ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Steve]

Hey strat,

Check out the TS winds graphic. I don't think I've ever seen this before:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents

[KWT]

looks to be still on land heading about due west, convective feature south is deceptive because of its movement. We will see.

nope this is certainly over the water just south of Kingston, we've got ENE winds from there which mans center is to the south, vis imagery suggested that and now Microwave imagery clearly shows the inner core has gone SW and is now over water.

[amawea]

The weather channel stated that the center of circulation is just south of Kingston about 20 minutes ago.

[Stratosphere747]

Hey strat,

Check out the TS winds graphic. I don't think I've ever seen this before:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 0#contents

*lol*

I think they ran the program a few times to make sure the wasn't some virus involved. Crazy stuff indeed.

[KWT]

Yep amawea its pretty obviously its down there looking at the latest microwave imagery, its saved itself a big trip over some very large mountions, probably will still weaken a little but we will have to wait and see.

[tolakram]

Look at the wind shift from west/nw to east. As noted earlier by other posters the center of Gustav, if this is believable, must be south of Kingston. I can't quite describe how it got there.

Kingston:

[wxman57]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/07L.GUSTAV/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

This confirms my thinking of the center back over water south of Jamaica.

I noticed that before I left work. Center seems to have decided it didn't like mountains.

[TideJoe]

The weather channel stated that the center of circulation is just south of Kingston about 20 minutes ago.

Lyons also said that Gustav was about dead last night..... I'd recommend sticking with the guys at the NHC. They're the best at what they do and have more resources.

[TideJoe]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc08/ATL/07L.GUSTAV/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/Latest.html

This confirms my thinking of the center back over water south of Jamaica.

I noticed that before I left work. Center seems to have decided it didn't like mountains.

Gustav must be Ivan's cousin.

[amawea]

I hear ya TideJoe, but a lot of folks here were saying the same thing. It looks pretty obvious to me that the circulation has jumped s.w. south of Kingston.

[jasons2k]

Any reason to think it would shift West as opposed to staying nearly constant or shifting East towards P'cola?

Why didn't the NHC mention Texas in their discussion, but they did say that the Panhandle and the entire LA coast was in danger?

The answer to this is an obvious one - Texas is beyond the 120-hour timeframe (look at s2k's cone). The probabilties are still virtually zero for hours 0-120. There's no conspiracy or other reasoning to leave it off.

[vaffie]

It just goes to show that we should remember how much of a surprise we might see. As early as 2 am this morning, it's present location south of Jamaica was outside the cone. Just goes to show the kind of error you might see for a 120 hour cone...

[tolakram]

I can't help but wonder if the terrain of Jamaica, with a rather smooth rise of the mountains, allows centers to slide off. Something similar to fluid dynamics.

[jasons2k]

It just goes to show that we should remember how much of a surprise we might see. As early as 2 am this morning, it's present location south of Jamaica was outside the cone. Just goes to show the kind of error you might see for a 120 hour cone...

Exactly. If we're off ~150 miles in a day what makes people so sure that NOLA is a lock?

[Smurfwicked]

I guess I am not understanding something, everybody seems so set on on central Louisiana along with the threat remaining or increasingly east of there. From all I can see and gather it seems to me the threat is increasing more towards the west of central Louisiana. I am not saying currently Louisiana coast is not at the highest risk, but that I expect more shift to the west that only a few here seem to agree on.

This posts is NOT a official forecast and should not be used as such. This is just the opinion of the myself and is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Haven't seen the pro mets chime in much today on what their predictions are, is this because they haven't changed or waiting seeing how long current trends last, or just more data?

[KWT]

Wxman57, its almost like Gustav remembers what the mountions did last time to it

Well the NHC is very likely to shift the center to the south over the waters near Kingston. The key is does Gustav continue going round the outside like Ivan our does it now again head inland?

[Over my head]

I keep looking at the graphic archive on Gustav to see how the cone and line changes. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

I checked on Rita too and boy was that off until nearly the landfall.

So even tho I am watching and I will leave when/if it's time I think it needs to get a little closer before anyone can pin the tail on the donkey.

[tolakram]

From the observation thread this is a clue:

Spoke too soon...
From: Corinne.Smith at digicel.blackberry.com
Date: Thu, 28 Aug 2008 22:52:22 +0000

The power went off just after my last post, which is about the time the wind
pickeD up, a tree fell across the road just down the hill, and then
transformers started blowing all around the neighbourhood. Its been very calm
for the last two hours or so; perhaps it was the eye? Its picking up again now,
and coming from the opposite direction so hopefully this means the end of
gustav soon. For Kingston, at least.

Corinne

Sent from my BlackBerry® device from Digicel

Looks like the center must have moved SW right over Kingston.

[Brent]

I guess I am not understanding something, everybody seems so set on on central Louisiana along with the threat remaining or increasingly east of there. From all I can see and gather it seems to me the threat is increasing more towards the west of central Louisiana. I am not saying currently Louisiana coast is not at the highest risk, but that I expect more shift to the west that only a few here seem to agree on.

This posts is NOT a official forecast and should not be used as such. This is just the opinion of the myself and is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Haven't seen the pro mets chime in much today on what their predictions are, is this because they haven't changed or waiting seeing how long current trends last, or just more data?

I'm definitely not ruling out anything yet. Some of the models are showing a left turn before landfall which obviously increases the threat to TX not to mention the 5-day error averages 300 miles. I actually think if there is a trend today it is slightly west and while I think LA is the best option right now, certainly TX can't be ruled out and neither can MS/AL.

[wxman57]

I guess I am not understanding something, everybody seems so set on on central Louisiana along with the threat remaining or increasingly east of there. From all I can see and gather it seems to me the threat is increasing more towards the west of central Louisiana. I am not saying currently Louisiana coast is not at the highest risk, but that I expect more shift to the west that only a few here seem to agree on.

This posts is NOT a official forecast and should not be used as such. This is just the opinion of the myself and is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Haven't seen the pro mets chime in much today on what their predictions are, is this because they haven't changed or waiting seeing how long current trends last, or just more data?

I don't really feel confident in where final landfall will be. I'm thinking that if Gustav deviates from the current track (mine is toward eastern Vermilion Bay) then it would more likely move inland more to the west, possibly even toward the upper TX coast.