ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Tampa DMB Fan]

Looks like hanna maybe paying our area a visit early next week. I am going to get all my stuff together today before everyone else finds out about her.

This is smart thinking. Even if Hanna misses you'll be good for the next storm. I'm on the otherside of Florida but I think i'm going to do the same.

[gerrit]

perhaps the pro's at the NHC should learn to study/forecast ULL's a bit better, they can't be this unforecastable can they?!

Yeah let's send them to your high school

[lbvbl]

Looks like hanna maybe paying our area a visit early next week. I am going to get all my stuff together today before everyone else finds out about her.

Don't get me wrong I respect the fact that youre getting prepared early... but I thought it's 8-10 days out, so it would be sometime next weekend?

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg

The following link shows the water vapor loop for the Atlantic.

The ULL near Hanna does not appear to be moving SW as forecast. Does this have any future implications?

[Vortex]

The exposed LLC is temporary and in 2-3 days conditions will vastly improve as the ULL drops sw and loses its influence over Hana...12 Z GFS is very concerning as it builds in very strong ridging to the north much like the euro. If this verifies Hanna will turn wsw/w and make a run for the bahamas and florida.

[Sal Collaziano]

Hanna seems to stall a bit before making landfall on the east coast of Florida. I would say that if the tracks stays as is, it'll be late next week or the weekend before we see the storm.

As for The Weather Channel - times change. Remember MTV?

Looks like hanna maybe paying our area a visit early next week. I am going to get all my stuff together today before everyone else finds out about her.

[KWT]

Well the only thing is vortex the models aren't exactly great at handling these ULL, remember Fay when the ULL was meant to drop but instead it clung to Fay for about 24hrs longer then progged.

This is slightly different though and it should be able to shake off the ULL eventualy but by that time Gustav's outflow may cause some shearing issues as well, we shall have to wait and see!

[gatorcane]

Hanna seems to stall a bit before making landfall on the east coast of Florida. I would say that if the tracks stays as is, it'll be late next week or the weekend before we see the storm.

As for The Weather Channel - times change. Remember MTV?

Looks like hanna maybe paying our area a visit early next week. I am going to get all my stuff together today before everyone else finds out about her.

Models only stall Hanna because there are some weak steering currents between the time the CONUS trough pushing into the Northern Atlantic pulls out and the big High pressure system behind it builds in.....

Then GFS and Euro both accelerate Hanna to the W or even SW once the High builds into the north of Hanna.

[tolakram]

Hanna is running right into it.

[eastcoastFL]

I dont want to take any chances. The storms coming at us from this direction don't have too much in there was as far as land goes so they really freak me out a little more.

[Category 5]

perhaps the pro's at the NHC should learn to study/forecast ULL's a bit better, they can't be this unforecastable can they?!

Where's your met degree buddy?

[Bocadude85]

If Hanna is to survive the shear will have to let up

[KWT]

If anything that ULL is moving a little closer to Hanna as well, think this will be a TD again before to long if convection doesn't strengthen again.

[lbvbl]

I dont want to take any chances. The storms coming at us from this direction don't have too much in there was as far as land goes so they really freak me out a little more.

Yeah i completely agree.. I live in SE FL too so I will be watching this one very closely. What also makes me nervous is the amount of warm water is still has to travel over before getting close to land. I mean, if Gus doesn't cause shear to weaken Hanna, I see no reason that this won't become a major hurricane.

[Patrick99]

Well, I still have the batteries and water jugs I purchased before Fay, so I'd say I have a leg up.

I'm sure that somewhere, federal emergency managers are crunching numbers related to the "possible" (statistically unlikely, probably won't happen, but possible) scenario of two major hurricanes near-concurrently making direct hits on New Orleans, and Miami/Ft. Lauderdale. This is what their eyes are probably looking like when they estimate the cost of such a scenario:

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

Looks like Hanna may be taking a bit more of NW movement now --- which should help her get around the ULL causing the shear.

[Derek Ortt]

upper lows can be poorly forecast by models because there is very little data over the oceans to initialize the models with in the upper levels

[fci]

Hanna seems to stall a bit before making landfall on the east coast of Florida. I would say that if the tracks stays as is, it'll be late next week or the weekend before we see the storm.

As for The Weather Channel - times change. Remember MTV?

Looks like hanna maybe paying our area a visit early next week. I am going to get all my stuff together today before everyone else finds out about her.

Just for grins I went to the "how close will it be" part of Storm Caribe and it extrapolated that if the track remained the same that Hanna would be closest to where I live (Lake Worth) on September 8th.

Link to the site:
http://stormcarib.com/closest.htm

[gatorcane]

upper lows can be poorly forecast by models because there is very little data over the oceans to initialize the models with in the upper levels

The best scenario I see in the short-term is that the ULL rips Hanna apart so much she cannot regenerate