ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Sub 900 is a tall order indeed. But if there were a setup to do it, this would be it.

The other storms I think might have been sub-900 but weren't recorded as such:

1919 Keys Hurricane - 927mb in Dry Tortugas, but the Loop Current awaited and it was deepening at the time - my guess is 894mb.

Janet - Given that it was 914mb while a mid-range Cat 4 and deepened to 150 kt by landfall, I think it was around 898mb.

Camille - Between the flights, I think it got to about 895mb.

[srainhoutx]

I made this post on "our local forum" and hope it will be received in the same spirit here on S2K...

I can almost say for certain that the models will shift E and W for the next several days. Folks, one thing to remember. The stress level is going to increase for everyone to some degree over the next few days. It has been my experience that the most stressfull times are in the days leading up to the arrival of a cyclone, not the hours before landfall. Some will want to watch every wobble of the center, swing of the models, blow up of convection etc.. Stay informed and have a plan should you need to evacuate. There will be enough time to know when you need to put your plan into action. Just my two cents worth. Stay Safe everyone.

[gboudx]

Well if you are looking at your area getting hit and quite possibly losing everything that you have worked for all your life I can certainly understand the stress. Katrina was a mean lady and I can certainly understand the craziness this storms can unleash. Prayer does change things is all I will say.

Yep I agree. Born and raised on the Westbank in New Orleans and have lot of family who were displaced from Katrina and are stressed right now. But they all have reservations and getting the HE double hockey sticks out on Saturday.

[michaelder]

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage1.asp

Link to Jamaica Met Service Radar

[cpdaman]

anyone wanna discuss the possibility for rapid deepening later tonite


or perhaps the current steering flow and how long this may drift sw/wsw for

anyone have a radar link to jamaica i can't find one but i know aric dunn had a shot of one up earlier but he's off line soo........bueller.....

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/

thank you , it says radar time 1930 what the heck time is that

[CrazyC83]

Hey crazy, long time no see, how the heck have you been?

What are you thinking right now on Gustav? Any thoughts on landfall and current model runs?

Gustav: Some weakening in the next few hours, then re-organizing and rapid deepening starting tomorrow night into a Cat 4 or 5 by Saturday as it goes into extremely warm water. In the Gulf, I think the intensity will then be steady or slow weakening (from Cat 4 or 5 mind you), and I am thinking on the left side of models in western Louisiana as a Cat 3. However, it could go anywhere from about Port Lavaca to Pensacola.

[tolakram]

To add to my post above (about 15 posts back now ), why wouldn't Gustav continue to move very slowly or south west?

There's something I don;t understand about steering, that's for sure.

[6SpeedTA95]

Hey crazy, long time no see, how the heck have you been?

What are you thinking right now on Gustav? Any thoughts on landfall and current model runs?

Gustav: Some weakening in the next few hours, then re-organizing and rapid deepening starting tomorrow night into a Cat 4 or 5 by Saturday as it goes into extremely warm water. In the Gulf, I think the intensity will then be steady or slow weakening (from Cat 4 or 5 mind you), and I am thinking on the left side of models in western Louisiana as a Cat 3. However, it could go anywhere from about Port Lavaca to Pensacola.

Yeah its pretty much all over the map. I'm hoping that it doesn't ravage natural gas alley though That would result in substantial expenses for my company and a lot more work for me in the coming weeks

[rockyman]

Advisories rolling in:

outlook valid 02/0000z 28.5n 90.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Outlook valid 03/0000z 30.0n 92.5w...inland
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.

Previous Advisory:
96hr VT 01/1800z 28.0n 89.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 02/1800z 30.0n 91.5w 85 kt...inland

[hurrican19]

if not for the 2004/2005 season, i dont think we'd be NEARLY as active on this forum as the years prior to 2004/2005.. We'd be active here, yes, but not 250 pages.. We're ALL a lot more on edge since 2004/2005.. This is going to be a very interesting few days ahead.

[Portastorm]

Advisories rolling in:

outlook valid 02/0000z 28.5n 90.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Outlook valid 03/0000z 30.0n 92.5w...inland
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.

Previous Advisory:
96hr VT 01/1800z 28.0n 89.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 02/1800z 30.0n 91.5w 85 kt...inland

Looks like a slight nudge west.

[Frank P]

Advisories rolling in:

outlook valid 02/0000z 28.5n 90.5w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.

Outlook valid 03/0000z 30.0n 92.5w...inland
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.

Previous Advisory:
96hr VT 01/1800z 28.0n 89.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 02/1800z 30.0n 91.5w 85 kt...inland

without seeing a map I think that is a slight shift west

[cycloneye]

West Shift.

[6SpeedTA95]

You guys might want to consider posting pics from somewhere other than directly off the NOAA site because if NOAA slows down it slows down storm2k. Might upload the pic somewhere else....just a thought.

[StormWarning1]

anyone wanna discuss the possibility for rapid deepening later tonite


or perhaps the current steering flow and how long this may drift sw/wsw for

anyone have a radar link to jamaica i can't find one but i know aric dunn had a shot of one up earlier but he's off line soo........bueller.....

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/

thank you , it says radar time 1930 what the heck time is that

Eastern Standard Time 1930 or 7:30 pm.

[ROCK]

slight west bend in this package as depicted by some of the models......might be a trend we shall see...

[6SpeedTA95]

WTNT32 KNHC 290231
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

...CENTER OF GUSTAV CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF JAMAICA...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA...FOR THE
PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND
CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 275
MILES...445 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN JAMAICA TONIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...AND APPROACH WESTERN CUBA ON
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN
CUBA. RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER HAITI TONIGHT...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.8 N...77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Stormcenter]

Look how slow is moves!!!!!!!!!

[Air Force Met]

Wonder why they are so conservative. I guess they will wait til it hits Cat 2 or 3 in the next 24 hours to get it right.

They did bump it up some...

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.5N 87.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

[vaffie]

It seems the NHC is going with the idea too--slowing down the storm significantly and turning it westbound at the end. Very concerning to say the least.