ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

Where's all the model Input at? UKMET late? Euro?

ukmet only goest out to 48 on 18z runs...Euro is only 00z and 12z

[Weatherfreak000]

Ah, I see. Nap until 11 P.M. it is then! lol.

[lonelymike]

The models have been consistent in showing a central gulf coast storm.
Those within the area
all the way from Texas to the Florida Panhandle need to prepare for this storm.
The gulf heat content is explosive, and the coming days Gustav hits the
Gulf, it could get really bad...

Hey be optimistic. People have plenty of time to evacuate and board up and head inland. Life is more precious than possessions. Appreciate your tender heart,

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL makes landfall near Mobile,Alabama.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The models have been consistent in showing a central gulf coast storm.
Those within the area
all the way from Texas to the Florida Panhandle need to prepare for this storm.
The gulf heat content is explosive, and the coming days Gustav hits the
Gulf, it could get really bad...

Hey be optimistic. People have plenty of time to evacuate and board up and head inland. Life is more precious than possessions. Appreciate your tender heart,

Thanks I'll try. I did make a forecast in the gustav forecast thread that was based on heat content and
I gotta say that the heat content is really high...wish someone would dump a giant iceberg into
it and chill it down...

[lonelymike]

18z GFDL makes landfall near Mobile,Alabama.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Hey cyclone check out the SW fla water district weather page. They have a better graphic of the run. Actually shows it coming into SW Miss.

[PTrackerLA]

Uh, that's not even close to "landfall" in that image.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF tracks to landfall just east of the Texas/LA border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Weatherfreak000]

GFDL seems convinced on a landfall actually EAST of all current model guidance. GFS is coming in line with that as well...although I don't take much stock in the GFS with this storm personally...


00Z models im looking forward to with great interest. Anyone living in Mobile and around that area should as well to see if the other globals begin agreeing.

[PTrackerLA]

18z HWRF tracks to landfall just east of the Texas/LA border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

GFDL vs HWRF, east vs west....hmmm.

HWRF shows landfall on the Vermilion Parish Cameron Parish border as a strong 4. Would send a horrific surge into Vermilion bay on that track. NASTY.

[dwg71]

HWRF is basically an extension of prior and just off of coast and then WNW in SW LA. If anything its just east of last run until it touches coast and then it shoots off west. With GFS coming in line, I would say SWLA to Mississippi are the extremes of the models with consensous still central LA.

[canetracker]

18z HWRF tracks to landfall just east of the Texas/LA border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

GFDL vs HWRF, east vs west....hmmm.

Thats what I was thinking. What can be causing such a split in these two models? Are'nt they both based off the GFS?

[KWT]

Note the HWRF does show that WSW dip at the very start of the run, looks like its coming off just like showed it would, 6hr position for 0z looks very good to me. Just one of those little points of interest.

[Ivanhater]

Didnt the canadian have a huge shift east? I havnt been able to follow today..been a loooong day

[PTrackerLA]

18z HWRF tracks to landfall just east of the Texas/LA border.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

GFDL vs HWRF, east vs west....hmmm.

Thats what I was thinking. What can be causing such a split in these two models? Are'nt they both based off the GFS?

Since I consider these two models closely related, I say split the difference which would result in a St. Mary/Terrebonne parish landfall. Essentially the same as the current NHC track .

[rockyman]

Didnt the canadian have a huge shift east? I havnt been able to follow today..been a loooong day

12z Canadian:

[terrapintransit]

Just wondering what makes them think this will be downgraded to a cat 2 @ landfall? Why would they possibly be thinking that when this thing is forecast to drift slowly westward along the coast? Just curious what they might be seeing.

[stormy1970al]

GFDL seems convinced on a landfall actually EAST of all current model guidance. GFS is coming in line with that as well...although I don't take much stock in the GFS with this storm personally...


00Z models im looking forward to with great interest. Anyone living in Mobile and around that area should as well to see if the other globals begin agreeing.

Yes that one got goosebumps going up my spine. I live on the eastern shore of Mobile Bay.

[dwg71]

they dont, that is after landfall.

[Javlin]

GFDL seems convinced on a landfall actually EAST of all current model guidance. GFS is coming in line with that as well...although I don't take much stock in the GFS with this storm personally...


00Z models im looking forward to with great interest. Anyone living in Mobile and around that area should as well to see if the other globals begin agreeing.

What is kinda interesting is the uncanny way that GFDL for three runs in a row peg hard the trip Gustav has been taking through Jamaica almost to the tee.Quite a few people have said that GFDL might just be consistently wrong and maybe so,we will find out come Friday night ot Saturday morning.One should notice that the NHC line is right in between the HWRF and the GFDL even though there are more models to the left of that line.It just seems that GFDL has latched on to something since the 8/26 and will not let go somewhere between 87'-91' now it's wait and see.