ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[HouTXmetro]

Latest GFS concurs with NHC track albeit slightly East...however it initialized the storm too weak as usual and too south...i'd assume a track like this but a tad east is possible if your following the GFS.

Not necessarily, Gustav us sorta moving SW right now so maybe the GFS is on to something. But yes, it's off on intensity.

[dwg71]

GFS seems to follow a central florida scenerio on this run, I would expect the focus to continue you to be La. Any shift east could put NOLA in bullseye.

[dwg71]

GFS is definately La, but wont say its heady for NOLA... yet.

[srainhoutx]

Ridge looks fairly strong over the Great Lakes. The trough is staying out W as well. Keep an eye as these runs ingest NOAA flight data concerning tomorrow's runs.

What effects do these elements have on the projected track?

I suspect a bend back W concerning tracks. I will wait for the Upper Sampling Data to be ingested before I feel some confidence with the models. As wxman57 stated yesterday. We probably would have better luck pulling the lever on a slot machine and hitting the JackPot than being able to pinpoint were this cyclone is going to make an exact landfall at this time.

[KWT]

Indeed the GFS is nearly worst case, a system heading just a fraction west of the island, surge wouldn't be too extreme unless this really powers up and gets to be a fat system but obviously if this is a cat-2/3 by landfall that eastern eyewall would be really horrid.

[rockyman]

18z NOGAPS running

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... =ngp_namer

[deltadog03]

GFS has swung around east...Right?

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS has swung around east...Right?

For landfall and then just unloads on LA in a westward drift stall

[deltadog03]

Ok....hmmmm

[AL Chili Pepper]

18Z GFS 500mb Vort / 102 hrs

[dwg71]

RRUTTT RRRROOHH (scooby speak)

Thats a pretty close to NOLA.

[lonelymike]

18z GFDL to West Mississippi Coast.

[dwg71]

GFDL is persistant, Ill give it that.

[KWT]

Yep but its slowly heading towards LA as well it seems...

[Ivanhater]

GFDL

[lonelymike]

It has been swinging west from Gulf Shores to I guess Gulfport(SW Miss?) over the last runs. I wonder what the southern jog of Gustav over Jamaica will do. South means more west right and north more east or something like that.

[AL Chili Pepper]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L
INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 17.8 76.2 270./ 5.0
6 17.7 76.9 268./ 6.5
12 18.1 77.6 302./ 7.6
18 18.6 78.4 297./ 8.7
24 18.9 79.6 284./11.3
30 19.2 80.4 290./ 8.3
36 19.7 81.5 297./11.6
42 20.4 82.2 312./ 9.6
48 21.3 83.1 316./12.2
54 22.4 84.0 319./13.5
60 23.3 84.9 315./12.9
66 24.5 85.7 330./14.0
72 25.9 86.4 331./14.8
78 27.2 87.1 333./14.2
84 28.5 87.9 326./14.9
90 29.8 88.7 329./15.0
96 31.1 89.7 325./15.1
102 32.3 90.3 333./13.9
108 33.5 91.1 327./13.4
114 34.6 91.6 333./12.0
120 35.5 92.1 333./ 9.6
126 36.2 92.2 353./ 6.8

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The models have been consistent in showing a central gulf coast storm.
Those within the area
all the way from Texas to the Florida Panhandle need to prepare for this storm.
The gulf heat content is explosive, and the coming days Gustav hits the
Gulf, it could get really bad...

[rockyman]

GFDL also shows the system expanding as it moves into the Gulf

[Weatherfreak000]

Where's all the model Input at? UKMET late? Euro?