ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT

[cycloneye]

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like the NHC is as confused as the models lol.

[gatorcane]

Note what NHC is saying now, thats a bit quicker than before.

GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0241.shtml

[tgenius]

I don't think I've ever seen an NHC map with a space between points.. looks funny (probably a mistake?)

[Bocadude85]

hmm this really seems like its playing out like the Euro has been showing for days...

[lbvbl]

I don't think I've ever seen an NHC map with a space between points.. looks funny (probably a mistake?)

they're forecasting it to become a hurricane on saturday rather than sunday, thats new right?

[gatorcane]

they're forecasting it to become a hurricane on saturday rather than sunday, thats new right?

Unfortunately yes see my comment above

[eastcoastFL]

so does it do a complete loop or just head out to sea???

[lbvbl]

they're forecasting it to become a hurricane on saturday rather than sunday, thats new right?

Unfortunately yes see my comment above

oops didn't notice that. is that SW dip at the end of the model supposed to end there and take a Westernly track, or is it supposed to keep going SW. I know it's very uncertain right now, but what do you think?

[tolakram]

[Bocadude85]

they're forecasting it to become a hurricane on saturday rather than sunday, thats new right?

Unfortunately yes see my comment above

oops didn't notice that. is that SW dip at the end of the model supposed to end there and take a Westernly track, or is it supposed to keep going SW. I know it's very uncertain right now, but what do you think?

I would say watch the Euro has been the best with this system so far IMHO.. btw the Euro dives her sw then turns her west and has her head in the general direction of S Florida/Keys/Cuba.

[lbvbl]

Unfortunately yes see my comment above

oops didn't notice that. is that SW dip at the end of the model supposed to end there and take a Westernly track, or is it supposed to keep going SW. I know it's very uncertain right now, but what do you think?

I would say watch the Euro has been the best with this system so far IMHO.. btw the Euro dives her sw then turns her west and has her head in the general direction of S Florida/Keys/Cuba.

do you have a link?

[jinftl]

Oh boy....SW dip in forecast track early next week is sure to raise eyebrows anywhere along southeast u.s...be interesting to see if trend persists and progresses

[gatorcane]

NHC ups the intensity forecast to 80K as expected.

[Patrick99]

This really is one for SE FL and the Keys to watch closely. I note more easterly flow, maybe even some ENE flow, tonight than I've seen in a few months.

[gatorcane]

NHC already hinting at major hurricane which is very possible. This one, like Gustav, is going to need close monitoring.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 72 AND 96
HOURS...AND HANNA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY
THE GFDL MODEL

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0259.shtml

[cpdaman]

this is some of the most impressive DEEP convection I have seen in the Atlantic basin in quite sometime

The thought keeps crossing my mind that maybe Hanna will be the more powerful of the duo --- hmmm

yes it is impressive convection , especially SE of the center

the convection over the center is waning right now, lets see if more spring up or if the LLC pops out again on IR2

[Bocadude85]

NHC already hinting at major hurricane which is very possible. This one, like Gustav, is going to need close monitoring.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 72 AND 96
HOURS...AND HANNA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY
THE GFDL MODEL

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0259.shtml

was just about to mention that gator.. definately need to keep a close eye on her

[jinftl]

The last 2 days have been sunny and breezy....all day....definite indication of strong easterly flow....haven't seen much of that this summer so far

This really is one for SE FL and the Keys to watch closely. I note more easterly flow, maybe even some ENE flow, tonight than I've seen in a few months.