Ex Invest 96L - Bay of Campeche

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Re:

#41 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:35 am

extradited wrote:*cough* Humberto


Shut yer mouth! :lol:
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#42 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:37 am

CrazyC83 wrote: Maybe tomorrow?


They don't mention anything in today's update for tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Bay of Campeche

#43 Postby cpdaman » Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:38 am

well with hanna being a little tiny swirl now devoid of much convection and not looking to change in at least 24 hours, and gustav being the main show, this 96L appears to have taken over second place now, and well deserved because it is so close to land and we really have no idea it's strength.

a north motion would certainly concern me.....boy and confuse everyone along the gulf coast
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#44 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:40 am

Yes, I'm wondering if the same High is steering 96L and Gustav and what happens if 96L somehow slides North?
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#45 Postby Just Joshing You » Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:42 am

28/1515 UTC 19.4N 95.1W T1.5/1.5 96L
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Bay of Campeche

#46 Postby FireBird » Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:44 am

I'm still gawking at this! I think if it's a slow mover like the other storms this season, we may have a TD by landfall (if it maintains current course)...
Just reinforces the need to be prepared at a moment's notice.
BTW, I picked up a site showing models developing 96L as if it were an area off N. Carolina rather than BOC. Anything happening there that could be causing confusion?
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Bay of Campeche

#47 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:46 am

FireBird wrote:IBTW, I picked up a site showing models developing 96L as if it were an area off N. Carolina rather than BOC. Anything happening there that could be causing confusion?


There hasn't been a model run for 96L yet. The old 96L was likely Cristóbal!
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#48 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:51 am

Very good T numbers, not far off being a TD if thats the case, think this probably has caught a few by surprise though I do recall some people mentioning it before. Looks like we've got one of those near Mexico rapid developers.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Bay of Campeche

#49 Postby Buck » Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:58 am

I'm interested to hear what they'll have to say at 2pm.
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#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:05 pm

I'd send an emergency Recon flight out there...IMO this is TD9...
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#51 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:08 pm

Breaking News: Veracruz, México, reporting West 5 mph and 1011 mb.

Latest Noon (16) Aug 28 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.87 (1011) W 5 light rain

Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html
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Re:

#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:09 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Breaking News: Veracruz, México, reporting West 5 mph and 1011 mb.

Latest Noon (16) Aug 28 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.87 (1011) W 5 light rain

Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html


I wonder if the NHC will find out about that?

I'd be initiating advisories right now with a Tropical Storm Warning for the coastal areas personally...
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#53 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:24 pm

I think given the Dvorak estimates of 1.5 plus suggestions of a westerly wind may well be enough for it to get upgraded however I think the NHC would like to see the westerly wind hold for a little while.
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Re: ATL: Invest 96L - Bay of Campeche

#54 Postby Buck » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:25 pm

I think recon is a great idea right about now.
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#55 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:26 pm

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#56 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:28 pm

Organizing quite quickly! May make a run for TS before landfall. Been a while since we got a quick BOC TS.
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Re:

#57 Postby Buck » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:28 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

Do you see what I see? 8-)


Whoa!
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#58 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:29 pm

West bound into MX. and will have little time to develop into anything much more than a weak to mid range TS IMO.
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Re:

#59 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:29 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

Do you see what I see? 8-)


If its thats far out, plenty of time to blow up into a named storm.
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#60 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 28, 2008 12:30 pm

Looks like its heading NW, no doubt thats a TD right here and now and probably close to a TS based on that presentation, wonder if this will strengthen as rapidly as Lorenzo did last year?
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