MiamiensisWx wrote:I definitely agree that it is extremely important to avoid the dire "doom" prognostications, but it seems like we (collectively) start to ascribe "shear", "dry air", etc. to every TC that enters the Gulf of Mexico (after Lili, Katrina, Ivan, Dennis, Opal, et al weakened prior to landfall). You must ask the question, "If an identical repeat of Carla, Camille, Celia, Eloise, or Frederic occurred today, would we initially assume the TC would weaken significantly prior to landfall based on other past examples?" It seems like we're becoming too accustomed to TCs behaving homogeneously as they approach the Gulf Coast. It is also important to note that Lili still caused extensive wind/flooding damages in rural areas, although the wind damage was obviously not as "bad" as the potential Cat 3+ landfall initially suggested. Most people tend to underestimate the strength of strong TS/Cat 1/Cat 2 winds. It is also notable that many people on this forum downplayed Katrina as it weakened, and we all observed the premature "New Orleans/Gulf Coast dodged the bullet" headlines. Obviously, Katrina, Ivan, Dennis, and Opal were still very destructive TCs even after weakening, and they produced a broad swath of TS/Cat 1 winds that caused extensive damages, in addition to the tremendous surge destruction. Since these weakening TCs (under different synoptic environments than Camille, Carla, Frederic, Eloise, etc.) inflicted extreme monetary and human losses, the prospects of a TC that does not weaken significantly prior to landfall (along a very vulnerable region) are very unsettling. I have an uncomfortable suspicion that we will be surprised one day. I'm NOT stating that Gustav will be "the one"; I'm merely advocating another perspective to keep in mind as well.
Excellent post! This is all so true.
