ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The outflow in all quads is "SUPER", I would go as far to say that the upper levels are there for some fast strengthing, but because of the island of Jamaica it should not strengthen intil it moves off it. IF IT KEEPS ITS innercore then watch it explode once it moves back over the 88-90f waters of the northwest caribbean. Now who's to say what kind of damage Jamaica has done to this system, we will be finding out once it gets back over water.

[HURAKAN]

You guys realize that is just the official NHC forecast...right? There is nothing special in and of itself.

I think what is scary in the picture is the potential for four storms.

[jasons2k]

WRT Houston --

The cone runs from about Corpus to Appalachicola. Anywhere, including Houston is at risk at this time.

As noted by Jeff Lindner, other pro-mets, and the NHC, there is considerable - some have said more than usual - uncertainty in the 5-6 day period. It would not be very prudent to think any one place in the cone is particularly safe at this time.

Yes, LA looks like the best option for now. But every "option b" type of scenario I have heard today - some from other sources - mentions a shift west, not east. In other words, I know a few pro mets out there that, privately, are much more concerned about Texas than they are Florida. I'll leave it at that.

[ConvergenceZone]

Countdown? T minus ?................

Well, since this storm obviously has more tenacity than I gave it credit for last night and survived, there's no doubt that it will survive Jamaica without a problem, question is, what time(range) do you think this will be moving off the coast to begin it's ernest intensification phase?..... perhaps between 3:00 am and 6:00 am PST? or is that too late??

[deltadog03]

Cool....FAY...EH, I mean, Gus looks like he has stalled again!!

[HouTXmetro]

Rock here is my opinion. It seems that West of Louisiana the NHC and models always over estimate the Ridges. All the storns usually end up east of the forecasted landfall point. With that said and the current model projections one can only conclude that the same will happen. (I know there is a first for everything but I'm confidently thinking this will end up East of Texas.) At the present the models & NHC seem to support that. If things change I will be the first to point it out and acknowledge that I was wrong. Maybe that is what Ed is thinking too?

Back to Gustav

[Emmett_Brown]

Is it me, or has this whole thing is so slow to unfold... seems like we have been doing this forever...

[6SpeedTA95]

I disagree. Visible gets very tough to pickout cloud motion at night so you are forced to look for a clearing, the IR/WV at least give you some motion and there will be little convection or less convection at the very center of the storm IF it has a defined center.

And again I didn't say it had a eye, I specifically said "potential" eye as I'm watching the convection develop around a specific point and move fairly consistently around that point.

Well I'm not experienced enough to say you're wrong, I'm just going on observations and past mistakes I've made.

If you want to look at all levels in a fairly equal fashion then the rainbow loop is a good one, and oh so pretty to look at.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Both it and the water vapor loop show moisture streaming away from a general central location.

Not trying to argue, just adding my perspective, discussion is healthy ridicule is not We both do things a bit differently, thats not bad!

[jasons2k]

Rock here is my opinion. It seems that West of Louisiana the NHC and models always over estimate the Ridges. All the storns usually end up east of the forecasted landfall point. With that said and the current model projections one can only conclude that the same will happen. (I know there is a first for everything but I'm confidently thinking this will end up East of Texas.) At the present the models & NHC seem to support that. If things change I will be the first to point it out and acknowledge that I was wrong. Maybe that is what Ed is thinking too?

Back to Gustav

Not all storms. Case & point, Allen, 1980.

[Sabanic]

...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
826 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAIN IS PRESENT OF COURSE
AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED OVER THE COMING
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TRACK OF GUSTAV BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
OTHERWISE...EVERYONE IN NEAR THE COAST SHOULD BEGINNING PREPARING
FOR GUSTAV POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANCE CENTER.

[LSU2001]

I disagree. Visible gets very tough to pickout cloud motion at night so you are forced to look for a clearing, the IR/WV at least give you some motion and there will be little convection or less convection at the very center of the storm IF it has a defined center.

And again I didn't say it had a eye, I specifically said "potential" eye as I'm watching the convection develop around a specific point and move fairly consistently around that point.

Well I'm not experienced enough to say you're wrong, I'm just going on observations and past mistakes I've made.

If you want to look at all levels in a fairly equal fashion then the rainbow loop is a good one, and oh so pretty to look at.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Both it and the water vapor loop show moisture streaming away from a general central location.

If you look at the following loop (Rainbow loop) and block out all but the last 3 frames you can see a dry slot moving in and becoming covered up about the same spot and time that the "eye" winked. I really dont think that was an eye.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

JMHO,
Tim

[cpdaman]

hey X-Y-NO i remember two days ago when you were doubting this would make as fast progress westward as the models were calling for - GOOD JOB!

i would like to know more of your thoughts

also what steering layer is guiding this thing

looking at all the steering currents on the cimms page they show either very weak steering flow or WSW/SW motion

i'm not convinced this is about to move WNW or even west at any time soon

[6SpeedTA95]

Is it me, or has this whole thing is so slow to unfold... seems like we have been doing this forever...

Because we have....this storm has been a real mean lady. At one point moving at 3mph and been below 7mph for much of its life.

[ROCK]

Rock here is my opinion. It seems that West of Louisiana the NHC and models always over estimate the Ridges. All the storns usually end up east of the forecasted landfall point. With that said and the current model projections one can only conclude that the same will happen. (I know there is a first for everything but I'm confidently thinking this will end up East of Texas.) At the present the models & NHC seem to support that. If things change I will be the first to point it out and acknowledge that I was wrong. Maybe that is what Ed is thinking too?

Back to Gustav

I dont disagree with your opinion at all and there is a chance you could be right....but we are talking 4 days for those models to stick and that my fellow Texan does not seem practical given some of the runs that have shifted today and will continue to shift as we get closer to the weekend...


BTW- I liked how you presented your opinion and backed it with a sound premise....very civil...thank you...

[Bunkertor]

You guys realize that is just the official NHC forecast...right? There is nothing special in and of itself.

I think what is scary in the picture is the potential for four storms.

Yeah - i´m no pro met but i had the feeling that there´s something more...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Up intill this point this system has done everything to stay on a track to remain weak. This upper level pattern and hot sst's/TCHP could easly support this as a cat4 or even a cat5. If it is stalling over Jamaica, in I don't think it is, because I still see slow westward motion...In which will take it over the caribbean over the next 8 hours. But if it does stall close to Jamaica like it did with Hati, it will confirm to me my thinking above.

[cpdaman]

i wouldn't be surprised if this drifted south west but stayed very close to Southern jamaica and them RI i.e blew up and lashed the southern coast later tonite.

seems everyone is still talking about what it may do in xyz days, but i'm not sure the southern coast of jamaica is out of the woods.

this thing has been moving more SW and slower than forecast and while that doesn't necessarily effect where it will hit in the u.s, i find it very interesting that there is not a good handle on the short term

[lonelymike]

Maybe it's time to give the discussion thread a rest for a while and just glance in at the trop analysis board for a while. People are getting tired and snippy. Not atall the normal attitude here at S2K

[Texashawk]

So to all of you who still think Houston's out of the woods.. a little gift:

[6SpeedTA95]

So to all of you who still think Houston's out of the woods.. a little gift:

These models should be on "So you think you can dance"