ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

NOT MY FORECAST, FROM NHC!

THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0301.shtml

I would have increased the intensity forecast at the 72 and 96 hour points as a result. I do agree that it has a good chance at Category 4, and Category 5 is very realistic as well.

[pablolopez26]

No offense to anyone but I'm sticking with the NHC's tracks. They've been in the business a long long time.

Thats always a safe bet.

They are the pro's.

[Stormcenter]

The NHC mentions it so it's obviously a possibility.
Now this would be GREAT news for everyone along the Gulf coast.

A complicating factor is the
upper-level trough currently seen in water vapor imagery over the
Gulf of Mexico. The large-scale models forecast this feature to
retreat westward as Gustav approaches...with high pressure building
over the southeastern Gulf. However...the models do not agree on
how much the trough will move...with the UKMET in particular
showing the possibility of shear as Gustav approaches the northern
Gulf Coast.

[crazycajuncane]

I am hoping that this storm does pull a Lili and ramp up and possibly sputter at the last minute. Intensity forecast has been a problem for this storm. There's a big difference in a Cat 2 and Cat 4 at your coastline. I also notice towards the end of the run the high will either push it west or it'll slow it down.

WOW this storm is really something else.

[Sean in New Orleans]

NOT MY FORECAST, FROM NHC!

THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99
KT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT.
THE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL. HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5
HURRICANE BY 72 HR.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0301.shtml

Katrina was never forecasted to become a 4 or 5 in the initial forecasts by the NHC. It just blew up to a Cat. 5 over the GOM--somewhat unexpectedly. As previously stated, this is 5 days out, so it is just too hard to say where this will go. The only thing we can really use the 5 day out forecast is for planning purposes. We won't know anything much more specific where we have a feel of where it is going to hit until Saturday, IMO. Right now, it is just a watching game, but, this is a fact: Somebody is going to get it--somebody is definitely going to get hit on the N. GOM with a major hurricane. And I really feel, at this point, Houston should be making the same emergency plans as New Orleans. If either city gets hit by a Cat. 4 or Cat. 5, you can count on that city to be dark for close to a month.

[cpdaman]

my g/f has been getting calls from her friends/family in La for the last couple days, they are pretty scared, i think more people may die of heart attacks from the stress in the next few days, than should there be a NO, actual landfall.

[pablolopez26]

Yeah if Houston were ever threatened with a Cat 4 or Cat 5, you can bet that my butt and car will be making a trip to Dallas awefully quick.

I will say that the cone of discertainty is 600 miles long so there is a 300 mile error cushion on either side of the line.

Gustavs movements will be dependant upon another high pressure system that may develop to its north. This high could force the storm toward Texas, especially if Gustav's forward speed slows sufficiently during the coming days.

[Enzo Aquarius]

I have a feeling, in the next two or three days, Gustav is going to be all over the news, with landfall receiving Katrina-like coverage. Then again, Gustav is already making news...with gasoline and oil prices.

[cpdaman]

Yeah if Houston were ever threatened with a Cat 4 or Cat 5, you can bet that my butt and car will be making a trip to Dallas awefully quick.

I will say that the cone of discertainty is 600 miles long so there is a 300 mile error cushion on either side of the line.

Gustavs movements will be dependant upon another high pressure system that may develop to its north. This high could force the storm toward Texas, especially if Gustav's forward speed slows sufficiently during the coming days.

i don't think his forward speed could slow any more in the coming days, it would be very bad for the board's health.

combine gustav and hannah (now forecast to be a hurricane east of fl by sat nite) and this place will be wild by sunday nite.

[6SpeedTA95]

I have a feeling, in the next two or three days, Gustav is going to be all over the news, with landfall receiving Katrina-like coverage. Then again, Gustav is already making news...with gasoline and oil prices.

It is indeed. I really hope it misses gas alley and avoids most of the platforms but that appears unlikely. That means i"ll be absurdly busy at work and we will incur millions in expenses. Looks like hte best we can hope for a is a weak storm as it approaches shore.

I also think that the storm will almost certinaly have to gain some forward momentum within the next 48hrs which may act ot amplify the shear (if there is any) that a couple of the models seem to be picking up.

[Stormcenter]

I have a feeling, in the next two or three days, Gustav is going to be all over the news, with landfall receiving Katrina-like coverage. Then again, Gustav is already making news...with gasoline and oil prices.

Gustav is already all over the news.

[Enzo Aquarius]

combine gustav and hannah (now forecast to be a hurricane east of fl by sat nite) and this place will be wild by sunday nite.

I don't think anybody in the Gulf is going to be spared this month. Gustav has gone over (or near) Haiti, Dominican Republic, over Jamaica right now, will go buy the Yucatan and near Cuba. Then Hanna, if it follows the current track, could rain down on Cuba full on while dumping rain on the Bahamas.

[Stormcenter]

I like the NAM model. Not that I wish anything bad on the good people
of Mexico.

[Ivanhater]

I like the NAM model. Not that I wish anything bad on the good people
of Mexico.

It switched way east of the yucatan solution

[crazycajuncane]

The weather story tonight really interesting.

Gustav may stall down the road and then Hanna is on the heels, but as they said. One storm at a time please!

I thought today was crazy at work, but tomorrow will be nuts. I work in New Iberia and they are talking about moving 75 million dollars of inventory up the state. Not only do we have a possible huge hurricane coming, but so much to worry about!

[pablolopez26]

All -removed- aside, i certainly hope this storm hits where Edouord hit. In the middle of nowhere, causing minimal damage to life and property.

[sphelps8681]

Local Met just forcasted landfall sw la/se tx.

[pablolopez26]

Apparently though the one saving grace from Gustavs potential wrath will be high shear that it will encounter once its enters the Gulf on Saturday.

Other than that the models are moving west.

[HouTXmetro]

All -removed- aside, i certainly hope this storm hits where Edouord hit. In the middle of nowhere, causing minimal damage to life and property.

NO YOU DON'T, Do you realize if this hit where Eduard hit as a Cat 3 or Higher Houston and Galveston would be DEVASTED? Not to mention terible surger into Beamont/PA and all along the SW Lousiana coast.

[pablolopez26]

NO YOU DON'T, Do you realize if this hit where Eduard hit as a Cat 3 or Higher Houston and Galveston would be DEVASTED?

I thought Eduord (sp) made landfall on some Big Bend State Park or something with minimal squalls and activity in the Houston suburban areas.