ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[shelby]

Maybe Devasted was to extreme of a word. My point is that a strong Hurricane with heading of Eduoard would not be good for Houston. The coast is heavily populated and the Eastern/NE Suburbs would take a good amount of Damage. Not too mention Beaumont and Port Arthor would take the Brunt of the storm.

Do we have a new center fix? I can't tell if the center has moved back North of the Island. It appears that way to me.

No offense. But that that still doesn't make sense. If a strong cane came in on Eduardo's path, how would it effect the Eastern and NE suburbs. If I remember right, it made landfall below Corpus. IMO - it would be a little south to cause what you saying but I never say never. JMO

You must be thinking of Dolly, which did hit down there. Edouard hit Beaumont/Port Arthur.

My bad - you are right was thing about Dolly. Retract my statement. Sorry

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Recon is getting close! I wonder if Gus will be found as a hurricane, you just never know! RW

It has spent to much time close to Jamaica. I don't expect them to find more then 50 knot surface winds and 65 knot flight level tops. I also expect it will take another 8 hours to clear the island.

[dwg71]

apologies in advance..OT

i have a link at work of a water vapor loop, that covers most of atlantic, carribean and us...

can someone help me out, im at home.

[cpdaman]

Recon is getting close! I wonder if Gus will be found as a hurricane, you just never know! RW

It has spent to much time close to Jamaica. I don't expect them to find more then 50 knot surface winds and 65 knot flight level tops. I also expect it will take another 8 hours to clear the island.

at least, that is why i was surprised the NHC is calling for landfall late monday. i guess it will finally get a move on soon

[Air Force Met]

apologies in advance..OT

i have a link at work of a water vapor loop, that covers most of atlantic, carribean and us...

can someone help me out, im at home.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[bayoubebe]

Recon is getting close! I wonder if Gus will be found as a hurricane, you just never know! RW

It has spent to much time close to Jamaica. I don't expect them to find more then 50 knot surface winds and 65 knot flight level tops. I also expect it will take another 8 hours to clear the island.

at least, that is why i was surprised the NHC is calling for landfall late monday. i guess it will finally get a move on soon

I thought landfall was pushed to Tuesday(evening)?

From the NHC:

IT IS SIMPLY
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV
WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.

[Stormcenter]

Next package will be interesting as the GFS just swung way EAST (Mobile, AL). I guess we'll just have to evacuate the entire gulf coast.

A very weird run though.

[dwg71]

Next package will be interesting as the GFS just swung way EAST (Mobile, AL). I guess we'll just have to evacuate the entire gulf coast.

A very weird run though.

wierd at the end, but pretty straight forward for a landfall just over 4 days in or around ms al state line.

lets get more support before we jump on bandwagon.

[Texas Snowman]

Perhaps my memory is faulty, but I don't have much faith in the GFS for Gustav.

It's been all over the place hasn't it, one run near Corpus, then Central Louisiana, now the AL/MS line? If we can get a run showing it hitting Tampa and another showing it hitting Key West, it has pretty much shotgunned around the U.S. Gulf Coast.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Perhaps my memory is faulty, but I don't have much faith in the GFS for Gustav.

It's been all over the place hasn't it, one run near Corpus, then Central Louisiana, now the AL/MS line? If we can get a run showing it hitting Tampa and another showing it hitting Key West, it has pretty much shotgunned around the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Well, obviously we want to look for consistency with the models. Rogue model runs are rarely correct, but, there was a roque model with Isidore (can't remember which one) that turned out to be RIGHT and all of the consistent models were WRONG. We've got plenty of watching to do--certainly if Gus were to enter the GOM now, it would turn right and slam into Tampa. But, that trough is expected to lift by the time Gus arrives--Or is it? Is the GFS the first model to pick up on something? We'll know alot more tomorrow.

[Evac3]

Cool, free hurricane tracking program for those of y'all who don't already have it... http://www.hurricanesoftware.com/

[Wx_Warrior]

In its defense, several other models have been doing a little skipping of their own.

[HouTXmetro]

It looks like Gus has stalled again. IMO this should have been well past Jamaica tonight.

[LAwxrgal]

The fact is, Gustav has been very unpredictable and NOBODY knows where he's going. He'll probably keep the whole gulf coast on edge pretty much right until he makes landfall and probably after that too.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The fact is, Gustav has been very unpredictable and NOBODY knows where he's going. He'll probably keep the whole gulf coast on edge pretty much right until he makes landfall and probably after that too.

It's just far out--this is classic when we are looking at 5 day cones of error. When the system is 60 hours out from landfall, I'm confident that we will be able to narrow in on the landfall area within a couple of hundred miles--maybe even closer. Everybody is excited and anxious for obvious reasons, but, we're still just in a watching mode--just like the NHC and local mets from Texas to Florida.

[LAwxrgal]

The fact is, Gustav has been very unpredictable and NOBODY knows where he's going. He'll probably keep the whole gulf coast on edge pretty much right until he makes landfall and probably after that too.

It's just far out--this is classic when we are looking at 5 day cones of error. When the system is 60 hours out from landfall, I'm confident that we will be able to narrow in on the landfall area within a couple of hundred miles--maybe even closer. Everybody is excited and anxious for obvious reasons, but, we're still just in a watching mode--just like the NHC and local mets from Texas to Florida.

Yeah. Remember 5 days out K was forecast to hit the Florida Panhandle. Then that Friday (3 days before landfall) the models made a huge bend west and pretty much had a 60 mile agreement on where she was headed. You and I both know what happened next.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea, i posted an article earlier showing where NHC Rita/Katrina/Wilma @ this same distance as Gustav. They nailed Wilma and were way off with the other 2.

[cpdaman]

there is so much uncertainty in the short term and the long term even with the current track and wether the ridge will build in over the S E GOM and how much, i.e wether the current trough over the gulf will move much west or wether this could be more sheared long term, also discussion mentions north shear impacting storm right now, this is a big mess and i am growing more skeptical this will amount to "a major or a monster" .

[Sean in New Orleans]

The fact is, Gustav has been very unpredictable and NOBODY knows where he's going. He'll probably keep the whole gulf coast on edge pretty much right until he makes landfall and probably after that too.

It's just far out--this is classic when we are looking at 5 day cones of error. When the system is 60 hours out from landfall, I'm confident that we will be able to narrow in on the landfall area within a couple of hundred miles--maybe even closer. Everybody is excited and anxious for obvious reasons, but, we're still just in a watching mode--just like the NHC and local mets from Texas to Florida.

Yeah. Remember 5 days out K was forecast to hit the Florida Panhandle. Then that Friday (3 days before landfall) the models made a huge bend west and pretty much had a 60 mile agreement on where she was headed. You and I both know what happened next.

I remember when I saw that model change for the first time--I was at work and we all freaked. This type of stuff is a good reminder to people while we discuss Gus. We just really don't know. The only reason Louisiana and metro New Orleans has been discussed so much is we have had consistency for 3 days on this area with Gus, which is certainly suspect. However, all should know that these things can change, and basically, everyone within the cone of error should be finalizing their plans. Alot of people will be evacuating and this evacuation could be quite massive, which means, again, we'll have people driving 300, 400, or even 500 miles to find a hotel or campground that can accomodate them.