ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[HouTXmetro]

I don't think there has been a single reliable model showing Texas landfall all day and the model cluster is getting tight.


I hate to jump the gun, but I ALWAYS say this when the situation calls for it. When you see a model cluster like this, you can pretty much take it to the bank. SW LA- Mobile AL will be the landfall position.


(P.S. don't be fussy over my post- it's of course an opinion- as all posts by users are)


Also...finally made Category 5 Status!

You might want to look again. Do you see the WNW heading at the end of the model runs? It's not going to take much of a track change to put this into the upper Texas Coast. If the current GFS/UKMET/HWRF parts of the Texas Coast will be under a Hurricane Warning too.

[Weatherfreak000]

I don't think there has been a single reliable model showing Texas landfall all day and the model cluster is getting tight.


I hate to jump the gun, but I ALWAYS say this when the situation calls for it. When you see a model cluster like this, you can pretty much take it to the bank. SW LA- Mobile AL will be the landfall position.


(P.S. don't be fussy over my post- it's of course an opinion- as all posts by users are)

The GFS isn't reliable? And yeah I know how it has not grasped Gustav much at all but are you also saying that it is clueless about all of the atmospheric parameters at play?

I don't think it's worth mentioning at all when it comes to handling Gustav UNLESS Gustav falls apart, otherwise we're talking about a potentially completely different synoptic pattern.

SO to answer your question...yes, I am discounting it currently.

Rock- True, but typically (and when I say typically I say....75% of the time of greater) when you see a model cluster such as we're seeing now...only a very drastic change in the forecast will change it. I believe that will be decided when the storm makes the NW turn. I'd say anyone in Texas should of course be alert- but not threatened.

[Sabanic]

What is that BLUE model? Oh it's just the GFDL nevermind.

[ROCK]

I don't think there has been a single reliable model showing Texas landfall all day and the model cluster is getting tight.


I hate to jump the gun, but I ALWAYS say this when the situation calls for it. When you see a model cluster like this, you can pretty much take it to the bank. SW LA- Mobile AL will be the landfall position.


(P.S. don't be fussy over my post- it's of course an opinion- as all posts by users are)

The GFS isn't reliable? And yeah I know how it has not grasped Gustav much at all but are you also saying that it is clueless about all of the atmospheric parameters at play?

I don't think it's worth mentioning at all when it comes to handling Gustav UNLESS Gustav falls apart, otherwise we're talking about a potentially completely different synoptic pattern.

SO to answer your question...yes, I am discounting it currently.

Rock- True, but typically (and when I say typically I say....75% of the time of greater) when you see a model cluster such as we're seeing now...only a very drastic change in the forecast will change it. I believe that will be decided when the storm makes the NW turn. I'd say anyone in Texas should of course be alert- but not threatened.

Discounting the GFS? Blashemy.... 25% chance it moves farther west in 5 days? I will take that bet everyday of the week...

[Portastorm]

Weatherfreak000, have you looked at the 12z GFS 500 mb patterns from 96 hours to about 150 hours? Do you see why the storm is almost blocked and then shunted westward?

I'm not talking about how the GFS handles the storm itself ... but look at what is going on around it. That's all I'm saying. I don't discount that the bulk of the modeling has been consistently on Louisiana. But look at the 0z and 12 GFS runs at the 500 mb and 850 mb levels and the synoptics at play and you'll see stronger ridging at those hours than originally thought.

[AL Chili Pepper]

You finish that model? Hanna cleans up after Gusy in NOLA....WOW....Hope that's not the case!

Good grief....Hanna in the Gulf has to be one of the largest hurricanes I've ever seen on the Euro....area wise anyway.

[LaBreeze]

I forgot, how soon do watches/warnings go up for storms?

[Stormcenter]

I don't think there has been a single reliable model showing Texas landfall all day and the model cluster is getting tight.


I hate to jump the gun, but I ALWAYS say this when the situation calls for it. When you see a model cluster like this, you can pretty much take it to the bank. SW LA- Mobile AL will be the landfall position.


(P.S. don't be fussy over my post- it's of course an opinion- as all posts by users are)


Also...finally made Category 5 Status!

You might want to look again. Do you see the WNW heading at the end of the model runs? It's not going to take much of a track change to put this into the upper Texas Coast. If the current GFS/UKMET/HWRF parts of the Texas Coast will be under a Hurricane Warning too.

Please correct if I'm wrong but did the latest GFDL nudge a little westward since this morning run.

[Brent]

I forgot, how soon do watches/warnings go up for storms?

Watches=36 hours, Warnings=24 hours.

[dwg71]

Minor move for GFDL, its been 100 miles give or take each direction the past 48 hours or so.

[Steve]

>>You finish that model? Hanna cleans up after Gusy in NOLA....WOW....Hope that's not the case!

Just saw that. Yikes. I mean, that's freaking insane. I'm a little closer to progged landfall than the City of New Orleans - over here in Lafourche Parish. We're about 50 miles north of Grand Isle, a few feet above sea level, but surrounded by water (which is all South Louisiana pretty much is anymore). A double shot like the ECMWF has is pretty much the deathknell for the US Gulf Coast. I'm not saying any of that is going to happen (haven't looked at anything since late Tuesday night), but if "if" was the ECMWF model, it doesn't get a whole lot more insane than that.



Steve

[Brent]

You finish that model? Hanna cleans up after Gusy in NOLA....WOW....Hope that's not the case!

Good grief....Hanna in the Gulf has to be one of the largest hurricanes I've ever seen on the Euro....area wise anyway.

link?

Sick. Note: THIS IS NOT GUSTAV. This is Hanna.

[93superstorm]

Then it looks like something else is heading west after hanna, long weeks are ahead:

[Stormcenter]

>>You finish that model? Hanna cleans up after Gusy in NOLA....WOW....Hope that's not the case!

Just saw that. Yikes. I mean, that's freaking insane. I'm a little closer to progged landfall than the City of New Orleans - over here in Lafourche Parish. We're about 50 miles north of Grand Isle, a few feet above sea level, but surrounded by water (which is all South Louisiana pretty much is anymore). A double shot like the ECMWF has is pretty much the deathknell for the US Gulf Coast. I'm not saying any of that is going to happen (haven't looked at anything since late Tuesday night), but if "if" was the ECMWF model, it doesn't get a whole lot more insane than that.



Steve

For entertainment purposes only.

[Stormcenter]

Have any of the models forecasted Gustav track correctly since it formed?

[HouTXmetro]

Have any of the models forecasted Gustav track correctly since it formed?

No

[jasons2k]

I don't think there has been a single reliable model showing Texas landfall all day and the model cluster is getting tight.

I hate to jump the gun, but I ALWAYS say this when the situation calls for it. When you see a model cluster like this, you can pretty much take it to the bank. SW LA- Mobile AL will be the landfall position.

(P.S. don't be fussy over my post- it's of course an opinion- as all posts by users are)

Also...finally made Category 5 Status!

My "fuss" is that when you're still 5 days away you CANNOT take the models to the bank, and doing so can be very dangerous.

As Jeff Linder, a pro met just wrote in an email I just got:

The forecast with any certainty will not really be available until Saturday morning when Gustav enters the SE Gulf and a clear picture of ridge intensity is confirmed over the SE US. It should be noted that forecast confidence is highly uncertain…more so than usual.

[BigB0882]

I'm not going to even worry about any models showing anything until I find out more about what this ridge will do. It very well could push it much further west or it may not push it at all. Until we know that, we can't really know where Gustav may go. Saturday morning should be interesting. I'm going to be nervous when I wake up and pull up the latest models.

[Javlin]

Have any of the models forecasted Gustav track correctly since it formed?

Stormcenter I had a site yesterday I linked to and save related to oil/gas production loss due to Gustav and they showed the NHC model of course and they showed another without naming they had been tracking as the most successful with Gustav to that point.The model appeared to be either the HWRF or the GFDL for the location they projected was the MGC about 50 miles E of the NHC.I have tried to hit the site today but it is tring to redirect me to nothing now except a new search engine.

[HouTXmetro]

Have any of the models forecasted Gustav track correctly since it formed?

Stormcenter I had a site yesterday I linked to and save related to oil/gas production loss due to Gustav and they showed the NHC model of course and they showed another without naming they had been tracking as the most successful with Gustav to that point.The model appeared to be either the HWRF or the GFDL for the location they projected was the MGC about 50 miles E of the NHC.I have tried to hit the site today but it is tring to redirect me to nothing now except a new search engine.

That would have been the GFDL near MS.