ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

00z gfs..Mobile Alabama

[ROCK]

Mobile is hit?

[Weatherfreak000]

GFS = your brain on drugs

has been a very reliable model... dont discount it because you dont agree with out put.
gfdl has similar path.

overall i agree with you, but with Gus, its been pretty whack... ill just stick with NHC instead of going with one specific model...

If that's the case, quit following the LINE. IT'S EXACTLY what they tell you NOT to do.

The NHC is telling you they have NO CLUE where it's going. So take the GFS into consideration...as well as the NOGAPS.

[GeneratorPower]

108 hours -- Mobile Bay. Ivan, I'll split it with you 50/50 and we break even.

[dwg71]

should adjust the gfs based models east...

[Stormcenter]

Correct me if I'm wrong didn't the GFDL have TX/SW La. as a possible
landfall this past Monday? Why do I believe there is a decent chance this model may win the landfall prize?

[PTPatrick]

AL/MS line landfall at 102 hours...mmmkkk! 250 mile shift east in one run. Glad the models are reliable. Now...my parents a few miles in from Dauphin Island would ca ca in their britches if they saw this!

[Air Force Met]

GFS = your brain on drugs

has been a very reliable model... dont discount it because you dont agree with out put.
gfdl has similar path.

Reliable? Your joking right? So which run do you agree with? The one you want...because it takes it near your prediction? Or the one that drifted the storm SW along the Texas coast 12 hours ago?

It has ounced around between going east and drifting it west at the LA coast for the past several runs. That is not the definition of reliable.

[Matthew Williams]

Ivan do you notice how long Gustav appears to be staying in Mobile Bay on this run? It seems as if the steering currents do break as it makes landfall.

[ROCK]

whats that difference? about 100+ miles??


250 miles....ok that is like an about face and barely in the cone...

[GeneratorPower]

Ivanhater, this run puts you on the dirty right-front quadrant. Nice.

[dwg71]

GFS = your brain on drugs

has been a very reliable model... dont discount it because you dont agree with out put.
gfdl has similar path.

Reliable? Your joking right? So which run do you agree with? The one you want...because it takes it near your prediction? Or the one that drifted the storm SW along the Texas coast 12 hours ago?

It has ounced around between going east and drifting it west at the LA coast for the past several runs. That is not the definition of reliable.

i was talking about overall runs, not just this storm...

It has been going slightly east the past 3 runs if memory serves...

[Ivanhater]

I think this just shows, people need to step back sometimes..models change..everyone from Texas to Florida need to keep up to date and not get hung up on every model run

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, this run puts you on the dirty right-front quadrant. Nice.

Well I still dont think it gets that close..but it did stop me from getting a good nights rest!

[PTPatrick]

We saw steering currents break down in that area with Danny and Georges...not an all together uncommon occurance apparently Now...reality...GFS always bumps back and forth this many days out. I have seen this plenty with storms coming in from the Carrib....its Apalachicola! Its Panama City! ITs MObile! Its NOLA! Its Tampa! Its NOLA...etc. etc. etc. lets put this in perspective. About all we can take out of this is that NO...AL and even the panhandle are not out of the question yet. Just because the NHC line is up the Louisiana Bayous...much can change in 4 days...actually even 6 hours apparently.

[dwg71]

the trend is what im looking at, it may be whack, who knows... but the same north turn has been there the last 3 runs..

time will tell, its just one model...

[srainhoutx]

Remember. No G-IV data for this run. P-3 flights were drops for the loop current today. Tomorrow will be a bit different with that Upper air data ingested.

[ROCK]

making a loop? pushing back into the GOM.....

[Jason_B]

Don't understand why the models keep wanting to go more eastward when it's moving due west, even the NHC track is way to far north IMO. The more it trucks on west the more that cone will have to go west despite what the models say.

[PTPatrick]

Having said all this...was it just me or was the 11pm disc DECIDEDLY more, how shall we say...."concerning" for possibly stronger storm than even a cat 3. So far they really seemed to push the CAT 3/2 threshold...now all this talk of, dont be surprised if it makes cat 5?