ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Texas Snowman]

I posted this earlier, but I think no one noticed.

Check out Houston Chron Sci Guy Eric Berger's blog entry on the idea of five-day forecast errors with Katrina, Rita, and Wilma as some examples. Has some good material and charts to consider.

Go to this link:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy

Then scroll down to this entry: How much can we trust the five-day forecast?

Good read as we're all trying to watch and figure out Gustav's future moves.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the approximate location, it should be back over water for good in the next 2 hours or so.

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, just read where Gustav's death toll in Haiti and DR stands at 67 people.

Terrible news - my prayers are with those who are suffering and those who are ministering to those who are suffering.

[LAwxrgal]

FYI, just read where Gustav's death toll in Haiti and DR stands at 67 people.

Terrible news - my prayers are with those who are suffering and those who are ministering to those who are suffering.

And I expect more deaths as they get around to those areas still inacessible. There was one story I read where one lady died clutching her 11 month old baby as they were buried.

[cpdaman]

17.9/ 77.6 possible recon fix over jamaican hills/mountains just inland along the southern central coast. good nite this one will be over western jamaica/ or barely offshore when i wake up

[RL3AO]

17.9/ 77.6 possible recon fix over jamaican hills/mountains just inland along the southern central coast. good nite this one will be over western jamaica/ or barely offshore when i wake up

Thats only 12 miles east of water and also 3 miles north of water.

[Texashawk]

17.9/ 77.6 possible recon fix over jamaican hills/mountains just inland along the southern central coast. good nite this one will be over western jamaica/ or barely offshore when i wake up

actually... that puts the center only about 10 miles from freedom from Jamaica's 'land jail' - should be off within an hour or two

[Wx_Warrior]

Yea, a little slow movement tonight...I went on a cruise in February to DR, Barbados, Dominica, etc....Some of those villages were put together with vines, logs, mud....the decent neighborhoods looked like they were built decades ago.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The winds only support around 45 knots as of this time, also pressure around 997 millibars. Jamaica kicked it down good. It will likely take 12-15 hours for it to redevelop a full innercore once back over water. Once that happens we have to see how fast it is moving, if it don't move any faster then it currently is or slightly faster, it could have up to 48-60 hours of strengthing, possibity explosive kind. We will see. I believe the nhc is doing a good job.

[attallaman]

Cool, free hurricane tracking program for those of y'all who don't already have it... http://www.hurricanesoftware.com/

Do you have the software installed on your computer and if you do is it as it claims to be free of spyware and adware?

[Nexus]

Eclipse over:

[Evac3]

Cool, free hurricane tracking program for those of y'all who don't already have it... http://www.hurricanesoftware.com/

Do you have the software installed on your computer and if you do is it as it claims to be free of spyware and adware?

Yeah. I've had it for about a month and it's great. No signs of spyware or adware. All kinda neat gadgets all in one place.

[Nexus]

Recon on the way back in and will likely get a better fix on the center this pass, but you can see from the wind shifts from the last pass, about where it is:

[Nexus]

While the core took a beating over terrain, it has the look of something that could wrap itself back up quite quickly. Much of the overall storm was never over the island, and the central comma shaped convection over land appears to still be very energetic.

[Scorpion]

Pressure seems around 990 mb.

[Texashawk]

Finding the center would be easier if they could overfly Jamaica - surprised that the govt won't let them, seeing as how the storm is still battering their island...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Center appears to be back over water with a pressure of 992 millibars. Latest satellite shows convection firing big time near the center with great shape. I expect this to strength very very fast now.

[Cyclenall]

Finding the center would be easier if they could overfly Jamaica - surprised that the govt won't let them, seeing as how the storm is still battering their island...

It's far too dangerous to do that over land flying at that height...especially during night! They could crash the plane and all die.

Center appears to be back over water with a pressure of 992 millibars. Latest satellite shows convection firing big time near the center with great shape. I expect this to strength very very fast now.

Check my post in the recon discussion thread. Those are exactly my thoughts.

[wxmann_91]

Finding the center would be easier if they could overfly Jamaica - surprised that the govt won't let them, seeing as how the storm is still battering their island...

Turbulence is greater over land due to frictional effects and whatnot, so recon isn't allowed to fly over land when they're investigating storms.

[Texashawk]

Finding the center would be easier if they could overfly Jamaica - surprised that the govt won't let them, seeing as how the storm is still battering their island...

Turbulence is greater over land due to frictional effects and whatnot, so recon isn't allowed to fly over land when they're investigating storms.

ah. Makes sense. I stand corrected.