saying. I purposely did not show the 7+ day forecast by Euro.

besides, you did say it was approaching the bahamas... come on... lets chill out a bit here... it is what it is...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Lifesgud2]

Hanna appears to be getting trapped at 72 hours but still well east of Florida's east coast.

meaning??

[x-y-no]

Hanna appears to be getting trapped at 72 hours but still well east of Florida's east coast.

meaning??

Meaning in this run she misses the connection to the trough and will be steered westward or southwestward.

[gatorcane]

This is a significant run because the prior run GFS had her turning NE out to sea and now is on board with the model consensus of a west turn.

Out to 120 hours now and Hanna appears to have made the west bend. She looks to be heading WSW even. Note the big High Pressure system moving in from the NE CONUS:

[x-y-no]

Interesting ... by 120 hours it's pulling it apart:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

Losing her convection off to the NE, elongating into a trough.

Don't think I believe that - kind of reminiscent of how the GFS kept trying to decouple Gustav.

[gatorcane]

Interesting ... by 120 hours it's pulling it apart:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

Losing her convection off to the NE, elongating into a trough.

Don't think I believe that - kind of reminiscent of how the GFS kept trying to decouple Gustav.

Maybe its due to proximity to Gustav?

Gustav looks a bit sheared also

[DESTRUCTION5]

I see the pattern though..She is trapped in this run....

[vacanechaser]

Interesting ... by 120 hours it's pulling it apart:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

Losing her convection off to the NE, elongating into a trough.

Don't think I believe that - kind of reminiscent of how the GFS kept trying to decouple Gustav.

seems to happen alot of the gfs!!! lol.. hey, at least it sees gustav in that run!!!



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gatorcane]

GFS actually is sending her SSW between 72 and 120 hours, like the Euro now...

[gatorcane]

and the GFS seems to just lose Hanna at 144 hours but sends whatever is left SW towards the SE Bahamas.

I would doubt the GFS intensity forecast here as we have seen with Gustav -- but the fact Hanna is getting trapped is the key thing to note from this run....

[Just Joshing You]

HWRF has a Cat 3

[gatorcane]

The GFS loses Hanna but takes the remnants through Southern FL in 8 days. Again don't focus on the GFS intensity forecast, but note the steering currents are showing that a west bend is going to happen at least with this run:

[Bocadude85]

when will the rest of the 12z models come out

[fci]

thanks derek for a serious reply

i was just pointing out what seems to be a weak link in forecasting accuracy and as they say your only as strong as your weakest link, trying to get feed back as to why are there such limitations on forecasting ull and how/what/if PRO forecasters can do to improve on these limitations- i didn't mean to sound like a jerk

You had a fair question as to why the Pros and NHC seem to throw their hands in the air when it comes to forecasting when ULL's are present. Derek was honest in their effect and I am sure that there Pro's like Derek out there doing research on the problems that ULL's present to forecasters.

upper lows can be poorly forecast by models because there is very little data over the oceans to initialize the models with in the upper levels

The best scenario I see in the short-term is that the ULL rips Hanna apart so much she cannot regenerate

This is the best short and LONG term.
The ULL killing off Hanna solves our problem until the "next one" which hopefully won't have the same synoptics as she has with the blocking high.

I STILL question what effect Gustav might have on the future of Hanna if she gets past the ULL kicking her butt right now.