ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HouTXmetro]

THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF LOUISIANA.

Sounds like they are not buying the GFS and Texas is looking better.

[weatherguru18]

A slight shift to the west. I know for sure that one of the local stations in Houston will be doing hourly cut-ins starting tomorrow. This morning at 8am, TXDOT was to activate the freeway traffic signs to hurricane info. Is that correct?

[KWT]

Very tough to call I suppose whether this was a hurricane or not upon landfall, you don't get much closer then what was shown by recon to being a hurricane.

The thing I take away from that discussion is the note of the possibility of RI occuring in the NW Caribbean. In other words without creating to much panic they are accepting that they could be too low in terms of the strength forecast.

Also yep a tiny bit further west, still very bad for N.O however if that track stays as it is.

[sealbach]

NHC shifted the track ever so slightly to the east.

[ROCK]

A slight shift to the west. I know for sure that one of the local stations in Houston will be doing hourly cut-ins starting tomorrow. This morning at 8am, TXDOT was to activate the freeway traffic signs to hurricane info. Is that correct?

Well fixin to leave work so I will tell you when I get home....this am it was 'fill your gas tanks hurricane season is here"...

[jasons2k]

A slight shift to the west. I know for sure that one of the local stations in Houston will be doing hourly cut-ins starting tomorrow. This morning at 8am, TXDOT was to activate the freeway traffic signs to hurricane info. Is that correct?

That's what I thought too, but they had been already activated yesterday on my drive home. Speaking of that, time to beat the traffic.

[weatherguru18]

I think it is irresponible of the media to keep shouting N.O. N.O. N.O...nobody knows. I think it gives a false sense of security to other locations like Houston. Though my parents went to the store yesterday and batteries and water were in short supply. So I guess people are taking it pretty seriously.

[cycloneye]

[N2Storms]

[quote="HouTXmetro"]THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF LOUISIANA.

Sounds like they are not buying the GFS and Texas is looking better.[/quote]



I wouldn't read too much into that...it may have simply been a case of misspeaking...considering a good portion of the Texas Coastline is in "The Cone" I think what he meant to say was that the entire Gulf Coast still needs to be vigilant.

[MJA]

THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF LOUISIANA.

Sounds like they are not buying the GFS and Texas is looking better.

I thought that was interesting too.

[CrazyC83]

Very tough to call I suppose whether this was a hurricane or not upon landfall, you don't get much closer then what was shown by recon to being a hurricane.

The thing I take away from that discussion is the note of the possibility of RI occuring in the NW Caribbean. In other words without creating to much panic they are accepting that they could be too low in terms of the strength forecast.

I agree that the NW Caribbean is the best chance for rapid intensification, possibly explosive intensification if a solid core emerges out of Jamaica. One possibility is that it hits the Yucatan by following 96L though...

[hurrican19]

NHC shifted the track ever so slightly to the east.

There is actually a very very slight shift, but not enough to make a difference where it landfalls at this point.

[oyster_reef]

NHC shifted the track ever so slightly to the east.

There is actually a very very slight shift, but not enough to make a difference where it landfalls at this point.

agreed... but it could be the start of another trend...

[Steve]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Western basin looking like it's juiced or on 'roids (Fay, Hanna, Gustav, 96L all curled up). Guessing this must be a strong MJO or big amplification or something causing this particular look. SOI didn't telegraph it (slightly negative, to neutral to slightly positive - but nothing extreme to show a potential swing.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... SOIValues/

[survived alica]

Hello All new here, just wanted to say alot of good info here.

[KWT]

weatherguru18, problem is thats where a lot of the models are pointing, no where is safe yet I agree but there is growing support for a LA hit and the NHC do suggest something close to N.O

[CrazyC83]

Also I agree with 60 kt right now, since it would have weakened a bit being over land for 3 hours. I do think Jamaica was hit by a hurricane though (65 kt at landfall).

[Weatherfreak000]

This storm is simply going to be a test of accuracy for the NHC.


Global Models and the NHC track have been consistent...if the storm follows through it's proof enough after Fay earlier this year and the positively stellar performance they had last year that forecasting is generally improving past what we saw in 2005.

[weatherguru18]

NHC shifted the track ever so slightly to the east.

Huh? It's basically right over Vermilion Bay. It definitely shifted west...but like somebody else said, basically only 10 miles. If the models continue to show a west bend by day 5, expect the track to continue to shift west. I think the models are reading too much into the approaching trough. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Gustav weaker and further south than the models had indicated a couple days ago? I just favor a track closer to the Yucatan Peninsula honestly and then final landfall between Freeport, TX and Vermilion Bay, LA. That's strictly my opinion.

[randge]

Now that the tracks seem to be generally pointing to the central Gulf Coast, some of us are wondering what the prog's are once this storm make landfall where all the modeling comes to a dead halt.

Any takers on when Gustav may turn after landfall?